Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change andFacilitating Adaptation

We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climatevariability and change andattempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability andadaptation. In searchof a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms ofthe capacity ofindividuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recoverfrom or adapt to, anyexternal stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach thatwe develop placesthe social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis,focussing on thesocio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity torespond. From thisperspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined byresource availability andby the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. Weillustrate theapplication of this approach through the results of field research in coastalVietnam, highlightingshifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household-and community-levelin response to the current process of economic renovation and drawingconclusions concerningmeans of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four prioritiesfor action areidentified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members ofmany communities:poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respectingcommon propertymanagement rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response,we argue, mustalso address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including theinequitable distributionof resources.     

柴达木盆地三湖地区生物气横向运聚成藏研究

本文系统研究了地层水盐度对微生物菌生长发育的制约，矿化度对生物气在地层水中溶解度的影响，泥岩盖层中高矿化度地层水对封盖性能的控制作用。柴达木盆地三湖（台吉乃尔湖，涩聂湖，达布逊湖）地区主要受南缘昆仑山冰雪溶水的补给，地层水从南向北运移，北斜坡第四系地层水的矿化度最高，北斜坡泻水-汇水区高盐度条件下生物菌的活跃程度受到抑制，影响生物气大量生成并从水中游离出来，中央凹陷及其南部低矿化度条件下更适宜生物气的生成，生物气在地层水中的溶解度随矿化度的增高明显降低，南缘低矿化度水中饱含的生物气经地层水从南向北携带，在北斜坡高矿化度条件上大量游离出来，实验测试证明泥岩饱和高矿化度地层水时，其突破压力增加约100倍，封盖性能大大提高，有效地保存了北斜坡游离相生物气，研究显示生物气总体上具有向北斜坡以水溶气方式进行横向运聚的特征，展示了北斜坡气源补给充足，具有满坡含气的巨大勘探潜力。结合生物气本身的发育特征和三湖地区的水文地质条件，提出了生物所首先以水溶气方式发生远距离的横向运移以后再以游离相进行垂向运聚成藏，这一结论对下一步三湖地区生物气勘探具有直接的指导意义。     

Regional- and district-level drivers of timber harvesting in European Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the forestry sector in Russia underwent substantial changes: the state forestry sector was decentralized, the timber industry was privatized, and timber use rights were allocated through short- and long-term leases. To date, there has been no quantitative assessment of the drivers of timber harvesting in European Russia following these changes. In this paper we estimate an econometric model of timber harvesting using remote sensing estimations of forest disturbance from 1990–2000 to 2000–2005 as our dependent variable. We aggregate forest disturbance to administrative districts – equivalent to counties in the United States – and test the impact of several biophysical and economic factors on timber harvesting. Additionally, we examine the impact that regions – equivalent to states in the United States and the main level of decentralized governance in Russia – have on timber harvesting by estimating the influence of regional-level effects on forest disturbance in our econometric model. Russian regions diverged considerably in political and economic conditions after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the question is if these variations impacted timber harvesting after controlling for district-level biophysical and economic drivers. We find that the most important drivers of timber harvesting at the district level are road density, the percent of evergreen forest, and the total area of forest. The influence of these variables on timber harvesting changed over time and there was more harvesting closer to urban areas in 2000–2005. Even though district-level variables explain more than 70 percent of the variation in forest disturbance in our econometric model, we find that regional-level effects remain statistically significant. While we cannot identify the exact mechanism through which regional-level effects impact timber harvesting, our results suggest that sub-national differences can have a large and statistically significant impact on land-use outcomes and should be considered in policy design and evaluation.     

利用探空资料验证GOME卫星臭氧数据

利用1996年3月-2003年6月部分时段拉萨、西宁、北京3个站的臭氧探空资料验证了GOME（Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment）卫星臭氧廓线及对流层臭氧柱总量。对比结果表明:在对流层中下层,拉萨和西宁两地GOME与探空的平均偏差小于5%,北京地区平均偏差小于10%;在对流层上层/平流层下层,拉萨和西宁平均偏差小于10%,北京小于20%;在平流层中上层3个站的平均偏差均小于5%。在对流层上层/平流层下层区域,GOME与臭氧探空的平均偏差在北京明显高于拉萨和西宁。3个地区对流层柱总量的平均偏差都在10%以内,表明该资料可用于研究我国对流层臭氧总量的变化规律。同时段的GOME最低层（0~2.5km）月平均臭氧浓度对比结果显示,GOME结果同地面臭氧观测值有很好的相关性,GOME臭氧浓度反映了拉萨、瓦里关、临安地面臭氧浓度的主要变化特征。     

Do S-type granites commonly sample infracrustal sources? New results from an integrated O, U–Pb and Hf isotope study of zircon

In contrast to I-type granites, which commonly comprise infracrustal and supracrustal sources, S-type granites typically incorporate predominantly supracrustal sources. The initial aim of this study was to identify the sources of three Scottish Caledonian (~460 Ma) S-type granites (Kemnay, Cove and Nigg Bay) by conducting oxygen, U–Pb and Hf isotope analyses in zircon in order to characterise one potential end-member magma involved in the genesis of the voluminous late Caledonian (~430–400 Ma) I-type granites. Field, whole-rock geochemical and isotopic data are consistent with the generation of the S-type granites by melting their Dalradian Supergroup country rocks. While Hf isotope compositions of magmatic zircon, U–Pb data of inherited zircons, and high mean zircon δ¹⁸O values of 9.0 ± 2.7‰ (2SD) and 9.8 ± 2.0‰ for the Kemnay and Cove granites support this model, the Nigg Bay Granite contains zircons with much lower δ¹⁸O values (6.8 ± 2.1‰), similar to those found in Scottish I-type granites. This suggests that the Nigg Bay Granite contains low-δ¹⁸O material representing either altered supracrustal material, or more likely, an infracrustal source component with mantle-like δ¹⁸O. Mixing trends in plots of δ¹⁸O vs. εHf for S-type granite zircons indicate involvement of at least two sources in all three granites. This pilot study of Scottish Caledonian S-type granites demonstrates that, while field and whole-rock geochemical data are consistent with local melting of only supracrustal sources, the oxygen isotopic record stored in zircon reveals a much more complex petrogenetic evolution involving two or more magma sources.