Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric minor constituent chemistry

Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constitutent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time. The long-term contribution to stratospheric CIX by volcanic eruptions is estimated as 0.1 ppbv for the period 1900–60 and 1 ppbv for the much more volcanically active period 1780–1840. All of the estimates are subject to large uncertainties, perhaps a factor of 2 or 3 on the high side and a factor of 10 or more on the low side.Paper presented at the IAGA/IAMAP Joint Assembly, Seattle, WA, U.S.A., August 1977.     

Finite strain and progressive deformation in models of diapiric structures

The distribution of strain within and around gravitationally produced diapiric structures was studied through the use of experimental models which were deformed in a large-capacity centrifuge. A new method of model construction was developed which is equivalent to building the model of initially square 1-mm elements. After deformation the elements assume shapes which approximate parallelograms and their finite strains can easily be calculated. If several initially identical models are deformed to different extents, the finite strain states of an element in each of the models define points on the deformation path of that element. The deformation path can be used to make estimates of the nature of the internal fabric which would be expected in the equivalent element of the natural structure.This method was applied to the study of the finite strain in diapiric ridges. The models demonstrate that the highest strain is always in the region above the diapir. Within the diapir initial vertical stretching is followed by vertical flattening. Large portions of the structure can be seen to suffer what would in natural examples be called polyphase deformation, even though all of the deformation was due to a single buoyant overturn of unstable density stratification. The strain patterns within the models support the contention that in salt diapirs the buoyant salt has a lower viscosity than the overlying sediments, but that in mantled gneiss domes the reverse is true.     

Early Tertiary rupture of the Pacific plate: 1700 km of dextral offset along the Emperor trough-Line Islands lineament

Between 67 and ～40 Ma ago a northwest-southeast-trending fracture system over 8000 km long split the Pacific plate and accumulated at least 1700 km of dextral offset between the east and west portions. This system, here named the Emperor fracture zone (EFZ) system, consisted of several segments, one along the present trace of the Emperor trough and another along the Line Islands, joined by short spreading ridges. The EFZ terminated at its northern end against the Kula-Pacific ridge, and at its southern end in a ridge-transform system, called the Emperor spreading system, which extended to the west, north of Australia.The finite angular velocity vector describing the relative motion between the East and West Pacific plates is ～0.6°/Ma about a pole at 36°N, 70°W. This vector, added to the known Early Tertiary motion of the Pacific plate with respect to the global hotspot reference frame, accounts in large part for the NNW trend of the Emperor seamount chain relative to the WNW Hawaiian trend, without violation of the integrity of the Antarctic plate. The Meiji-Emperor and Emperor-Hawaiian bends date, respectively, the initiation (～67 Ma ago) and cessation (～40 Ma ago) of seafloor spreading on the Emperor spreading system.The postulated Early Tertiary relative motion along the EFZ between the East and West Pacific plates explains (1) the present misalignment of the two sets of magnetic bights of the Pacific, (2) the abrupt truncation of eastern Pacific bathymetric lineaments against the Emperor trough and Line Islands, (3) the contrast in paleolatitude between the eastern and western Pacific as indicated by paleomagnetic and sedimentologic studies, and (4) the anomalous gravity signature of the central Hawaiian ridge that indicates that the ridge loaded thin hot lithosphere.     

Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK

Global change is expected to result in worldwide increases in temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns. Such changes have the potential to modify stability of slopes, both natural and constructed. This paper discusses the potential effect of global climate change on reactivation of landslides through examination of predicted changes in rainfall pattern on the active landslide at Mam Tor, Derbyshire, UK. This landslide is of Pleistocene origin and is crossed by a road that is now abandoned. Damaging winter movement is known to occur when precipitation reaches both 1-month triggering and 6-month antecedent thresholds. Return periods for threshold exceedence is modelled statistically, and the climate change data from the UKCIP 2002 report (Hulme et al. 2002) is applied to this model. For the predicted changes in precipitation, it is shown that the instability threshold could decrease from 4 to 3.5 years by the 2080s for the medium–high climate change scenario. However, predicted temperature changes could influence the response of the landslide through increased evapotranspiration leading to a change in the triggering precipitation thresholds, and this will help counter the impact of changes in precipitation. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in the model has been used to establish the factors that contribute to the predicted changes in stability. Assessment of these factors can provide an indication of the potential impact of climate change on landslides in other areas of the UK.     

Geochronological challenges posed by continuously developing tectonometamorphic systems: insights from Rb–Sr mica ages from the Cycladic Blueschist Belt,Syros (Greece)

Is metamorphism and its causative tectonics best viewed as a series of punctuated events or as a continuum? This question is addressed through examination of the timing of exhumation of the Cycladic Blueschist Belt (CBB). The cause of scatter beyond analytical error in Rb–Sr geochronology was investigated using a suite of 39 phengite samples. Rb–Sr ages have been measured on phengite microsamples drilled from specific microstructures in thin sections of calcschists and metabasites from the CBB on Syros. The majority are from samples that have well‐preserved blueschist facies mineral assemblages with limited greenschist facies overprint. The peak metamorphic temperatures involved are below the closure temperature for white mica so that crystallization ages are expected to be preserved. This is supported by the coexistence of different ages in microstructures of different relative age; in one sample phengite from the dominant extensional blueschist facies fabric preserves an age of 35 Ma while post‐tectonic mica, millimetres away, has an age of 26 Ma. The results suggest that micro‐sampling techniques linked to detailed microstructural analysis are critical to understanding the timing and duration of deformation in tectonometamorphic systems. North of the Serpentinite Belt in northern Syros, phengite Rb–Sr ages are generally between 53 and 46 Ma, comparable to previous dates from this area. South of the Serpentinite Belt phengite in blueschist facies assemblages associated with extensional fabrics linked to exhumation have ages that range from 42 Ma down to c. 30 Ma indicating that extensional deformation while still under blueschist facies conditions continued until 30 Ma. No age measurements on samples with unambiguous evidence of deformation under greenschist facies conditions were made; two rocks with greenschist facies assemblages gave phengite ages that overlap with the younger blueschist samples, suggesting blueschist facies phengite is preserved in these rocks. Two samples yielded ages below 27 Ma; one is from a post‐tectonic microstructure, the other from a greenschist in which the fabric developed during earlier blueschist facies conditions. These ages are consistent with previous evidence of greenschist facies conditions from c. 25 Ma onwards. The data are consistent with a model of deformation that is continuous on a regional scale.     

State versus Capital: The Regulation of the Vietnamese Foreign Sector

The debate over globalisation and the state has been sharpened by the emergence of such transitional economies as China and Vietnam. These states have become the subject of considerable attention, both in terms of the form that production is taking and the manner in which they interact with international capital. In both cases, interaction with international capital and the establishment of elements of the market economy have taken place under the auspices of highly centralised single party states. The resulting approach to the forces of economic globalisation has been both highly interventionist and, at times, extremely heavy-handed. As such, both countries may be seen as being seriously out of step with the advocates of liberalisation and economic globalisation. This paper seeks to further the understanding of the position of such states through an examination of Vietnam at two levels: first, through an overview of the distinctive and changing nature of the interaction and, second, through an examination of the nature and consequences of the differential treatment of labour and capital for foreign companies operating in Vietnam.