Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Reproduction of Pechora runoff hydrographs with the help of a model of heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere (SWAP)

The potentialities of a procedure for calculating the Pechora River runoff from the pan-Arctic river basin are studied. The procedure is based on the use of a model describing heat and water exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere and two variants of input data sets relying on global databases on meteorological characteristics and land surface parameters and data of standard measurements of meteorological characteristics in combination with parameters of the land surface of the basin, taken from global databases. In both cases, use was made of the method for optimizing part of the most important model parameters, including both land surface parameters and correction factors for some meteorological elements.     

Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.     

A contribution to the theory of the equatorial noise generation in the Earth’s magnetosphere

This work is devoted to the study of the generation of the equatorial noise—electromagnetic emission below the LHR frequency observed near the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere at distances of ~4R_E. According to accepted views, the generation of the equatorial noise is related to the instability of ring current protons. In this work, a logarithmic distribution of energetic protons over the magnetic moment with an empty loss cone is proposed, and arguments for the formation of such a distribution are presented. The main result of the work is the calculation and analysis of the instability growth rate of waves forming the equatorial noise. The growth rate obtained in this work significantly differs from that encountered in the literature.     

Analysis of southeast Australian zooplankton observations of 1938-42 using synoptic oceanographic conditions

The research vessel Warreen obtained 1742 planktonic samples along the continental shelf and slope of southeast Australia from 1938-42, representing the earliest spatially and temporally resolved zooplankton data from Australian marine waters. In this paper, Warreen observations along the southeast Australian seaboard from 28°S to 38°S are interpreted based on synoptic meteorological and oceanographic conditions and ocean climatologies. Meteorological conditions are based on the NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Project; oceanographic conditions use Warreen hydrological observations, and the ocean climatology is the CSIRO Atlas of Regional Seas. The Warreen observations were undertaken in waters on average 0.45 °C cooler than the climatological average, and included the longest duration El Niño of the 20th century. In northern New South Wales (NSW), week time-scale events dominate zooplankton response. In August 1940 an unusual winter upwelling event occurred in northern NSW driven by a stronger than average East Australian Current (EAC) and anomalous northerly winds that resulted in high salp and larvacean abundance. In January 1941 a strong upwelling event between 28° and 33°S resulted in a filament of upwelled water being advected south and alongshore, which was low in zooplankton biovolume. In southern NSW a seasonal cycle in physical and planktonic characteristics is observed. In January 1941 the poleward extension of the EAC was strong, advecting more tropical tunicate species southward. Zooplankton abundance and distribution on the continental shelf and slope are more dependent on weekly to monthly timescales on local oceanographic and meteorological conditions than continental-scale interannual trends. The interpretation of historical zooplankton observations of the waters off southeast Australia for the purpose of quantifying anthropogenic impacts will be improved with the use of regional hindcasts of synoptic ocean and atmospheric weather that can explain some of the physically forced natural variability.     

Integration of biochemical, histochemical and toxicogenomic indices for the assessment of health status of mussels from the Tamar Estuary, U.K

The aim of this study was to examine whether a combination of biochemical, histopathological and toxicogenomic data could be used as a valuable tool for the assessment of biological risk associated with pollutants within the Tamar River and Estuary, S.W. England, U.K. Accordingly, biochemical and histopathological biomarkers (protein carbonyls, lipofuscin, neutral lipids, lysosomal stability [N-acetyl-β-hexosaminidase and neutral red], lysosomal volume, ferric reducing antioxidant power [FRAP] and malonaldehyde [MDA]) and gene expression profiles were assessed in 5 sites from the Tamar River and Estuary (Neal Point, Town Quay, Wilcove, Cremyll Ferry and Whitsand; and a reference site, Trebarwith Strand, N. Cornwall). PAHs were measured in mussel tissue and sediment and metals were measured in mussel tissue only. Data from the biomarkers was integrated into a Mussel Expert System (MES) model to produce a simple assessment of mussel stress. Clear gradients of mussel toxicity were identified by the biomarkers (with the exception of neutral lipids) with the highest impacted animals found furthest up the Tamar, whilst the MES was unable to identify a gradient of effect. Gene expression profiles also indicated a gradient of stress with the greatest number of significantly up- or down- regulated genes found at the uppermost 2 sites. The MES did, however, determine that mussels from all sites, except the reference site, were highly stressed; a conclusion that could not be inferred from the biomarker data alone. It is concluded that the MES is a valuable tool that permits integration and interpretation of complex sets of biomarker data by identifying the biological meaning of biomarker changes.     

Primary production and fluxes of organic carbon to the seabed in the Russian Arctic seas as a response to the recent warming

The primary production and fluxes of organic matter to the seabed and their variations were estimated in the Norwegian, Greenland, Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas in 2003–2008 on the basis of satellite and field data. When counting the open water area with the assumptions made for the assessment of the primary production in the regions hidden under clouds, the reliable trends of its variability (increasing) were revealed only in the Greenland, Barents, and Kara seas.     

Composition and secondary alterations of microfossils in sediments of the Ashadze-1 hydrothermal field (tropical Mid-Atlantic Ridge)

The first thorough analysis of microfossils from ore-bearing sediments of the Ashadze-1 hydrothermal field in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge sampled during cruise 26 of the R/V Professor Logachev in 2005 revealed the substantial influence of hydrothermal processes on the preservation of planktonic calcareous organisms, as well as on the preservation and composition of the benthic foraminifers. From the lateral and vertical distribution patterns and the secondary alterations of the microfossils, it is inferred that the main phase of the hydrothermal mineralization occurred in the Holocene. Heavy metals (Cu, Co, Cr, and Ag) were accumulated by foraminiferal tests and in their enveloping Fe-Mn crusts. The distribution of authigenic minerals replacing foraminiferal tests demonstrates local zoning related to the hydrothermal activity. There are three mineral-geochemical zones defined: the sulfide zone, the zone with an elevated Mg content, and zone of Fe-Mn crusts.     

Biogeochemical Modelling of a Seasonally Anoxic Lake: Calibration of Successive and Competitive Pathways and Processes in Lake Aydat,France

A reactive transport model was developed to describe seasonal variations of biogeochemical and physical processes in Lake Aydat. The model includes physical processes such as vertical mixing, sedimentation and advection related to inflows into the lake and biogeochemical conversion processes in the water column and in the sediment surface layer. The reactions described in the model include primary redox reactions such as primary production, aerobic and anaerobic respiration, methanogenesis and secondary reactions established between oxidants and reducers produced by the primary reactions. After adjusting various kinetic constants, the model reasonably reproduced the main features of seasonal variations of dissolved oxygen and nitrate depth profiles and pH. The reactive transport model was also used to quantify the relative importance of different biogeochemical pathways. For instance, ferrous denitrification seems to play an important role when stratification is increasing.