The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of probabilistic-based frequency ratio model in groundwater potential mapping using remote sensing data and GIS

The main goal of this study is to investigate the application of the probabilistic-based frequency ratio (FR) model in groundwater potential mapping at Langat basin in Malaysia using geographical information system. So far, the approach of probabilistic frequency ratio model has not yet been used to delineate groundwater potential in Malaysia. Moreover, this study includes the analysis of the spatial relationships between groundwater yield and various hydrological conditioning factors such as elevation, slope, curvature, river, lineament, geology, soil, and land use for this region. Eight groundwater-related factors were collected and extracted from topographic data, geological data, satellite imagery, and published maps. About 68 groundwater data with high potential yield values of ≥11 m³/h were randomly selected using statistical software of SPSS. Then, the groundwater data were randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (48 borehole data) for training the model and the remaining 30 % (20 borehole data) was used for validation purpose. Finally, the frequency ratio coefficients of the hydrological factors were used to generate the groundwater potential map. The validation dataset which was not used during the FR modeling process was used to validate the groundwater potential map using the prediction rate method. The validation results showed that the area under the curve for frequency model is 84.78 %. As far as the performance of the FR approach is concerned, the results appeared to be quite satisfactory, i.e., the zones determined on the map being zones of relative groundwater potential. This information could be used by government agencies as well as private sectors as a guide for groundwater exploration and assessment in Malaysia.     

Active crustal shortening in NE Syria revealed by deformed terraces of the River Euphrates

The Africa–Arabia plate boundary comprises the Red Sea oceanic spreading centre and the left‐lateral Dead Sea Fault Zone (DSFZ); however, previous work has indicated kinematic inconsistency between its continental and oceanic parts. The Palmyra Fold Belt (PFB) splays ENE from the DSFZ in SW Syria and persists for ～400 km to the River Euphrates, but its significance within the regional pattern of active crustal deformation has hitherto been unclear. We report deformation of Euphrates terraces consistent with Quaternary right‐lateral transpression within the PFB, indicating anticlockwise rotation (estimated as 0.3° Ma^?1 about 36.0°N 39.8°E) of the block between the PFB and the northern DSFZ relative to the Arabian Plate interior. The northern DSFZ is shown to be kinematically consistent with the combination of Euler vectors for the PFB and the Red Sea spreading, resolving the inconsistency previously evident. The SW PFB causes a significant earthquake hazard, previously unrecognized, to the city of Damascus.     

Infinitesimal Orbits Around the Libration Points in the Elliptic Restricted Three Body Problem

The objective of the present work is to develope explicit analytical expressions for the small amplitude orbits of the infinitesimal mass about the equilibrium points in the elliptic restricted three body problem. To handle this dynamical problem, the Hamiltonian for the elliptic problem is formed with the true anomaly and then with the eccentric anomaly as independent variables. The origin is then transformed to a fixed point and the Hamiltonian is developed up to O(4) in the eccentricity, e, (which plays the role of the small parameter of the problem) of the primaries. The integration of the model problem under consideration is undertaken by means of a perturbation technique based on Lie series developments, which leads to the solution of the canonical equations of motion.     

A recent scenario of mass wasting and its impact on the transportation in Alborz Mountains, Iran using geo-information technology

Mass movements or mass wasting is being considered as one of the severe forms of natural disasters. Iran is geographically located in the Alps–Himalaya seismicity belt. It has a high potential to mass wasting. This seismic phenomenon creates landslides and rock falls in the high mountains of Alborz and Zagros. These mass movements and various types of slides can be systematically assessed and mapped through traditional mapping frameworks using geo-information technologies. The geo-information-based technology offers the earth scientist to study and map various types of mass movement and stability of slopes. In this study, we used field data coupling with the tectonic-related factors to provide a solution for slope-related hazards. Firstly, various geological and geomorphological factors such as lineaments and faults, vegetation, lithology, slope, drainage, land use/land cover, seismicity and roads network were extracted and compiled using geo-information technology. This is because the factors mentioned above play important role in the instability of the region. Then, the study area was divided into four regions based on the rate of mass wasting and its degree of vulnerability. The results of this study showed that the erosion in Karaj formation is severe. Additionally, this research also reveals that the hydrothermal solutions caused by the erosional activities have influenced the glassy element of tuffs and subsequently changed into the clays. This change has caused the tuffs to be relatively unstable. Further, it is evident that the chemical and physical weathering has had a big impact on it whilst most of the mass wasting has occurred within the unstable tuffs of Karaj formation. Finally, the paper concluded that the recent construction of the new roads in the region has increased the potential danger for generating the mass wastes and thus makes the region more unstable.     

