Average spectral acceleration as an intensity measure for collapse risk assessment

This paper investigates the performance of spectral acceleration averaged over a period range (Sa_avg) as an intensity measure (IM) for estimating the collapse risk of structures subjected to earthquake loading. The performance of Sa_avg is evaluated using the following criteria: efficiency, sufficiency, the availability or ease of developing probabilistic seismic hazard information in terms of the IM and the variability of collapse risk estimates produced by the IM. Comparisons are also made between Sa_avg and the more traditional IM: spectral acceleration at the first‐mode period of the structure (Sa(T₁)). Though most previous studies have evaluated IMs using a relatively limited set of structures, this paper considers nearly 700 moment‐resisting frame and shear wall structures of various heights to compare the efficiency and sufficiency of the IMs. The collapse risk estimates produced by Sa_avg and Sa(T₁) are also compared, and the variability of the risk estimates is evaluated when different ground motion sets are used to assess the structural response. The results of this paper suggest that Sa_avg, when computed using an appropriate period range, is generally more efficient, more likely to be sufficient and provides more stable collapse risk estimates than Sa(T₁). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Driving factors for forest fire occurrence in Durango State of Mexico: A geospatial perspective

Forest fire is one of the major causes of forest loss and therefore one of the main constraints for sustainable forest management worldwide. Identifying the driving factors and understanding the contribution of each factor are essential for the management of forest fire occurrence. The objective of this study is to identify variables that are spatially related to the occurrence and incidence of the forest fire in the State of Durango, Mexico. For this purpose, data from forest fire records for a five-year period were analyzed. The spatial correlations between forest fire occurrence and intensity of land use, susceptibility of vegetation, temperature, precipitation and slope were tested by Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) method, under an Ordinary Least Square estimator. Results show that the spatial pattern of the forest fire in the study area is closely correlated with the intensity of land use, and land use change is one of the main explanatory variables. In addition, vegetation type and precipitation are also the main driving factors. The fitting model indicates obvious link between the variables. Forest fire was found to be the consequence of a particular combination of the environmental factors, and when these factors coexist with human activities, there is high probability of forest fire occurrence. Mandatory regulation of human activities is a key strategy for forest fire prevention.     

Polarimetric receiver in the forty gigahertz band: new instrument for the Q-U-I joint Tenerife experiment

This paper describes the analysis, design and characterization of a polarimetric receiver developed for covering the 35 to 47 GHz frequency band in the new instrument aimed at completing the ground-based Q-U-I Joint Tenerife Experiment. This experiment is designed to measure polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background. The described high frequency instrument is a HEMT-based array composed of 29 pixels. A thorough analysis of the behaviour of the proposed receiver, based on electronic phase switching, is presented for a noise-like linearly polarized input signal, obtaining simultaneously I, Q and U Stokes parameters of the input signal. Wideband subsystems are designed, assembled and characterized for the polarimeter. Their performances are described showing appropriate results within the 35-to-47 GHz frequency band. Functionality tests are performed at room and cryogenic temperatures with adequate results for both temperature conditions, which validate the receiver concept and performance.     

Larval dispersion of the estuarine crab Neohelice granulata in coastal marine waters of the Southwest Atlantic

The estuarine brachyuran crab Neohelice granulata export their larvae from the parental intertidal population of the Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon, and probably other populations, to marine waters. The degree of larval dispersion or self-recruitment of populations is unknown. We evaluated the presence of all larval stages of N. granulata in coastal waters of Argentina between 37.9° and 35.8° S, at two different spatial scales: a broad scale of tens to hundreds of kilometers from the Río de la Plata estuary in the north, to Mar Chiquita lagoon in the south, and a small scale of hundreds of meters to some kilometers around the mouth of Mar Chiquita, during spring and summer. Additionally, we registered the larval composition and density at San Clemente creek population, in Samborombon Bay (Río de la Plata estuary), every 3 h along a 30-hour period. Evidence indicates that larval release of N. granulata is temporally synchronized with nocturnal ebb tides and all development from Zoea I to Zoea IV occur in areas close to the parental population, even with very different oceanographic characteristics. A possible mechanism based on salinity selection and wind-driven transport is proposed for such behavior, and some considerations related to the connectivity of present populations are made.     

