Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.     

Influence of the zone of weakness on dip angle and shear heating of subducted slabs

We study the importance of the zones of weakness and the pattern of downgoing flow in steady-state models of subducting lithosphere, which interacts mechanically and thermally with the ambient mantle. The non-linear system of governing equations consists of (i) the momentum equation in stream function formulation and (ii) the steady-state heat transfer equation including conduction and advection of heat and dissipation. A finite element method has been applied to this system. We consider the viscosity to be a non-linear function of both the temperature and the stream function. In steady-state two-dimensional (2D) flow, the stream function isolines follow material trajectories. They are used to follow the top of the subducting slab, which because of its possible increase in water content, is assumed to have a lower viscosity. The zone of weakness has been thus obtained in the self-consistent fashion since the stream function as well as the temperature are the output from our modeling and no a priori assumptions about the shape of the bending lithosphere are taken into account. It was shown that several orders decrease of viscosity in the zone of weakness is required to obtain the dip angle of about 45°. If the decrease of viscosity is not sufficient enough, the subducted slab either sinks almost vertically or does not exhibit a plate-like behavior. We have also demonstrated that shear heating can unrealistically increase at the zone of weakness for fast subductions if decrease of viscosity is underestimated.     

Using Eigenpattern Analysis to Constrain Seasonal Signals in Southern California

— Earthquake fault systems are now thought to be an example of a complex nonlinear system (Bak, et al., 1987; Rundle and Klein, 1995). The spatial and temporal complexity of this system translates into a similar complexity in the surface expression of the underlying physics, including deformation and seismicity. Here we show that a new pattern dynamic methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena (Preisendorfer, 1988), the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) (Fukunaga, 1970; Rundle et al., 2000; Tiampo et al., 2002). This KLE technique may be used to determine the important modes in both time and space for the southern California GPS data, modes that potentially include such time-dependent signals as plate velocities, viscoelasticity, and seasonal effects. Here we attempt to characterize several of the seasonal vertical signals on various spatial scales. These, in turn, can be used to better model geophysical signals of interest such as coseismic deformation, viscoelastic effects, and creep, as well as provide data assimilation and model verification for large-scale numerical simulations of southern California.     

A patch hierarchy approach to modeling surface and subsurface hydrology in complex flood‐plain environments

Geomorphology interacts with surface‐ and ground‐water hydrology across multiple spatial scales. Nonetheless, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models are most commonly implemented at a single spatial scale. Using an existing hydrogeologic computer model, we implemented a simple hierarchical approach to modeling surface‐ and ground‐water hydrology in a complex geomorphic setting. We parameterized the model to simulate ground‐ and surface‐water ?ow patterns through a hierarchical, three‐dimensional, quantitative representation of an anabranched montane alluvial ?ood plain (the Nyack Flood Plain, Middle Fork Flathead River, Montana, USA). Comparison of model results to ?eld data showed that the model provided reasonable representations of spatial patterns of aquifer recharge and discharge, temporal patterns of ?ood‐water storage on the ?ood plain, and rates of ground‐water movement from the main river channel into a large lateral spring channel on the ?ood plain, and water table elevation in the alluvial aquifer. These results suggest that a hierarchical approach to modeling ground‐ and surface‐water hydrology can reproduce realistic patterns of surface‐ and ground‐water ?ux on alluvial ?ood plains, and therefore should provide an excellent ‘quantitative laboratory’ for studying complex interactions between geomorphology and hydrology at and across multiple spatial scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visual method for spectral band selection

We present a new method for performing band selection experiments with spectral data. This method allows for the visual inspection and assessment of the experiment results, and includes a statistical significance test. The method follows a standard feature selection approach in which a multivariate distance measure is used as a figure of merit in a search-optimization procedure. For this letter, we have chosen the Jeffries-Matusita distance between each sample and its immediate background. The band selection methodology uses either an exhaustive search over all possible combinations of 1-4 bands or sequential forward selection. To analyze the band selection results, we count the number of times that each band is selected as a member of the best set by the protocol, and we plot the results as a band frequency histogram. This allows us to visually discern spectral patterns that are not evident otherwise, and thus better assess the utility of each spectral band. We can compute band frequency histograms over individual classes of samples or over groups of classes. In addition, we can compute a significance statistic that gives us the probability that a given histogram is not the result of random band selection outcomes.     

The influence of climate on mechanistic pathways that affect lower food web production in Northern San Francisco Bay estuary

Significant coherence among time series of environmental and biological production variables suggested mechanistic pathways through which climate contributed to the downward shift in estuarine production (biomass) in northern San Francisco Bay estuary, 1975–1993. Climate directly and indirectly affected physical processes in the estuary through precipitation and its subsequent impact on streamflow and physical variables affected by streamflow. Climate also directly influenced air temperature and wind velocity. The influence if climate was evaluated through a climate index based on sea level pressure. A shift in this climate index in the early 1980s coincided with changes in many environmental variables including water transparency, water temperature, wind velocity, and rainfall. These physical changes were accompanied by a decrease in diatom, total zooplankton, andNeomysis mercedis carbon at the base of the food web throughout the estuary. Box-Jenkins time series coherence analysis was used to quantify associations among these physical, chemical, and biological time series for nine regions of the estuary. These associations were used to develop a conceptual model of mechanistic pathways that directly linked food web carbon production to climate. Strong coherence among diatom, zooplankton, andN. mercedis carbon time series suggested climate also had an indirect impact on food web production through trophic cascade. Differing mechanistic pathways among the nine regions of the estuary suggested climate was an important contributor to the spatial variability in total food web production and trophic structure.