Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time

Savannas constitute the most fire-prone vegetation type on earth and are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Most savanna fires are lit by people for a variety of livelihood applications. ‘Savanna burning’ is an accountable activity under the Kyoto Protocol, but only Australia, as a developed economy, accounts for emissions from this source in its national accounts. Over the past decade considerable effort has been given to developing savanna burning projects in northern Australia, combining customary indigenous (Aboriginal) approaches to landscape-scale fire management with development of scientifically robust emissions accounting methodologies. Formal acceptance by the Australian Government of that methodology, and its inclusion in Australia’s developing emissions trading scheme, paves the way for Aboriginal people to commercially benefit from savanna burning projects. The paper first describes this Australian experience, and then explores options for implementing community-based savanna burning emissions reduction projects in other continental savanna settings, specifically in Namibia and Venezuela. These latter examples illustrate that savanna fire management approaches potentially have broader application for contributing to livelihood opportunities in other fire-prone savanna regions.     

Regularized Bayesian estimation for GEV-B-splines model

Large observed datasets are not stationary and/or depend on covariates, especially, in the case of extreme hydrometeorological variables. This causes the difficulty in estimation, using classical hydrological frequency analysis. A number of non-stationary models have been developed using linear or quadratic polynomial functions or B-splines functions to estimate the relationship between parameters and covariates. In this article, we propose regularised generalized extreme value model with B-splines (GEV-B-splines models) in a Bayesian framework to estimate quantiles. Regularisation is based on penalty and aims to favour parsimonious model especially in the case of large dimension space. Penalties are introduced in a Bayesian framework and the corresponding priors are detailed. Five penalties are considered and the corresponding priors are developed for comparison purpose as: Least absolute shrinkage and selection (Lasso and Ridge) and smoothing clipped absolute deviations (SCAD) methods (SCAD1, SCAD2 and SCAD3). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed for each model to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. Those approaches are tested and illustrated using simulated data with different sample sizes. A first simulation was made on polynomial B-splines functions in order to choose the most efficient model in terms of relative mean biais (RMB) and the relative mean-error (RME) criteria. A second simulation was performed with the SCAD1 penalty for sinusoidal dependence to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed approach. Results show clearly that the regularized approaches leads to a significant reduction of the bias and the mean square error, especially for small sample sizes (n < 100). A case study has been considered to model annual peak flows at Fort-Kent catchment with the total annual precipitations as covariates. The conditional quantile curves were given for the regularized and the maximum likelihood methods.     

Stability of elevated liquid-filled conical tanks under seismic loading,Part I—theory

Conical steel shells are widely used as water containments for elevated tanks. However, the current codes for design of water structures do not specify any procedure for handling the seismic design of such structures. In this paper, a numerical model is developed for studying the stability of liquid-filled conical tanks subjected to seismic loading. The model involves a previously formulated consistent shell element with geometric and material non-linearities included. A boundary element formulation is derived to obtain the hydrodynamic pressure resulting from both the horizontal and the vertical components of seismic motion acting on a conical tank which is prevented from rocking. The boundary element formulation leads to a fluid added-mass matrix which is incorporated with the shell element formulation to perform non-linear dynamic stability analysis of such tanks subjected to both horizontal and vertical components of ground motion. Although, the formulation was developed for conical vessels, it is general and can be easily modified to study the stability of any liquid-filled shell of revolution subjected to seismic loading. The accuracy of fluid added-mass formulation was verified by performing the free vibration analysis of liquid-filled cylindrical tanks and comparing the results to those available in the literature. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Threshold of motion of bivalve and gastropod shells under oscillatory flow in flume experiments