Suction and time effects in rockfill deformation

Ambient relative humidity controls the stress-strain-time behaviour of granular media exhibiting particle breakage. Breakage is the result of crack propagation inside loaded particles. The DEM model developed uses the results of subcritical crack propagation in brittle rock to predict breakage and the subsequent structural rearrangement. Two closed-form solutions at grain level, stress distribution under diametrically opposed forces and the mode I crack propagation velocity, were included in the DEM formulation. Crack propagation velocity depends explicitly on relative humidity. The resulting model incorporates comminution and splitting modes of particle breakage as well as arbitrary grain shapes by means of aggregation of spherical microparticles. The model was first validated against a large diameter suction-controlled oedometer test on hard limestone crushed gravel. Direct tests on contact properties (local stiffness and friction) helped to validate the model. The model was then used to predict the response of large diameter suction-controlled triaxial tests on gravels having different (uniform) initial sizes. Time delayed deformations and wetting-induced collapse deformations under maintained load are also a natural outcome of the model. They were shown to follow quite accurately the experimental results.     

Identifying non-stationary and long-term river–aquifer interactions as a response to large climatic patterns and anthropogenic pressures using wavelet analysis (Mancha Oriental Aquifer,Spain)

The objective of this study was to analyse periodicities and the long-term variability of monthly Júcar River–Mancha Oriental Aquifer interactions (RAI) and regionally measured precipitation (PP) with special focus on the correlations between these local hydrological variables and the large climatic patterns governing the Iberian Peninsula, represented by their teleconnection indices – the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOi) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi). To that end, wavelet analysis has been applied since it not only provides insight into the time-series dynamics but also permits statistical interpretation and correlation analysis. As a result, several periodicities have been detected: intermittent semi-annual periodicity in PP and the NAOi and annual periodicity in the RAI, NAOi and WeMOi time series. Long cycles (approximately 14 years) are also observed in the PP and WeMOi time series. The cross-wavelet spectra show a correlation between the RAI and the rest of the variables on the semi-annual and the annual scales, while wavelet coherence detects common behaviour with longer cycles – 5–6 years between the NAOi and the RAI and cycles of both 1–5 years and 7–10 years between PP and the RAI. Furthermore, results show that the periodicities in the teleconnection indices and precipitation propagate into the RAI with certain lead times: 3 months between the RAI and PP and 6 months between the RAI and the NAOi. The results indicate that the detected periodicities and the coherence between the studied variables could have applications in strategic planning on a river basin scale, taking into account the propagation times and the frequency scale. This methodological approach can be applied into strategic water resource planning independently of the geographical location of the hydrogeological system, the basin size and the climate region.     

A fully coupled simple model for unsaturated soils

Different phenomena influence the strength and volumetric behavior of unsaturated soils. Among the most important are suction hardening, hydraulic hysteresis, and the influence of volumetric strain on the soil-water retention curves. Fully coupled hydro-mechanical models require including all three phenomena in their constitutive relationships. Among these phenomena, suction hardening is the most influencing as it determines the apparent preconsolidation stress, the position of the loading-collapse yield surface, and the shift of both the isotropic consolidation and the critical state lines. In this paper, a fully coupled hydro mechanical model is presented. It is based on the modified Cam-Clay model but includes a yield surface with anisotropic hardening that takes account of the shift of the critical state line with suction. For highly overconsolidated materials, the sub-loading surface concept has been included in order to increase the precision of the model for these materials. The shift of the retention curves produced by volumetric strains is simulated using a hydraulic model based on the grain and current pore size distribution of the soil.