The earthquake sequence of May 1951 at Jucuapa, El Salvador

Three earthquakes that happened over two days in May 1951 caused extensive damage to villages in a small area of eastern El Salvador (Central America). Contemporary hypocentral solutions indicated focal depths, confirmed by re-calculations using available seismic data, of the order of 90 km, suggesting events associated with the subducted Cocos plate. Macroseismic observations strongly indicate that the earthquakes were of very shallow focus and this is supported by wave-form modeling and the appearance of seismograms recorded in Guatemala. A re-evaluation of the location and source characteristics for these events is presented, together with a fault plane solution and additional macroseismic evidence. The implications for seismic hazard and risk assessment in Central America, where shallow earthquakes of moderate magnitude, frequently occurring in clusters, pose the greatest threat to settlements which, like the area affected by these events, are concentrated along the axis of Quaternary volcanoes.     

Comparative toxicities of chlorinated biphenyls on sea urchin egg fertilisation and embryogenesis

The aim of this study was to compare the biological actions of selected chlorinated biphenyls (CB's) (with different degrees of chlorine substitution), using the sea urchin test system, for their ability to affect fertilisation, embryogenesis and mitotic activity. Sea urchin embryos were exposed to the test agents throughout larval development or for shorter intervals (e.g. before or after hatching). Sperm or eggs were exposed before fertilisation, thereafter the contaminants were removed from embryo cultures. The results showed maximal activities from medium-chlorinated (tetra- and hexachloro-substituted) compounds, as compared to low- and high-chlorinated biphenyls (mono-, di- and octachloro-substituted), at nominal levels ranging from 10⁻⁶m to 10⁻⁵m. This held true for the different parameters and treatment schedules. Developmental defects were only detected following post hatching exposure of embryos to CB's, whereas pre-hatching exposure failed to reveal any embryological or cytogenetic abnormalities.     

Meteorological monitoring of an active volcano: Implications for eruption prediction

Rainfall data collected on and around the Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat between 1998 and 2003 were analysed to assess the impact on primary volcanic activity, defined here as pyroclastic flows, dome collapses, and explosions. Fifteen such rainfall-triggered events were identified. If greater than 20 mm of rain fell on a particular day, the probability of a dome collapse occurring on that day increased by a factor of 6.3% to 9.2%, compared to a randomly chosen day. Similarly, the probability of observing pyroclastic flows and explosions on a day with > 20 mm of rainfall increased by factors of 2.6 and 5.4, respectively. These statistically significant links increased as the rainfall threshold was increased. Seventy percent of these rainfall-induced dome collapse episodes occurred on the same calendar day (most within a few hours) as the onset of intense rainfall, but an extra 3 occurred one or two calendar days later. The state of the volcano was important, with the rainfall–volcanic activity link being strongest during periods of unstable dome growth and weakest during periods of no dome growth or after a recent major collapse.Over 50% of the heavy rain days were associated with large-scale weather systems that can potentially be forecast up to a few days ahead. However, the remaining heavy rain days were associated with small-scale, essentially unpredictable weather systems. There was significant variability in the amount of rainfall recorded by different rain gauges, reflecting topographic variations around the volcano but also the inherent small-scale variability within an individual weather system. Hence, any monitoring/warning program is recommended to use a network, rather than just a single gauge. The seasonal cycle in rainfall was pronounced, with nearly all the heavy rain days occurring in the May–December wet season. Hence, the dome was at its most vulnerable at the beginning of the wet season after a period of uninterrupted growth. Interannual variability in rainfall was related to tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies, and holds out the prospect of some limited skill in volcanic hazard forecasts at even longer lead times.     

Practical Postcalibration Uncertainty Analysis: Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The values of parameters in a groundwater flow model govern the precision of predictions of future system behavior. Predictive precision, thus, typically depends on an ability to infer values of system properties from historical measurements through calibration. When such data are scarce, or when their information content with respect to parameters that are most relevant to predictions of interest is weak, predictive uncertainty may be high, even if the model is "calibrated." Recent advances help recognize this condition, quantitatively evaluate predictive uncertainty, and suggest a path toward improved predictive accuracy by identifying sources of predictive uncertainty and by determining what observations will most effectively reduce this uncertainty. We demonstrate linear and nonlinear predictive error/uncertainty analyses as applied to a groundwater flow model of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the United States' proposed site for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Linear and nonlinear uncertainty analyses are readily implemented as an adjunct to model calibration with medium to high parameterization density. Linear analysis yields contributions made by each parameter to a prediction's uncertainty and the worth of different observations, both existing and yet-to-be-gathered, toward reducing this uncertainty. Nonlinear analysis provides more accurate characterization of the uncertainty of model predictions while yielding their (approximate) probability distribution functions. This article applies the above methods to a prediction of specific discharge and confirms the uncertainty bounds on specific discharge supplied in the Yucca Mountain Project License Application.     

Analysis of the reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere using the climate model of the institute of numerical mathematics,Russian academy of sciences

The reproduction of dynamic processes in the stratosphere at extratropical latitudes is considered in calculations of the atmospheric module of the global climate model of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, with an upper boundary of 0.2 hPa (~60 km) for the period from 1979 to 2008 in comparison with the data observational. Changes in temperature, zonal wind, activity of planetary waves, heat fluxes in the lower stratosphere, and sudden stratospheric warmings with the displacement and splitting of the polar vortex, as well as the distribution of associated circulation anomalies in the troposphere, are analyzed.     