The threshold of motion of non-fragmented mollusc shells was studied for the first time under oscillatory flow. In this regard, flume experiments were used to investigate the threshold of motion of three bivalve and three gastropod species, two typical mollusc classes of coastal coquina deposits. The sieve diameters ranged from 2·0 to 15·9 mm. These experiments were performed on a flat-bottom setup under regular non-breaking waves (swell) produced by a flap-type wave generator. The critical Shields values for each species of mollusc were plotted against the sieve and nominal diameter. Moreover, the dimensionless Corey shape factor of the shells was evaluated in order to investigate the effect of mollusc shell shapes on the threshold of motion. According to their critical Shields parameter, the mollusc threshold data under oscillatory flow present smaller values than the siliciclastic sediments when considering their sieve diameter. In addition, the mollusc datasets are below the empirical curves built from siliciclastic grain data under current and waves. When considering the nominal diameter, the critical Shields parameter increases and the mollusc data are closer to siliciclastic sediments. Bivalves, which have a flat-concave shape (form factor: 0·27 to 0·37), have a higher critical Shields parameter for smaller particles and more uniform datasets than the gastropod scattered data, which have a rounded shape (form factor: 0·58 to 0·62) and have varied morphologies (ellipsoidal, conical and cubic). The comparison between previous current-driven threshold data of bioclastic sediment motion and the data of mollusc whole shells under oscillatory flow shows a fair correlation on the Shields diagram, in which all datasets are below the mean empirical curves for siliciclastic sediments. These findings indicate that the shape effect on the transport initiation is predominant for smaller shells. The use of the nominal diameter is satisfactory to improve the bioclastic and siliciclastic data correlation.     

Geochemical and geochronological characteristics of the Um Rus granite intrusion and associated gold deposit,Eastern Desert,Egypt

The Um Rus tonalite-granodiorite intrusion(~6 km2)occurs at the eastern end of the Neoproterozoic,ENE-trending Wadi Muba rak shear belt in the Central Eastern Desert of Egypt.Gold-bearing quartz veins hosted by the Um Rus intrusion were mined intermittently,and initially by the ancient Egyptians and until the early 1900 s.The relationship between the gold mineralization,host intrusion,and regional structures has always been unclear.We present new geochemical and geochronological data that help to define the tectonic environment and age of the Um Rus intrusion.In addition,field studies are integrated with EPMA and LA-ICP-MS data for gold-associated sulfides to better understand the formation and distribution of gold mineralization.The bulk-rock geochemical data of fresh host rocks indicate a calc-alkaline,metaluminous to mildly peraluminous,I-type granite signature.Their trace element composition reflects a tectonic setting intermediate between subduction-related and within-plate environments,presumably transitional between syn-and post-collisional stages.The crystallization age of the Um Rus intrusion was determined by in situ SHRIMP 206 Pb/238 U and 207Pb/235U measurements on accessory monazite grains.The resultant monazite U-Pb weighted mean age(643±9 Ma;MSWD 1.8)roughly overlaps existing geochronological data for similar granitic intrusions that are confined to major shear systems and are locally associated with gold mineralization in the Central Eastrn Desert(e.g.,Fawakhir and Hangaliya).This age is also consistent with magmatism recognized as concomitant to transpressional tectonics(D2:~650 Ma)during the evolution of the Wadi Mubark belt.Formation of the gold-bearing quartz veins in NNE-SSW and N-S striking fault segments was likely linked to the change from transpressional to transtensional tectonics and terrane exhumation(D3:620-580 Ma).The development of N-S throughgoing fault arrays and dike swarms(~595 Ma)led to heterogeneous deformation and recrystallization of the mineralized quartz veins.Ore minerals in the auriferous quartz veins include ubiquitous pyrite and arsenopyrite,with less abundant pyrrhotite,chalcopyrite,sphalerite,and galena.Uncommon pentlandite,gersdorffite,and cobaltite inclusions hosted in quartz veins with meladiorite slivers are interpreted as pre-ore sulfide phases.The gold-sulfide paragenesis encompasses an early pyrite-arsenopyrite±loellingite assemblage,a transitional pyrite-arsenopyrite assemblage,and a late pyrrhotite-chalcopyrite-sphalerite±galena assemblage.Free-milling gold/electrum grains(10 sμm-long)are scattered in extensively deformed vein quartz and in and adjacent to sulfide grains.Marcasite,malachite,and nodular goethite are authigenic alteration phases after pyrrhotite,chalcopyrite,and pyrite and arsenopyrite,respectively.A combined ore petrography,EPMA,and LA-ICP-MS study distinguishes morphological and compositional differences in the early and transitional pyrites(PyⅠ,PyⅡ)and arsenopyrite(ApyⅠ,ApyⅡ).Py I forms uncommon small euhedral inclusions in later PyⅡand Apy II.PyⅡforms large subhedral crystals with porous inner zones and massive outer zones,separated by narrow As-rich irregular mantles.The Fe and As contents in PyⅡare variable,and the LA-ICP-MS analysis shows erratic concentrations of Au(<1 to 177 ppm)and other trace elements(e.g.,Ag,Te,and Sb)in the porous inner zones,most likely related to discrete sub-microscopic sulfide inclusions.The outer massive zones have a rather homogenous composition,with consistently lower abundances of base metals and Au(mean 1.28 ppm).The early arsenopyrite(Apy I)forms fine-grained euhedral crystals enriched in Au(mean 17.7 ppm)and many other trace elements(i.e.,Ni,Co,Se,Ag,Sb,Te,Hg,and Bi).On the other hand,ApyⅡoccurs as coarsegrained subhedral crystals with lower and less variable concentrations of Au(mean 4 ppm).Elevated concentrations of Au(max.327 ppm)and other trace elements are measured in fragmented and aggregated pyrite and arsenopyrite grains,whereas the undeformed intact zones of the same grains are poor in all trace elements.The occurrence of gold/electrum as secondary inclusions in deformed pyrite and arsenopyrite crystals indicates that gold introduction was relatively late in the paragenesis.The LAICP-MS results are consistent with gold redistribution by the N-S though-going faults/dikes overprinted the earlier NNW-SSE quartz veins in the southeastern part of the intrusion,where the underground mining is concentrated.Formation of the Um Rus intrusion and gold-bearing quartz veins can be related to the evolution of the Wadi Mubarak shear belt,where the granitic intrusion formed during or just subsequent to D2 and provided dilatation spaces for gold-quartz vein deposition when deformed by D3 structures.     

