Spatially distributed rainfall information and its potential for regional landslide early warning systems

Hydrological extreme events pose an imminent risk to society and economics. In this paper, various aspects of hydrological hazards in Russia are analysed at different scales of risk assessment. It is shown that the number of hydrological and meteorological hazards in Russia has been growing every year. The frequency of economic losses associated with extreme low flow in this century has increased by factor five compared to the last decade of the previous century. With regard to floods, an interesting spatial patter can be observed. On the one hand, the number of floods in the Asian part of the country has increased, whereas on the other hand, the number and intensity of floods in estuarine areas in the European part of Russia have significantly reduced since the middle of the twentieth century, especially in the 2000s. This decrease can be attributed to runoff flooding in the mouths of regulated rivers, with an effective system of flood and ice jam protection. The analysis shows that there is an 8–12-year periodicity in the number of flood occurrences and that flood surges have intensified over the last 110 years, especially on the European territory of Russia. An integrated index that accounts for flood hazards and socio-economic vulnerability was calculated for each region of Russia. A classification of flood risk was also developed, taking into account more than 20 hydrological and social–economic characteristics. Based on these characteristics, hazard and vulnerability maps for entire Russia were generated which can be used for water management and the development of future water resources plans.     

Modeling of coal bed methane (CBM) production and CO2 sequestration in coal seams

A mathematical model was developed to predict the coal bed methane (CBM) production and carbon dioxide (CO₂) sequestration in a coal seam accounting for the coal seam properties. The model predictions showed that, for a CBM production and dewatering process, the pressure could be reduced from 15.17 MPa to 1.56 MPa and the gas saturation increased up to 50% in 30 years for a 5.4 × 10⁵ m² of coal formation. For the CO₂ sequestration process, the model prediction showed that the CO₂ injection rate was first reduced and then slightly recovered over 3 to 13 years of injection, which was also evidenced by the actual in seam data. The model predictions indicated that the sweeping of the water in front of the CO₂ flood in the cleat porosity could be important on the loss of injectivity. Further model predictions suggested that the injection rate of CO₂ could be about 11 × 10³ m³ per day; the injected CO₂ would reach the production well, which was separated from the injection well by 826 m, in about 30 years. During this period, about 160 × 10⁶ m³ of CO₂ could be stored within a 21.4 × 10⁵ m² of coal seam with a thickness of 3 m.     

Geodetic deformation monitoring of Ataturk Dam in Turkey

Dams are among the most important engineering structures used for water supply, flood control, agricultural uses, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred as a result of erosion, water load, hydraulic gradients, and water saturation. This research provides information about the deformation monitoring techniques. A case study was conducted on Ataturk Dam, the largest dam of Turkey constructed on F?rat River, to determine the magnitude and the direction of radial deformations that took place between 2006 and 2010. At the end of analyses, decreasing radial movement velocity was determined generally. Monthly average radial velocity of the last period which consists 6 months is 2.2 mm. As a result of the study, no significant correlation was determined between radial movements on embankment and reservoir water level.     

Attenuation modeling of recent earthquakes in Turkey

This paper deals with the derivation of a consistent set of empiricalattenuation relationships for predicting free-field horizontal components ofpeak ground acceleration (PGA) and 5 percent damped pseudoacceleration response spectra (PSA) from 47 strong ground motion recordsrecorded in Turkey. The relationships for Turkey were derived in similarform to those previously developed by Boore et al. (1997) for shallowearthquakes in western North America. The used database was compiledfor earthquakes in Turkey with moment magnitudes (M_w) = 5 thatoccurred between 1976–1999, and consisted of horizontal peak groundacceleration and 5 percent damped response spectra of accelerogramsrecorded on three different site conditions classified as rock, soil and softsoil. The empirical equations for predicting strong ground motion weretypically fit to the strong motion data set by applying nonlinear regressionanalysis according to both random horizontal components and maximumhorizontal components. Comparisons of the results show that groundmotion relations for earthquakes in one region cannot be simply modifiedfor use in engineering analyses in another region. Our results, patternedafter the Boore et al. expressions and dominated by the Kocaeli andDüzce events in 1999, appear to underestimate predictions based ontheir curves for up to about 15 km. For larger distances the reverse holds.     

Investigation of Crustal Thickness in Eastern Anatolia Using Gravity,Magnetic and Topographic Data

The tectonic regime of Eastern Anatolia is determined by the Arabia-Eurasia continent-continent collision. Several dynamic models have been proposed to characterize the collision zone and its geodynamic structure. In this study, change in crustal thickness has been investigated using gravity, magnetic and topographic data of the region. In the first stage, two-dimensional low-pass filter and upward analytical continuation techniques were applied to the Bouguer gravity data of the region to investigate the behavior of the regional gravity anomalies. Next the moving window power spectrum method was used, and changes in the probable structural depths from 38 to 52 km were determined. The changes in crustal thickness where free air gravity and magnetic data have inversely correlated and the type of the anomaly resources were investigated applying the Euler deconvolution method to Bouguer gravity data. The obtained depth values are consistent with the results obtained using the power spectrum method. It was determined that the types of anomaly resources are different in the west and east of the 40° E longitude. Finally, using the obtained findings from this study and seismic velocity models proposed for this region by previous studies, a probable two-dimensional crust model was constituted.     

Response of pendulums to complex input ground motion

Dynamic response of most seismological instruments and many engineering structures to ground shaking can be represented via response of a pendulum (single-degree-of-freedom oscillator). In most studies, pendulum response is simplified by considering the input from uni-axial translational motion alone. Complete ground motion however, includes not only translational components but also rotations (tilt and torsion). In this paper, complete equations of motion for three following types of pendulum are described: (i) conventional (mass-on-rod), (ii) mass-on-spring type, and (iii) inverted (astatic), then their response sensitivities to each component of complex ground motion are examined. The results of this study show that a horizontal pendulum similar to an accelerometer used in strong motion measurements is practically sensitive to translational motion and tilt only, while inverted pendulum commonly utilized to idealize multi-degree-of-freedom systems is sensitive not only to translational components, but also to angular accelerations and tilt. For better understanding of the inverted pendulum's dynamic behavior under complex ground excitation, relative contribution of each component of motion on response variants is carefully isolated. The systematically applied loading protocols indicate that vertical component of motion may create time-dependent variations on pendulum's oscillation period; yet most dramatic impact on response is produced by the tilting (rocking) component.     

Geotechnical mapping for alluvial fan deposits controlled by active faults: a case study in the Erzurum,NE Turkey

Erzurum, the biggest city of Eastern Anatolia Region in the Turkey, is located in Karasu Plain. Karasu Plain, located on the central segment of the Erzurum Fault Zone, is an intermountain sedimentary basin with a Miocene-Quaternary volcanic basement, andesitic-basaltic lava flows and fissure eruptions of basaltic lava. It was filled in the early Quaternary by lacustrine fan-delta deposits. The basin is characterized by NNE-SSW trending sinistral wrench faults on its eastern margin and ENE-WSW trending reverse faults on its southern margin. Both systems of active faults intersect very near to Erzurum, which is considered to be the most likely site for the epicenter of a probable future large earthquake. Historical records of destructive earthquakes, morphotectonic features formed by paleo-seismic events and instrument seismic data of region indicate to a very high regional seismicity. The residential areas of Erzurum are located on thick alluvial fan deposits forming under the control of faults on the central segment of the Erzurum Fault Zone, which is one of the most active fault belts of the East Anatolian Region. Over time, the housing estates of city such as Yenisehir and Yildizkent have been expanded toward to the west and southwest part of Erzurum as a consequence of rapid and massive construction during the last 30 years. Geotechnical investigation has therefore been undertaken the residential areas of city in order to characterize geotechnical properties over the varied lithologies examine the potential for geotechnical mapping and assess the foundation conditions of the present and future settlement areas. The geological field observations and operations have been performed to make the soil sampling and characterize the lateral and vertical changes in thickness of the alluvial deposits in trenches, excavations and deep holes with 6–12 m sections. The soil samples have been subjected to a series of tests under laboratory conditions to obtain physical and mechanical properties. Furthermore, the standard penetration tests have been applied to the soils under field conditions. The geological field observations, geotechnical data and distribution of bearing capacity have been considered for the geotechnical mapping. Based on the geotechnical map, there are five geotechnical zones distinguished in the study area.     

Effects of the use of the surface spectrum of a specific region on seismic performances of R/C structures

Category 5 tropical cyclone Pam hit Vanuatu in March 2015, affecting thousands of people. Three months after the event, this study compared the responses from both external aid agencies and the disaster-affected communities to identify convergences, duplications and gaps. The research relies on 13 interviews with aid agencies and eight focus group discussions with participatory activities at local community level. While aid agencies actively responded during and after Pam, local people too responded to the event with strategies based on livelihoods diversification, food security techniques, traditional knowledge and cooperation intra- and inter-communities. The study emphasizes the need for an integrative approach where disaster responses from the top-down integrate that from the bottom-up. Aid agencies should build on the livelihood mechanisms developed at local level so responses and recovery can be more effective, socioculturally acceptable and may lead to sustainable outcomes of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation.     

Lithospheric structure of the continent–continent collision zone: eastern Turkey

We infer the lithospheric structure in eastern Turkey using teleseismic and regional events recorded by 29 broad-band stations from the Eastern Turkey Seismic Experiment (ETSE). We combine the surface wave group velocities (Rayleigh and Love) with telesesimic receiver functions to jointly invert for the S -wave velocity structure, Moho depth and mantle-lid (lithospheric mantle) thickness. We also estimated the transverse anisotropy due to Love and Rayleigh velocity discrepancies. We found anomalously low shear wave velocities underneath the Anatolian Plateau. Average crustal thickness is 36 km in the Arabian Plate, 44 km in Anatolian Block and 48 km in the Anatolian Plateau. We observe very low shear wave velocities at the crustal portion (30–38 km) of the northeastern part of the Anatolian Plateau. The lithospheric mantle thickness is either not thick enough to resolve it or it is completely removed underneath the Anatolian Plateau. The shear velocities and anisotropy down to 100 km depth suggest that the average lithosphere–asthenosphere boundary in the Arabian Plate is about 90 and 70 km in Anatolian block. Adding the surface waves to the receiver functions is necessary to constrain the trade-off between velocity and the thickness. We find slower velocities than with the receiver function data alone. The study reveals three different lithospheric structures in eastern Turkey: the Anatolian plateau (east of Karliova Triple Junction), the Anatolian block and the northernmost portion of the Arabian plate. The boundary of lithospheric structure differences coincides with the major tectonic boundaries.