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231.
J. M. Gregory J. A. Church G. J. Boer K. W. Dixon G. M. Flato D. R. Jackett J. A. Lowe S. P. O'Farrell E. Roeckner G. L. Russell R. J. Stouffer M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240
Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present
an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes
simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario
IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal
expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might
not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout
the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts
to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the
ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as
much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack
of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need
for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements.
Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001 相似文献
232.
We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal. 相似文献
233.
Stephen A. Royle 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》1997,18(1):89-98
Indonesia is one of the most rapidly developing nations in the world. One important component of its transformation is an industrialisation policy which sees its people utilised by transnational corporations as sources of cheap labour for export goods processing. This has both positive and negative outcomes. This paper explores these issues in a review of Indonesian development strategy with particular reference to Batam Island in Riau Province. 相似文献
234.
235.
236.
David A. Williams 《Planetary and Space Science》1992,40(12):1683-1693
We review the present understanding of interstellar CH+. We show that the essential chemistry was correctly identified by Bates and Spitzer in 1951. More recent work has been concerned with defining appropriate venues within which this chemistry can function efficiently. This process had led to a much fuller understanding of the nature of the interstellar medium. 相似文献
237.
The Middle Jurassic Kirkpatrick flood basalts and comagmatic Ferrar intrusions in the Transantarctic Mountains represent
a major pulse of tholeiitic magmatism related to early stages in the breakup of Gondwana. A record of the volcano-tectonic
events leading to formation of this continental flood-basalt province is provided by strata underlying and only slightly predating
the Kirkpatrick lavas. In the central Transantarctic Mountains, the lavas rest on widespread (≥7500 km2) tholeiitic pyroclastic deposits of the Prebble Formation. The Prebble Formation is dominated by lahar deposits and is an
unusual example of a regionally developed basaltic lahar field. Related, partly fault-controlled pyroclastic intrusions cut
underlying strata, and vents are represented by the preserved flanks of two small tephra cones associated with a volcanic
neck. Lahar and air-fall deposits typically contain 50–60% accidental lithic fragments and sand grains derived from underlying
Triassic – Lower Jurassic strata in the upper part of the Beacon Supergroup. Juvenile basaltic ash and fine lapilli consist
of nonvesicular to scoriaceous tachylite, sideromelane, and palagonite, and have characteristics indicating derivation from
hydrovolcanic eruptions. The abundance of accidental debris from underlying Beacon strata points to explosive phreatomagmatic
interaction of basaltic magma with wet sediment and groundwater, which appears to have occurred in particular where rising
magma intersected upper Beacon sand aquifers. Composite clasts in the lahar deposits exhibit complex peperitic textures formed
during fine-scale intermixing of basaltic magma with wet sand and record steps in subsurface fuel-coolant interactions leading
to explosive eruption.
The widespread, sustained phreatomagmatic activity is inferred to have occurred in a groundwater-rich topographic basin linked
to an evolving Jurassic rift zone in the Transantarctic Mountains. Coeval basaltic phreatomagmatic deposits of the Mawson
and Exposure Hill Formations, which underlie exposures of the Kirkpatrick Basalt up to 1500 km to the north along strike in
Victoria Land, appear to represent other parts of a regional, extension-related Middle Jurassic phreatomagmatic province which
developed immediately prior to rapid outpouring of the flood basalts. This is consistent with models which assign an important
role to lithospheric stretching in the generation of flood-basalt provinces.
Received: 28 August 1995 / Accepted: 18 April 1996 相似文献
238.
Robe's restricted three-body problem is reanalyzed with a view to incorporate a new assumption, namely that the configuration of the fluid body is that described by an hydrostatic equilibrium figure (Roche's ellipsoid). In the concomitant gravitational field a full treatment of the buoyancy force is given. The pertinent equations of motion are derived, the linear stability of the equilibrium solution is studied and the connection between the effect of the buoyancy forces and a perturbation of the Coriolis force is pointed out. 相似文献
239.
The restricted problem of 2 + 2 bodies when one of the infinitesimal masses is further acted upon by the light pressure of the two primaries, is considered. The stationary solutions of this problem are found out. A short discussion is devoted to the stability of these solutions. 相似文献
240.
We have studied the influence of the magnetic helicity on solar particle propagation using the IMF data observed by the HELIOS spacecraft in the range 0.31–0.95 AU, during eight solar proton events. For this, we have derived power and helicity spectra of the turbulence of the magnetic field during the time of the events. These are used to compute the particle pitch-angle scattering coefficients according to the quasi-linear theory (QLT) treatment of particle propagation in turbulent magnetic fields. The results show that in all the cases the helicity effects are negligible and the particle's mean free paths deduced from the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients are the same regardless of whether or not helicity effects are included in the calculations. The computed mean free paths are quite different in each case.Deceased 10 April, 1995. 相似文献