Seasonal dynamics influencing coastal primary production and phytoplankton communities along the southern Myanmar coast

Myanmar is tenth among the world’s fish-producing countries and third in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). To understand the mechanisms underlying the high production, oceanographic and phytoplankton surveys, including primary productivity measurements based on pulse amplitude modulation fluorometry, were conducted near an active fishing ground near Myeik City. Three surveys, one in each of the representative seasons and covering the characteristic coastal environments, showed well-defined seasonality in primary production and phytoplankton occurrence. End of the dry season was the most productive, with productivity of 2.59 ± 1.56 g C m^?2 day^?1 and high concentration of chlorophyll a (3.14 ± 2.64 µg L^?1). In this season, the phytoplankton population was dominated by high densities of the diatoms Bellerochea horologicalis and Chaetoceros curvisetus, whereas primary productivity was low at the onset of the dry season, 1.36 ± 0.77 g C m^?2 day^?1. However, this low primary production might be compensated by activation of microbial food chains originating from high dissolved organic carbon. The rainy season exhibited the lowest production, 6.6% of the end of the dry season, due to the extensive discharge of turbid water from the rivers which lowered euphotic layer depth and resulted in an unusually high diffuse attenuation coefficient of 2.30 ± 1.03 m^?1. This incident of turbid water may be related to soil erosion from deforestation and mangrove deterioration. This research reveals the seasonal trend in Myanmar’s coastal productivity and its relationship to the tropical monsoon climate as well as emphasizing the importance of tropical coastal environments to the sustainability of the fisheries.     

Biostratigraphy and seismic data analysis to detect the sequence stratigraphic depositional environment of the Miocene succession: Gulf of Suez (Egypt)

This work comprises a study of the sequence stratigraphy, seismic-facies analysis, biostratigraphy and depositional environments of the northern part of the Gulf of Suez, Egypt, using a set of 24 3D seismic profiles, composite logs and sonic logs from ten wells. The syn-rift formations in the studied ten wells are described lithologically and interpreted based on investigating two seismic profiles. Biostratigraphically, the Miocene fossils are identified to correlate the five planktonic foraminiferal biozones in the examined boreholes (RB-A1, RB-B1, RB-B3, EE85-2 and RB-C1). The sequence stratigraphic analysis suggests that the Miocene succession can be subdivided into two major third order depositional sequences (S1 and S2) separated by the three major sequence boundaries (DSB1, DSB2 and DSB3).     