The strength of Malaysian maritime cluster: The development of maritime policy

A comprehensive maritime industry policy that can be adequately monitored to achieve a competitive advantage is important. The Malaysian maritime industry comprises multifaceted sectors that are governed by fragmented governmental agencies. In this research, we investigated the Malaysian maritime industry cluster comprising three main sectors: Shipping, Ship Industry, Ports and Terminals. The Strength Indicator Model has been developed to reveals the maritime industry cluster. We find that the Competitions, Locations, Connections, Government and Chances factors affect the capability of the Malaysian maritime industry cluster. The result of this study will give a framework for Regulatory bodies and the various stakeholders to support the Malaysia maritime industry progressing toward a more competitive and sustainable development of the industry with the aim to become the developed maritime nation.     

Seismic microzonation for Penang using geospatial contour mapping

Shear wave velocity (V _s) and the fundamental site period of the subsurface condition are the primary parameters that affect seismic soil amplification in particular sites. Within the topmost layer of the soil, which measures 30 m, the average shear wave velocity V _s30 is commonly used to build codes for site classification for the design of earthquake-resistant structures and to conduct microzonation studies. In this study, the development of a microzonation map for V _s30 distribution, National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program V _s30 site classification, and a fundamental site period for Penang are presented. The multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) test was conducted for more than 50 sites with available borehole data to develop the microzonation maps. The ten selected V _s profiles measured by MASW show a good correlation with the data obtained using empirical correlations in a previous study. The highest V _s values were identified at the northeastern and southeastern parts of Penang Island, corresponding to the shallow bedrock and the outcrop zone. Conversely, the lowest V _s values were found in the northwestern and southwestern parts of the Penang mainland owing to the thick layer of soft clay and silt deposits. The site period map shows the variation in site periods, with the highest value of 1.03 s at the western part of the Penang mainland and the lowest value of 0.02 s at the eastern part of the Penang Island. The microzonation maps developed in this study are vital to studies on seismic hazard and earthquake mitigation programs in Malaysia.     

Effects of mellowing sulfate-bearing clay soil stabilized with wastepaper sludge ash for road construction

The main objective of this research was to investigate the effect of mellowing on the swelling properties of stabilized Lower Oxford Clay (LOC), a sulfate-bearing clay soil that has caused concern in the past due to expansion upon stabilization. Two stabilizers were used, quicklime and a more sustainable stabilizer — wastepaper sludge ash (WSA), an industrial by-product used on its own and in combination with either quicklime (CaO) or ground granulated blastfurnace slag (GGBS). Quicklime was used on its own as a control. Compacted cylinders of LOC stabilized with the various stabilizers were made either mellowed (compacted 3 days after mixing with stabilizer) or unmellowed (compacted immediately after mixing with stabilizer). The linear expansion of the stabilized cylinders during moist curing and subsequent soaking was monitored for a total of 100 days. The results obtained showed that the linear expansion of unmellowed stabilized LOC was significantly reduced, and thus in terms of swelling potential, mellowing was not beneficial in the LOC system investigated. The results observed also suggest that there are technological, economic as well as environmental advantages of utilizing WSA and similar industrial by-products, in the stabilization of sulfate-bearing and other clay soils, as an alternative to the traditional stabilizers of lime and/or Portland Cement.     

Case study of reservoir triggered seismicity, Latian Dam, Tehran, Iran

Latian dam is located in the North East of Tehran in Elburz Mountain. It falls in the category of large dams according to the International Committee on Large Dams (ICOLD). It was constructed in 1967 for agricultural purposes, drinking water, and power generation. Producing triggered earthquakes may be a consequent result of dam construction. In this paper, the complete seismic statistics of the region from 1996 onwards has been studied to understand the seismic condition of Latain region. For this purpose, frequency of earthquakes within a radius of 30/60 km around the dam is studied considering its relationship with the reservoir volume variation. Using Gutenberg-Richter rule, parameter b of the region was determined within the same region. The results of this study show the existence of triggered seismicity around the reservoir of Latian dam. Considering the tectonic-geological condition of the region, the existence of triggered earthquakes may create landslides in the reservoir and around it.     

Comparison of wave equation migration in logpolar and elliptic coordinates

We extend Riemannian wavefield extrapolation to pre- and post-stack migration using 2D logpolar coordinate system in order to enhance imaging of subsurface structures with imaging of dipping reflectors and turning waves. The logpolar coordinate is a coordinate system adequate for propagating both the source and receiver wavefields. The logpolar extrapolation wavenumber introduces an isotropic slowness model stretch to the single square root operator that enables the use of Cartesian finite-difference extrapolators for propagating wavefields in logpolar meshes. Wavefield extrapolation in this coordinate does not require any ray tracing at all and it can be readily extended to high-order finite-difference schemes since it is an analytic extrapolation operator. Two migration examples illustrate the advantages of the logpolar coordinate for imaging complex geological structures. We compared results of post- and pre-stack depth migration in logpolar and elliptic coordinate systems and we found that steeply dipping events can be better imaged in logpolar coordinate than in elliptic coordinate.