Prediction of influence of global warming on biological cycle and carbon balance in forest ecosystems of the Volga River Basin

The gradient (ordination) analysis was used to find the tendencies and the rate of changes in discrete parameters of the cycle of forest phytomasses accompanying a growing thermoarid climatic trend. The prognostic estimates of biotic regulation of the carbon cycle by forest biogeocenoses according to the HadCM3 (version A2) climatic scenarios, describing the most powerful coming global warming, are presented.     

Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

Metadolerite age relationships in the Dalradian of northwest Donegal,Ireland and their orogenic significance

The structural relationships of several intrusive sheets belonging to the extensive metadolerite suite of the Appin (lower) Dalradian rocks of the Creeslough area, northwest Donegal, Ireland have been examined. It is concluded that, relative to the regional chronology of deformation of the enclosing metasediments, sheet emplacement has occurred: pre-D2; syn-D2; between D2 and D3; and syn-D3. The height of activity came in the post-D2, pre-D3 interval and coincided with the peak of regional metamorphism in the area. These relationships in Donegal are compared with those of the pretectonic basic rocks of the southwest Highlands and models are discussed.     

On the eigenvalues of kinematic α-effect dynamos

The kinematic α-effect dynamo problem is investigated in the case of an exterior perfect conductor. It is shown that certain approximate symmetries discovered in the numerical analysis of ROBERTS (1972) are exact for this case. As an illustration, an exact solution is given in a cylindrical geometry, where the equations can be written in terms of one variable. The implications for the earth's dynamo are discussed.     

A Note on the Regularization of the Restricted Three-body Problem

The requirement that near a singular point of the equations of motion the power series expansions of the old variables in terms of the new ones start with second order terms leads to the transformation z = sin²1/2w related to that of THIELE -BURRAU . Using this new transformation, a derivation of the regularized equations of motion is given. The original as well as the regularized equations of motion are of interest, for example, for calculating the initial values of the orbital elements for SCHWARZSCHILD's periodic solutions (LEIMANIS and OLUND 1972).     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Numerical Modeling of the Observed Wiechert Seismograph Magnification

—The paper presents results of experiments designed to measure the actual dynamic magnification of the Wiechert 1000 kg horizontal seismometer when excited by seismic waves. This is accomplished by comparing 51 digital records of seismic events recorded by the Wiechert and a well calibrated reference seismometer. The results obtained indicate that the magnification of the Wiechert seismometer is influenced by the interaction of its mass and frame, especially for high frequencies. This interaction has been modeled by considering a system of two coupled pendulums, yielding a theoretical dynamic magnification curve which exhibits main features of the observed magnification. The dis crepancy between the nominal and the actual response of the Wiechert seismograph may lead to errors in studies involving spectral analyses of recorded seismograms, and to overestimation of local earth quake magnitudes.     

Spectrophotometric Variability of Mira

Data from the Pulkovo spectrophotometric data base on the absolute quasimonochromatic fluxes from oCet in the 320–1080 nm range are used to determine the physical parameters of this star in different phases of its light curve. The continuum emission layer is found to expand between the phases of the cycle corresponding to the rising and falling branches of the light curve. The average expansion velocity is 32 km/s. By the time the star’s brightness has fallen by roughly three magnitudes, its radius has increased by almost a factor of three. Over this same time the temperature of the layer has fallen from 3000 K to 2200 K. For this expansion velocity, the calculated mass rate loss is ⊙ M /year.__________Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 175–189 (May 2005).     

Seismic Ground Motion Expected for the Eastern District of Naples

The seismic ground motion of a test area in the eastern district of Naples is computed with a hybrid technique based on the mode summation and the finite difference methods. This technique allows us the realistic modelling of source and propagation effects, including local soil conditions. In the modelling, we consider the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, a good example of strong shaking for the area of Naples, which is located about 90 km from the epicenter.The detailed geological setting is reconstructed from a large number of drillings. The sub-soil is mainly formed by alluvial (ash, stratified sand and peat) and pyroclastic materials overlying a pyroclastic rock (yellow neapolitan tuff), representing the neapolitan bedrock. The detailed information available on mechanical properties of the sub-soil and its geometry warrants the application of the sophisticated hybrid technique.As expected, the sedimentary cover causes an increase of the signal's amplitudes and duration. If thin peat layers are present, the amplification effects are reduced, and the peak ground accelerations are similar to those observed for the bedrock model. This can be explained by the backscattering of wave energy at such layers, that tend to seismically decouple the upper from the lower part of the structure.For SH-waves, the influence of the variations of the S-wave velocities on the spectral amplification is studied, by considering locally measured velocities and values determined from near-by down-hole measurements. The comparison between the computed spectral amplifications confirms the key role of an accurate determination of the seismic velocities of the different layers.The comparison performed between a realistic 2-D seismic response and a standard 1-D response, based on the vertical propagation of waves in a plane layered structure, shows considerable difference, from which it is evident that serious caution must be taken in the modelling of expected ground motion at a specific site.