Impact of rock-water interactions and recharge on water resources quality of the Agadir-Essaouira basin,southwestern Morocco

The Agadir-Essaouira area in the occidental High Atlas Mountains of Morocco is characterized by a semi-arid climate. The scarcity and quality of water resources, exacerbated by long drought periods, constitute a major problem for a sustainable development of this region. Groundwater resources of carbonate units within Jurassic and Cretaceous aquifers are requested for drinking and irrigation purposes. In this study, we collected 84 samples from wells, boreholes, springs, and rivers. Hydrochemical and isotopic data were used to examine the mineralization and origin of water, which control groundwater quality. The chemical composition of water seems to be controlled by water-rock interactions, such as dissolution of carbonates (calcite and dolomite), weathering of gypsum, as well as ion exchange processes, which explain the observed variability. Stable isotopes results show that groundwater from the mainly marly Cretaceous aquifer are submitted to an evaporation effect, while samples from the chiefly calcareous Jurassic aquifer indicate a meteoric origin, due to a rapid infiltration of recharge runoff through the karstic outcrops. The low values of δ¹⁸O and δ²H suggest a local recharge from areas with elevations ranging from 400 to 1200 m for the Cretaceous aquifer and from 800 to 1500 m for the Jurassic units.     

Nature of serpentinization and carbonation of ophiolitic peridotites (Eastern Desert,Egypt): constrains from stable isotopes and whole-rock geochemistry

Serpentinites are widespread in the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS) of the Eastern Desert of Egypt and usually enclose a tremendous carbonate alteration. Combined investigation of the stable isotope compositions of both O-H in serpentines and O-C in the whole-rock and the chemistry of the fluid-mobile elements (FMEs) in whole-rock serpentinites from Wadi (W.) Alam, Gabal (G.) El-Maiyit, and W. Atalla (Eastern Desert of Egypt) allowed to better understand the subsequent fluid sources of serpentinization and carbonation, as well as impact of these processes on the geochemistry of protolith ultramafic rocks. δ ¹⁸O values of W. Alam and W. Atalla serpentine minerals are close to the unaltered mantle and propose a lower temperature serpentinization if compared with those of G. El-Maiyit rocks. Moreover, δD values of W. Alam and W. Atalla serpentines (? 94 to ? 65‰) correspond to an igneous source that might be hydrothermal solutions mixed with the seawater in the mid-ocean ridge-arc transition setting. On the other hand, G. El-Maiyit serpentine is more depleted in ¹⁸O (with lower δ ¹⁸O values = 4.08–4.85‰), and its δD values (? 73 to 56 ‰) are most probably caused by an interaction with metamorphic fluids, acquired during on-land emplacement of oceanic peridotites or during burial in fore-arc setting. In addition, the oceanic oxygen isotope composition of most studied ophiolitic serpentinites points to the preservation of the pre-obduction δ ¹⁸O signatures and thus local-scale fluid flow at low water/rock ratios. Serpentinization fluids were CO₂-poor and the carbonation of the serpentinites resulted from infiltration of externally derived fluids. δ ¹⁸O_VSMOW values of carbonates in the studied serpentinites vary between heavier oxygen isotope composition in G. El-Maiyit samples (av. = 25.32‰) to lighter composition in W. Alam samples (av. = 19.43‰). However, δ ¹³C values of all serpentinites point mantle source of carbon. This source might have been evolved in mid-ocean ridge (W. Atalla) and subduction zone (W. Alam and G. El-Maiyit) settings. The studied serpentinites are usually enriched in FMEs, particularly Pb, Sr, Cs, and U. These enrichments were most probably the result of serpentinization and/or carbonation.