区域洪涝灾害损失评估及预测的CART模型研究——以湖南省为例

选择湖南省14个地级市(州)1995—2009年4—9月降水量、降水量的距平百分率、最高水位值以及对应年份的年末耕地面积、农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、人口密度、产值密度8类指标作为自变量,损失率为因变量,构建指标体系,利用分类与回归树模型逐级提取出了造成洪涝灾害损失的主要因子,依次为农作物受灾面积、受灾人口、7月降水量、6月降水距平百分率、9月降水量以及人口密度。同时确定了影响阈值,当农作物受灾面积不超过56.8×103hm2,且受灾人口少于158.2万人时,预测损失级别为1,属于微灾;而农作物受灾面积超过81.1×103hm2,7月降水量少于343 mm,6月降水距平百分率大于94.5%时,预测损失级别为5,属极重灾。CART模型应用简单、结果客观,为洪涝灾害损失评估及预测开辟了一条新途径。     

海冰离散元模型的研究回顾及展望

为描述极区及副极区海冰在不同尺度下的离散分布特性,以及海冰与海洋结构相互作用过程中的破碎性能,海冰的离散单元模型从上世纪80年代发展起来并不断完善。本文将海冰离散单元模型分为地球物理尺度( ~100km)、浮冰块尺度(10m ~ 10km)和海洋结构尺度(1m ~ 100m)等三种不同尺度,讨论了不同尺度下海冰的离散分布规律或海冰由连续状态向离散状态转化的动力过程。通过对块体、圆盘和颗粒不同形态的海冰离散单元模型的介绍,对其在极区海冰的动力特性、海冰重叠堆积及其与波浪的作用过程、海冰与海洋结构的相互作用中的应用进行了分析,对海冰强度的尺度效应进行了讨论。最后,讨论了海冰离散单元模型中存在的问题和重点研究内容。     

差分干涉测量黄河三角洲天然湿地水位变化研究

利用合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术监测湿地水位变化,对湿地保护、恢复和重建具有非常重要的意义.利用C波段VV极化和L波段HH极化合成孔径雷达影像,结合同步野外测量和调查工作,在各季节不同时间间隔下,研究不同湿地类型的后向散射特性差异和干涉相干性差异;在对影响干涉相干性的因素进行评价的基础上,建立差分干涉测量湿地水位变化监测的函数模型,利用获取的合成孔径雷达影像,分析黄河三角洲的天然湿地水位变化.研究结果表明,利用差分干涉测量技术不仅可以获取湿地水位变化,而且还能提供水位变化的空间细节,这是本技术最突出的特色.     

Distribution of the Molecular Gas Around SN 1572

The early-stage structure and evolution of a supernova remnant (SNR) depends largely on its ambient interstellar medium, so the interstellar medium becomes the valid probe for investigating the evolution of SNRs. We have observed the ¹²CO (J = 1 − 0) line emission around the remnant of SN 1572 with the 13.7m millimeter-wave telescope at the Qinghai Station of PMO, in order to investigate the distribution of the CO molecular gas around SN 1572 and provide some observational basis for studying the relationship of SN 1572 with its ambient molecular gas and the evolution of this SNR. The observed result indicates that the molecular gas in the velocity range of V_LSR = −69∼ −58 km/s is associated with SN 1572, and this velocity component comes from a large-scale molecular cloud. The molecular gas is distributed along the periphery of the radio shell, continually but not uniformly, and forms a semi-closed molecular shell around the SNR. The enhanced emission exists in its whole eastern half, especially the CO emission is strongest on the northeastern edge. At the emission peak position, the spectral line exhibits a broadened velocity feature (>5 km/s). Combining with available observations in the optical, infrared, X-ray and other wavebands, it is demonstrated that the fast shock wave and ejecta are expanding into the molecular gas on the northeastern edge, and interacting with the dense gas. This interaction will have an important influence on the future evolution of SN 1572.     

The Chinese Spectral Radioheliograph—CSRH

A new Chinese radioheliograph project (CSRH) at multiple frequencies in the decimetric to centimeter wave range with ～100 antennas of 2–5 m is proposed. A prototype study of 2-element interferometer was tested for overall design. The site survey for the CSRH array is carried out and a radio quiet region in Inner Mongolia of China appears promising. As a first step, the CSRH in decimetric wave range with 40 antennas of 4.5 m is proposed. The progress about the project is introduced.     

