Paleoclimate histories improve access and sustainability in index insurance programs

Proxy-based climate reconstructions can extend instrumental records by hundreds of years, providing a wealth of climate information at high temporal resolution. To date, however, their usefulness for informing climate risk and variability in policy and social applications has been understudied. Here, we apply tree-ring based reconstructions of drought for the last 700 years in a climate index insurance framework to show that additional information from long climate reconstructions significantly improves our understanding of the underlying climate distributions and variability. We further show that this added information can be used to better characterize risk to insurance providers, in many cases providing meaningful reductions in long-term contract costs to farmers in stand-alone policies. The impact of uncertainty on insurance premiums can also be reduced when insurers diversify portfolios, and the availability of long-term climate information from tree rings across a broad geographic range provides an opportunity to characterize spatial correlation in climate risk across geographic regions. Our results are robust to the range of climate variability experienced over the last 400 years and in model simulations of the twenty-first century, even within the context of changing baselines due to low frequency variability and secular climate trends. These results demonstrate the utility of longer-term climate histories in index insurance applications. Furthermore, they make the case from a climate-variability perspective for the continued importance of such approaches to improving the instrumental climate record, even into a non-stationary climate future.     

Problematic but promising ponds? Palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Norse Eastern Settlement of Greenland

Pollen‐ and related proxy‐based studies of human–environment interactions during the Norse and later periods within Greenland have primarily involved the investigation of peat, lake and soil deposits, all of which have taphonomic and sampling problems. Many small ponds exist, but they seem to have been relatively ignored in investigations of palaeoecologically based environmental history. To evaluate their usefulness for studies of ecologically related cultural history, especially where sites are in intimate association with the archaeology, a pond in the Norse Eastern Settlement has been examined to investigate three principal questions: (i) Does such a site contain a useful record of environmental history? (ii) Does it offer a record of sufficient resolution and sensitivity for the study of anthropogenic landscape impacts? (iii) Are there any apparent drawbacks to these sequences? Using data obtained from palynological, diatom, sedimentological and radiocarbon analyses, it is concluded that environmental data for each proxy – aside from ¹⁴C dating – are clearly capable of being explained in a reasonably straightforward and compatible manner and fulfil the hopes for the sampling medium. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Miniaturization of the flowing fluid electric conductivity logging technique

An understanding of the hydraulic properties of the aquifer and the depth distribution of salts is critical for evaluating the potential of ground water for conjunctive water use and for maintaining suitable ground water quality in agricultural regions where ground water is used extensively for irrigation and drinking water. The electrical conductivity profiles recorded in a well using the flowing fluid electric conductivity (FEC) logging method can be analyzed to estimate interval-specific hydraulic conductivity and estimates of the salinity concentration with depth. However, operating irrigation wells commonly allow limited access, and the traditional equipment used for FEC logging cannot fit through the small access pipe intersecting the well. A modified, miniaturized FEC logging technique was developed for use in wells with limited access. In addition, a new method for injecting water over the entire screened interval of the well reduces the time required to perform FEC logging.     

Development of saline ground water through transpiration of sea water

As vegetation usually excludes salt during water uptake, transpiration will increase the salinity of the residual water. If the source water is sea water, then the residual water may become highly saline. In the unconfined coastal aquifer of the tropical Burdekin River delta, northeastern Australia, areas of highly saline ground water with chloride concentrations up to almost three times that of sea water occur up to 15 km from the present coastline, and are attributed to transpiration by mangrove vegetation during periods of high sea level. Radiogenic ((14)C) carbon isotope analyses indicate that ground water with chloride concentrations between 15,000 and 35,000 mg/L is mostly between 4000 and 6000 years old, at which time sea level was 2 to 3 m higher than present. Stable isotope analyses of oxygen-18 and deuterium show no evidence for evaporative enrichment of this water. Oxygen-18, deuterium, and stable (delta(13)C) carbon isotope analyses of ground water and soil water point to a recharge environment beneath the mangrove forests during this postglacial sea level high stand. During that period, transpiration of the mangrove forests would have led to high chloride concentrations in the residual ground water, without inducing isotopic fractionation. Due to the higher density, this hypersaline water moved downward through the aquifer by gravity and has formed lenses of highly saline ground water at the bottom of the unconfined aquifer.     

Cosmic‐ray exposure ages of pallasites

We analyzed cosmogenic nuclides in metal and/or silicate (primarily olivine) separated from the main‐group pallasites Admire, Ahumada, Albin, Brahin, Brenham, Esquel, Finmarken, Glorieta Mountain, Huckitta, Imilac, Krasnojarsk, Marjalahti, Molong, Seymchan, South Bend, Springwater, and Thiel Mountains and from Eagle Station. The metal separates contained an olivine fraction which although small, <1 wt% in most cases, nonetheless contributes significantly to the budgets of some nuclides (e.g., up to 35% for ²¹Ne and ²⁶Al). A correction for olivine is therefore essential and was made using model calculations and/or empirical relations for the production rates of cosmogenic nuclides in iron meteoroids and/or measured elemental concentrations. Cosmic‐ray exposure (CRE) ages for the metal phases of the main‐group pallasites range from 7 to 180 Ma, but many of the ages cluster around a central peak near 100 Ma. These CRE ages suggest that the parent body of the main‐group pallasites underwent a major break‐up that produced most of the meteorites analyzed. The CRE age distribution for the pallasites overlaps only a small fraction of the distribution for the IIIAB iron meteorites. Most pallasites and IIIAB irons originated in different collisions, probably on different parent bodies; a few IIIABs and pallasites may have come out of the same collision but a firm conclusion requires further study. CRE ages calculated from noble gas and radionuclide data of the metal fraction are higher on average than the ²¹Ne exposure ages obtained for the olivine samples. As the metal and olivine fractions were taken in most cases from different specimens, the depth‐dependency of the production rate ratio ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne in metal, not accounted for in our calculations, may explain the difference.     

A 421-d activity cycle in the BeX recurrent transient A0538–66 from MACHO monitoring

We present a ∼5-yr optical light curve of the recurrent Be/X-ray transient A0538–66 obtained as a by-product of the MACHO Project. These data reveal both a long-term modulation at P =420.8±0.8 d and a short-term modulation at 16.6510±0.0022 d which, within errors, confirms the previously found orbital period. Furthermore, the orbital activity is only seen at certain phases of the 421-d cycle, suggesting that the long-term modulation is related to variations in the Be star envelope.     

Plasma electron signatures of magnetic connection to the Jovian bow shock: Ulysses observations

Ulysses plasma electron observations of bidirectional and enhanced unidirectional electron heat fluxes within 4500 R_J (0.8 a.u. or 3 months on either side of closest approach) of Jupiter are presented as evidence for the magnetic connection of the spacecraft to the Jovian bow shock. These bursts of suprathermal electrons (> 30 eV) are observed when the interplanetary magnetic field points roughly parallel or antiparallel to the Jupiter-spacecraft line. Ninety-eight possible connection events were found over the 6 month period centered on the closest approach to Jupiter. The frequency of occurrence peaked with proximity to the bow shock, with most events occurring post-encounter. These are the first observations of backstreaming suprathermal electrons made in the vicinity of the Jovian bow shock.