Study of neotectonic activity of morphostructures in the central part of the east european craton by remote sensing methods

The combined approach is used for studying recent tectonic activity in the central part of the East European Craton (EEC).This approach incorporates the methods of automated lineament analysis and satellite geodesy with the conventional geological mapping analysis. The space tectonic map (space image based) is reconstructed, and morphostructures that are active at the recent and present tectonic stage are delineated by processing the Landsat image mosaic. The direction and rate of horizontal displacement of crustal blocks, which is caused by deep geodynamical processes, are determined using the GPS data. The study is preliminary since only few GPS stations within the EEC have sufficiently long time series of observations.     

Benthic macrofauna and productivity regimes in the Barents Sea — Ecological implications in a changing Arctic

Benthic faunal assemblages were analysed from 47 stations in the central and southern parts of the Barents Sea, together with sedimentary and water column parameters, daily ice records and modelled integrated primary productivity. Sampling spanned areas influenced by Atlantic Water (AW) to those lying under Arctic Water (ArW), and included stations with mixed water masses. Ice cover suppressed water column productivity in the northern areas. Three main faunal groups were identified, based on similarity of numerical faunal composition. The northern and southern faunal groups were separated by the northernmost penetration of AW in the bottom water and the third group, the Hopen group, was influenced by modified bank water. Faunal abundances were significantly higher within the southern faunal group relative to the northern group, but the numbers of taxa present were similar. The particularly rich fauna of the Hopen group reflected sediment heterogeneity and tight pelagic–benthic coupling. These results suggest that a retreat and thinning of the ice cover in the Barents Sea likely will result in the northern parts of the Barents Sea becoming more Atlantic in character, with a higher productivity at the sea floor.     

The distribution of chlorophyll-a and dominant planktonic components in the coastal transition zone off Concepción, central Chile, during different oceanographic conditions

The oceanographic setting and the planktonic distribution in the coastal transition zone off Concepción (∼35-38°S, ∼73-77°W), an area characterized by its high biological production, were assessed during two different seasons: austral spring with equatorward upwelling favorable winds and austral winter with predominately northerly winds. Oceanographic and biological data (total chlorophyll-a, particulate organic carbon, microplankton, large mesozooplankton >500 μm as potential consumers of microplankton) were obtained during two cruises (October 1998, July 1999) together with satellite imagery for wind stress, geostrophic flow, surface temperature, and chlorophyll-a data. The physical environment during the spring sampling was typical of the upwelling period in this region, with a well-defined density front in the shelf-break area and high concentrations of surface chlorophyll-a (>5 mg m⁻³) on the shelf over the Itata terrace. During the winter sampling, highly variable though weakly upwelling-favorable winds were observed along with lower surface chlorophyll-a values (<2 mg m⁻³) on the shelf. In the oceanic area (>100 km from the coast), cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies were evident in the flow field during both periods, the former coinciding with higher chlorophyll-a contents (∼1 mg m⁻³) than in the surrounding waters. Also, a cold, chlorophyll-a rich filament was well defined during the spring sampling, extending from the shelf out to 350-400 km offshore. Along a cross-shelf transect, the micro- and meso-planktonic assemblages displayed higher coastal abundances during the spring cruise but secondary peaks appeared in the oceanic area during the winter cruise, coinciding with the distribution of the eddies. These results suggest that the mesoscale features in this region, in combination with upwelling, play a role in potentially increasing the biological productivity of the coastal transition zone off Concepción.     

Chronology of the high-pressure metamorphism of Norwegian garnet peridotites/pyroxenites

Eclogite facies mineral assemblages are variably preserved in mafic and ultramafic rocks within the Western Gneiss Region (WGR) of Norway. Mineralogical and microstructural data indicate that some Mg–Cr-rich, Alpine-type peridotites have had a complex metamorphic history. The metamorphic evolution of these rocks has been described in terms of a seven-stage evolutionary model; each stage is characterized by a specific mineral assemblage. Stages II and III both comprise garnet-bearing mineral assemblages. Garnet-bearing assemblages are also present in Fe–Ti-rich peridotites which commonly occur as layers in mafic complexes. Sm–Nd isotopic results are reported for mineral and whole rock samples from both of these types of peridotites and related rocks. The partitioning of Sm and Nd between coexisting garnet and clinopyroxene is used to assess chemical equilibrium. One sample of Mg–Cr-type peridotite shows non-disturbed partitioning of Sm and Nd between Stage II garnet and clinopyroxene pairs and yields a garnet–clinopyroxene–whole-rock date of 1703 ± 29 Ma (I= 0.51069, MSWD = 0.04). This is the best estimate for the age of the Stage II high-P assemblage. Other Stage II garnet–clinopyroxene pairs reflect later disturbance of the Sm–Nd system and yield dates in the range 1303 to 1040 Ma. These dates may not have any geological significance. Stage III garnet–clinopyroxene pairs typically have equilibrated Sm–Nd partitioning and two samples yield dates of 437 ± 58 and 511 ± 18 Ma. This suggests that equilibration of the Stage III high-P assemblage is related to the Caledonian orogeny and is more or less contemporaneous with high-P metamorphism of ‘country-rock’eclogites in the surrounding gneisses. The Sm–Nd mineral data for the Fe–Ti-rich garnet peridotites and for a superferrian eclogite, which occurs as a dyke within the Gurskebotn Mg–Cr-type peridotite, are consistent with a Palaeozoic high-P metamorphism. Finally a synoptic P–T–t path is proposed for the Mg–Cr-type peridotites which is consistent with the petrological and geochronological data.