Probability distributions for carbon emissions and atmospheric response

Probability distributions for carbon burning, atmospheric CO₂, and global average temperature are produced by time series calibration of models of utility optimization and carbon and heat balance using log-linear production functions. Population growth is used to calibrate a logistically evolving index of development that influences production efficiency. Energy production efficiency also includes a coefficient that decreases linearly with decreasing carbon intensity of energy production. This carbon intensity is a piecewise linear function of fossil carbon depletion. That function is calibrated against historical data and extrapolated by sampling a set of hypotheses about the impact on the carbon intensity of energy production of depleting fluid fossil fuel resources and increasing cumulative carbon emissions. Atmospheric carbon balance is determined by a first order differential equation with carbon use rates and cumulative carbon use as drivers. Atmospheric CO₂ is a driver in a similar heat balance. Periodic corrections are included where required to make residuals between data and model results indistinguishable from independently and identically distributed normal distributions according to statistical tests on finite Fourier power spectrum amplitudes and nearest neighbor correlations. Asymptotic approach to a sustainable non-fossil energy production is followed for a global disaggregation into a tropical/developing and temperate/more-developed region. The increase in the uncertainty of global average temperature increases nearly quadratically with the increase in the temperature from the present through the next two centuries.     

气象因素异常指数对我国典型工业产业的影响研究

为了研究气象因素对我国典型工业产业的影响状况,通过整理1999-2006年每日4个时次的气象因素如气温、风速、相对湿度、气压和降水等数据,构造了气象异常值和异常度指数,并收集了同时期我国6个典型的工业产业的销售收入、资本投入和劳动力投入等月份数据,利用科布-道格拉斯(Cobb-Douglas)生产函数模型,分析了这些气象异常指数对我国典型工业产业的影响及弹性,做了对比分析,得到了有启示意义的结论,最后指出了研究的不足及未来进一步研究的方向.     

本溪53 a降水特征与水资源分析

利用本溪1953--2005年月平均气温、降水量资料,依据高桥浩一郎的陆面实际蒸发经验公式,计算出陆面蒸发、蒸发系数和可利用降水系数,得出本溪水资源的变化特征与降水变化特征基本相似。降水量年际变化大,季节分配不均,总体呈下降趋势;春季蒸发损失量大,是易出现干旱的季节;提出缓解和解决水资源缺乏的建议,人工影响天气增加降水量、开源节流节约用水、水污染治理和水土流失控制。     

2008年河南黄淮地区暴雨过程个例分析

利用常规气象资料和NCEP资料对2008年7月22日河南黄淮地区的暴雨过程进行了分析.结果表明:这次过程是在500 hPa槽前西南气流引导下,高低空急流耦合区内西南涡沿切变线移出,弱冷空气侵入暖倒槽触发不稳定能量释放造成的.垂直螺旋度计算结果显示:中低层正垂直螺旋度中心与降水落区有很好的对应关系,大暴雨中心位于正垂直螺旋度中心附近.湿位涡演变分析发现,这次过程有"干侵入"发生,暴雨区中低层对流不稳定和对称不稳定共存,有利于降水增幅.水汽条件分析表明:这次过程的水汽源地在孟加拉湾和南海,主要是低层和近地层的水汽辐合.     

一次飑线天气过程的综合分析

利用常规观测资料和自动气象站资料、雷达回波图,从天气学、不稳定层结及水汽条件和雷达回波特征等方面综合分析了2006年6月25日影响洛阳的一次飑线天气过程的活动规律和物理成因.分析表明:此次较强的飑线天气过程是在高空冷涡后部西北气流的天气尺度形势下出现的,中尺度对流系统飑线以后续线型为主的型式形成.高空弱冷空气的入侵加剧了层结的不稳定性.弓形或带状回波、强(55 dBz以上)又高(或高度突降)的雷达反射率因子、逆风区、入流缺口、强的风速辐合带、高VIL值(50 kg·m-2以上)或VIL值突变及冰雹指数等雷达回波特征,对此类强对流天气的发生有较好的预警作用.