Recent Results from Studies of Electric Discharges in the Mesosphere

The paper reviews recent advances in studies of electric discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above thunderstorms, and their effects on the atmosphere. The primary focus is on the sprite discharge occurring in the mesosphere, which is the most commonly observed high altitude discharge by imaging cameras from the ground, but effects on the upper atmosphere by electromagnetic radiation from lightning are also considered. During the past few years, co-ordinated observations over Southern Europe have been made of a wide range of parameters related to sprites and their causative thunderstorms. Observations have been complemented by the modelling of processes ranging from the electric discharge to perturbations of trace gas concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Observations point to significant energy deposition by sprites in the neutral atmosphere as observed by infrasound waves detected at up to 1000 km distance, whereas elves and lightning have been shown significantly to affect ionization and heating of the lower ionosphere/mesosphere. Studies of the thunderstorm systems powering high altitude discharges show the important role of intracloud (IC) lightning in sprite generation as seen by the first simultaneous observations of IC activity, sprite activity and broadband, electromagnetic radiation in the VLF range. Simulations of sprite ignition suggest that, under certain conditions, energetic electrons in the runaway regime are generated in streamer discharges. Such electrons may be the source of X- and Gamma-rays observed in lightning, thunderstorms and the so-called Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) observed from space over thunderstorm regions. Model estimates of sprite perturbations to the global atmospheric electric circuit, trace gas concentrations and atmospheric dynamics suggest significant local perturbations, and possibly significant meso-scale effects, but negligible global effects.     

Volatile emissions and gas geochemistry of Hot Spring Basin,Yellowstone National Park,USA

We characterize and quantify volatile emissions at Hot Spring Basin (HSB), a large acid-sulfate region that lies just outside the northeastern edge of the 640 ka Yellowstone Caldera. Relative to other thermal areas in Yellowstone, HSB gases are rich in He and H₂, and mildly enriched in CH₄ and H₂S. Gas compositions are consistent with boiling directly off a deep geothermal liquid at depth as it migrates toward the surface. This fluid, and the gases evolved from it, carries geochemical signatures of magmatic volatiles and water–rock reactions with multiple crustal sources, including limestones or quartz-rich sediments with low K/U (or ^40?Ar/^4?He). Variations in gas chemistry across the region reflect reservoir heterogeneity and variable degrees of boiling. Gas-geothermometer temperatures approach 300 °C and suggest that the reservoir feeding HSB is one of the hottest at Yellowstone. Diffuse CO₂ flux in the western basin of HSB, as measured by accumulation-chamber methods, is similar in magnitude to other acid-sulfate areas of Yellowstone and is well correlated to shallow soil temperatures. The extrapolation of diffuse CO₂ fluxes across all the thermal/altered area suggests that 410 ± 140 t d^− 1 CO₂ are emitted at HSB (vent emissions not included). Diffuse fluxes of H₂S were measured in Yellowstone for the first time and likely exceed 2.4 t d^− 1 at HSB. Comparing estimates of the total estimated diffuse H₂S emission to the amount of sulfur as SO₄²⁻ in streams indicates ~ 50% of the original H₂S in the gas emission is lost into shallow groundwater, precipitated as native sulfur, or vented through fumaroles. We estimate the heat output of HSB as ~ 140–370 MW using CO₂ as a tracer for steam condensate, but not including the contribution from fumaroles and hydrothermal vents. Overall, the diffuse heat and volatile fluxes of HSB are as great as some active volcanoes, but they are a small fraction (1–3% for CO₂, 2–8% for heat) of that estimated for the entire Yellowstone system.     

Hydraulics of sediment-laden sheetflow and the influence of simulated rainfall

Laminar sheetflows, transporting sediment at their capacity rates, both with and without rainfall disturbance, were investigated. Values of flow depth and relative submergence were very small. In the flows without rainfall, measured velocities exceeded the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water laminar model by an average of 12 per cent. Reduced flow resistance due to high sediment concentrations may explain this result. Velocities in the rainfall-disturbed flows were not significantly different from the predictions of the smooth-surface, clear-water model, and the velocity reduction due to rainfall was about 12 per cent. Although the uniformity of rainfall intensity under the single-nozzle rainfall simulator is high, variation of momentum and kinetic energy fluxes along the 1-5 m long flume was significant. The rainfall angle of incidence was highly correlated with deviations from expected flow velocities in the upper and lower sections of the flume.     

Strain partitioning and preservation of Ar/Ar ages during Variscan exhumation of a subducted crust (Malpica–Tui complex, NW Spain)

The Malpica–Tui complex (NW Iberian Massif) consists of a Lower Continental Unit of variably deformed and recrystallized granitoids, metasediments and sparse metabasites, overridden by an upper unit with rocks of oceanic affinities. Metamorphic minerals dated by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method record a coherent temporal history of progressive deformation during Variscan metamorphism and exhumation. The earliest stages of deformation (D1) under high-pressure conditions are recorded in phengitic white micas from eclogite-facies rocks at 365–370 Ma. Following this eclogite-facies peak-metamorphism, the continental slab became attached to the overriding plate at deep-crustal levels at ca. 340–350 Ma (D2). Exhumation was accompanied by pervasive deformation (D3) within the continental slab at ca. 330 Ma and major deformation (D4) in the underlying para-autochthon at 315–325 Ma. Final tectonothermal evolution included late folding, localized shearing and granitic intrusions at 280–310 Ma.

