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351.
    
Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961–1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.  相似文献   
352.
We have used NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data and a Northern Hemisphere snow cover data set to analyze changes in freezing level heights and snow cover for the past three to five decades. All the major continental mountain chains exhibit upward shifts in the height of the freezing level surface. The pattern of these changes is generally consistent with changes in snow cover, both over the course of the year and spatially. We examined different free-air temperature parameters (dry bulb temperature, virtual temperature, and 700–500 hPa thickness) using the Reanalysis grid point valueslocated over the different mountain areas as defined in this study. The different trend values were in reasonably good agreement with each other, particularly over the second half of the record.Freezing level changes in the American Cordillera are strongly modulated by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the freezing level heights (FLH) respond to both interannual and decadal-scale change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The 0.5 °C increase in SST recorded in the tropical Pacific since the 1950s accounts for approximately half of the increase in FLH in tropical and subtropical latitudes of the Cordilleran region during that same time.  相似文献   
353.
This paper presents some findings of an investigation into the dynamic behaviour of offshore gravity platforms excited by waves. Results obtained from a finite element model are presented in the form of dynamic magnification factor curves for two structures typical of current concrete platform designs. In order to facilitate interpretation of these results a simple two degree of freedom model is developed and the equivalent results presented. These are found to be very similar to those obtained from the more detailed idealization, and it is therefore concluded that the principal mechanisms involved in the dynamic behaviour of offshore gravity structures are adequately represented in the simple model. