Transport of salt and freshwater in the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

Transport of salt in the Irminger Current, the northern branch of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre coupling the eastern and western subpolar North Atlantic, plays an important role for climate variability across a wide range of time scales. High-resolution ocean modeling and observations indicate that salinities in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic decrease with enhanced circulation of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG). This has led to the perception that a stronger SPG also transports less salt westward. In this study, we analyze a regional ocean model and a comprehensive global coupled climate model, and show that a stronger SPG transports more salt in the Irminger Current irrespective of lower salinities in its source region. The additional salt converges in the Labrador Sea and the Irminger Basin by eddy transports, increases surface salinity in the western SPG, and favors more intense deep convection. This is part of a positive feedback mechanism with potentially large implications for climate variability and predictability.     

Glacier outburst floods reconstructed from lake sediments and their implications for Holocene variations of the plateau glacier Folgefonna in western Norway

A sudden release of large volumes of water during a glacier outburst flood (GLOF) is a major hazard worldwide. Here, we identify the sedimentary signature of glacial and non‐glacial processes, including GLOFs, based on lacustrine sediments from the distal glacier‐fed Lake Buarvatnet in western Norway. Historically documented GLOFs in 2002 CE and during the 1980s CE are identified in the ²¹⁰Pb‐ and ¹⁴C‐dated sediments. These events have the same sedimentary signature as 12 earlier events throughout the Holocene interpreted to represent previous GLOFs in the catchment. The GLOFs are interpreted to have occurred during periods when the glacier extent was similar to the modern positions, and the events are thus used to pinpoint past positions of the glacier terminus and, hence, the equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs). The results indicate that the glacier Svartenutbreen, located at the eastern part of Folgefonna, had a similar size in 2002 CE as c. 8200–8300 cal. a BP, corresponding to the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region. The regrowth of Sørfonna after the Holocene Thermal Optimum occurred at c. 6900 cal. a BP and Svartenutbreen was at modern size and extent in the periods c. 6400, c. 5450, c. 4850, c. 3850, c. 3550 and c. 1650 cal. a BP. Since 1650 cal. a BP, we infer that the glacier was larger than the 2002 CE glacier extent until 1910 CE when a GLOF occurred. Svartenutbreen has been retreating since 1910 CE, which led to the ice damming of the two historical GLOFs in the 1980s and 2002 CE separated by a glacier advance in the 1990s CE. The findings are discussed and compared to other regional glacier reconstructions in Norway, and emphasize the value of identifying and utilizing GLOFs as an indicator of past ELA variability.     

The shape of spiral arms

The response by a gaseous disc to perturbations is investigated. Spectral analysis of the resulting pattern indicates that information about the nature of the perturber is maintained only if the perturbation is strong.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

温冰川上的冰震——以奥地利Hohe Tauern地区Schlatenkees冰川为例

在奥地利Hohe Tauern的Schlatenkees冰川上布置了两组地震仪测量网,用电动力垂直地震仪记录到了约1200次冰震。找出了地震学参数彼此之间的几种关系。并根据优势频率,将冰震分成了4组。记录到的震动事件的震深为25—130m,震源半径为12—67m,地震矩为4.23×10~5—6.52×10~7Nm,地震能为9.1—1.34x10~5J,应力降为0.16—32.04hPa。     

Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification

Satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition provide a wealth of data on a global scale. These complement results from atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and can be combined using data assimilation. We present two assimilation schemes coupled to the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), a three-dimensional, off-line CTM with full photochemistry: a variant on the ensemble Kalman filter and the three-dimensional variational scheme. The aim of this paper is to describe the two schemes and present an initial assessment of their impacts on model skill. Retrievals of multiple atmospheric trace gases are assimilated, namely: NO₂ tropospheric column densities, CH₄ total column densities, and partial column concentrations of O₃, CO and CH₄; these data are retrieved from four satellite sensors. Data for each species are assimilated independently of one another, and other species are only adjusted indirectly via the model’s chemistry and dynamics. Assimilation results are compared with measurements from surface monitoring stations and other satellite retrievals, and preliminary validation results are presented.Reference simulations (without assimilation) grossly underestimate surface CO concentrations, and both assimilation schemes eliminate this large and systematic model bias. The assimilation improves the spatial correlation of modelled CO with surface observations, and improves the spatial correlation between forecasts and retrievals for CO, NO₂ and O₃. Results for CH₄ show a loss of skill due to a mismatch in model bias between two assimilated CH₄ data-sets. Finally, we discuss differences in methodology and results between this paper and a recent study on multi-species chemical data assimilation. Joint optimisation of initial conditions and emission rates offers a promising direction for improving modelled boundary-layer concentrations.     

A combined study of macroseismic data and focal mechanisms applied to the West-Bohemian earthquake,Czechoslovakia

The main shock of the West-Bohemian earthquake swarm, Czechoslovakia, (magnitudem=4.5, depthh=10 km) exhibits an irregular areal distribution of macroseismic intensities 6° to 7° MSK-64. Four lobes of the 6° isoseismal are found and the maximum observed intensity is located at a distance of 8 km from the instrumentally determined epicentre. This distribution can be explained by the energy flux of the directS wave generated by a circular source, the hypocentral location and focal mechanism of which are taken from independent instrumental studies. The theoretical intensity, which is assumed to be logarithmically proportional to the integrated squared ground-motion velocity (i.e.,I=const+log v ² (t)dt), fits the observed intensity with an overall root-mean-square error less than 0.5°. It is important that the present intensity data can also be equally well explained by the isotropic source. The fit was attained by means of a horizontally layered model though large fault zones and an extended sedimentary basin suggest a significant lateral heterogeneity of the epicentral region. The results encourage a broader application of the simple modelling technique used.     

The future of the western Baltic Sea: two possible scenarios

Globally coupled climate models are generally capable of reproducing the observed trends in the globally averaged atmospheric temperature. However, the global models do not perform as well on regional scales. Here, we present results from four 100-year, high-resolution ocean model experiments (resolution less than 1 km) for the western Baltic Sea. The forcing is taken from a regional atmospheric model and a regional ocean model, imbedded into two global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, A1B and B1, for the period of 2000 to 2100 with each two realisations. Two control runs from 1960 to 2000 are used for validation. For both scenarios, the results show a warming with an increase of 0.5–2.5 K at the sea surface and 0.7–2.8 K below 40 m. The simulations further indicate a decrease in salinity by 1.5–2 practical salinity units. The increase in water temperature leads to a prolongation of heat waves based on present-day thresholds. This amounts to a doubling or even tripling of the heat wave duration. The simulations show a decrease in inflow events (barotropic/baroclinic), which will affect the deepwater generation and ventilation of the central Baltic Sea. The high spatial resolution allows us to diagnose the inflow events and the mechanism that will cause future changes. The reduction in barotropic inflow events correlates well with the increase in westerly winds. The changes in the baroclinic inflows can be consistently explained by the reduction of calm wind periods and thus a weakening of the necessary stratification in the western Baltic Sea and the Danish Straits.     

Rocket-borne and groundbased observations of coincident field-aligned currents,electron beams,and plasma density enhancements in the afternoon auroral oval

Results are reported from a rocket experiment conducted at Søndre Strømfjord, Greenland, on 22 August 1976, at 16.00 M.L.T. A series of plasma, particles, and fields and wave experiments were carried on board the payload, and the venture was supported by data from the AE-C satellite and by groundbased ionosondes and magnetometers at the launch site and at Godhavn. Two regions of field-aligned electron precipitation, electron density and temperature enhancements, and field-aligned upflowing current sheets were intercepted by the rocket. The density enhancements were also observed by groundbased ionosondes. Significant discrepancies were found between the currents carried by the streaming electrons in the 0.15–10 keV range and the upflowing currents seen by the on board magnetometer, suggesting that the upflowing current could not be the primary driver of the electron acceleration mechanism. The E-region was unstable to the combined Gradient-Drift and Farley-Buneman instability, and plasma turbulence was observed in situ, but the absolute density fluctuations were too small to return detectable HF-radar power to the ground.     

The fall and rise of metropolitan government in Copenhagen

In this paper it is argued that the re-establishment of a metropolitan government in the Greater Copenhagen Area in 2000 (Greater Copenhagen Authority) is not to be seen as a return to the kind of regional, coordinative authority (Greater Copenhagen Council) that was abolished in the Thatcherite climate of the 1980s. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s new forms of urban governance, entrepreneurialism and a higher national priority to the capital region were introduced, which changed the conditions under which the new metropolitan government is operating. This `contextualization' of the analysis of the two generations of metropolitan government points to the fact that typologies of metropolitan government, such as the one put forward by Sharpe (1995), often lacks analytical cogency. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.