Dating of high-pressure rocks by the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar method yields ages that are synchronous with published Rb–Sr and Sm–Nd ages obtained for both the Malpica–Tui complex and its correlative, the Champtoceaux complex in the French Armorican Massif. The results indicate that phengitic white mica retains its radiogenic argon despite been subjected to relatively high temperatures (500–600 °C) for a period of 20–30 My corresponding to the time-span from the static, eclogite-facies M1 peak-metamorphism through D1-M2 eclogite-facies deformation to amphibolite-facies D2-M3. Our study provides additional evidence that under certain geological conditions (i.e., strain partitioning, fluid deficiency) argon isotope mobility is limited at high temperatures, and that ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar geochronology can be a reliable method for dating high pressure metamorphism.     

Modelling Short‐Scale Variability and Uncertainty During Mineral Resource Estimation Using a Novel Fuzzy Estimation Technique

For mineral resource assessment, techniques based on fuzzy logic are attractive because they are capable of incorporating uncertainty associated with measured variables and can also quantify the uncertainty of the estimated grade, tonnage etc. The fuzzy grade estimation model is independent of the distribution of data, avoiding assumptions and constraints made during advanced geostatistical simulation, e.g., the turning bands method. Initially, fuzzy modelling classifies the data using all the component variables in the data set. We adopt a novel approach by taking into account the spatial irregularity of mineralisation patterns using the Gustafson–Kessel classification algorithm. The uncertainty at the point of estimation was derived through antecedent memberships in the input space (i.e., spatial coordinates) and transformed onto the output space (i.e., grades) through consequent membership at the point of estimation. Rather than probabilistic confidence intervals, this uncertainty was expressed in terms of fuzzy memberships, which indicated the occurrence of mixtures of different mineralogical phases at the point of estimation. Data from different sources (other than grades) could also be utilised during estimation. Application of the proposed technique on a real data set gave results that were comparable to those obtained from a turning bands simulation.     

Investigation of superstructures in mullite by high resolution electron microscopy and electron diffraction

Superstructures in synthetic mullite, Al_4+2x Si_2?2x O_10?x , prepared using the zone melting technique, are studied by high resolution electron microscopy (HREM), electron diffraction, and in situ energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. For x=0.40 composition HREM images indicate only short-range order. Near x=0.5 composition mullite has an antiphase domain structure with antiphase boundaries (APB's) oriented parallel to (100). For higher Al-content the APB's run in non-rational orientations which are slightly inclined against the {601}-planes. We propose models for the superstructures in which oxygen vacancies are arranged in channels parallel to the crystal b-axis. The models are supported by a one-to-one match between observed and computer-simulated images. An Al-rich limit of x=2/3 for mullite is deduced on the basis of stereochemical considerations. Different ordering schemes for the tetrahedral cations are believed to result in the orientation change of the APB's near x=0.5 composition.     

Isoseismals of the strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976

Summary Isoseismal maps of the three strongest Friuli aftershocks of September 1976 were compiled using the contributions from European countries within the shaken area. The characteristic features of the macroseismic fields are discussed.     

The annual cycle and the predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Summary Using large-scale circulation statistics from the Pacific Ocean basin, predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on interannual time scales is found both to be limited in extent and to possess a strong annual cycle. Irrespective of when lagged correlations are commenced, correlations decrease rapidly through the boreal spring, indicating an inherent predictability limitation for large scale coupled oceanicatmospheric processes such as El Niño. Long term prediction experiments using numerical coupled-models show that the models are excellent facsimiles of the real system. They, too, encounter the predictability barrier and exhibit a substantial decrease in observation-prediction correlation across the boreal spring. Thus, a predictive system based solely on the interactive physics of the Pacific Basin appears limited to a maximum of less than one year and a minimum of only one or two months.Two hypotheses are made to explain the existence of the predictability barrier. First, it is argued that the tropical coupled system is at its frailest state during the boreal spring and that the signal-to-noise ratio is weakest. In such a system, maximum random error growth may occur as the atmosphere and the ocean become temporally detached and wander onto different climate trajectories. A series of 144 preliminary Monte Carlo experiments were conducted with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to test the hypothesis. Irrespective of when the experiments were commenced, error growth was maximized at the same time of the year. The second hypothesis suggests that the near-equatorial circulation is perturbed at the time of its weakest state by external influences such as the monsoon and that the climate wanderings are nudged deterministically. There is observational and theoretical evidence to support the hypothesis. Observations suggest that anomalous monsoons impart basin-wide coherent alterations of the wind stress field in the Pacific Ocean. Experiments with a coupled ocean-atmosphere model show that the period of an ENSO event is altered substantially by an anomalous monsoon. Given that there appear to be precursors to anomalous monsoons, it is suggested that there may be ways to avoid the predictability barrier and thus extend prediction of the entire system.Finally, noting that the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, they are combined to form a unified theory. As the asymmetric monsoonal and the symmetric near-equatorial heating are in approximate quadrature, it is argued that the monsoons influence the Walker circulation during the boreal spring. However, during the boreal fall and early winter the near-equatorial heating variability dominates the winter monsoon.With 18 Figures     

Comparison of atmospheric aerosol backscattering and air mass back trajectories

Summary Atmospheric backscattering from aerosol particulates has been measured over the Atlantic at 10.6 μm wavelength with an airborne, coherent heterodyne, lidar, and corresponding air mass back trajectories have been calculated. These back trajectories (usually extended up to 10 days prior to the backscatter measurement) have shown very diverse origins for the air parcels at different altitudes. In many cases it has been possible to attribute the observed levels of scattering to these origins over oceanic, arctic, continental, industrial etc. regions. This is illustrated by 6 flight records: out of Ascension Island in the South Atlantic; over the Azores in the mid North Atlantic; over the UK and the North Sea; and in the Arctic along 71° North. In each of these regions the profiles of backscatter versus altitude show highly variable features; remarkably different origins for air masses at different altitudes are evident from the corresponding back trajectory analyses. It is thus possible for the first time to present probable explanations for the different levels of scattering observed at different altitudes. Received July 14, 2000 Revised May 14, 2001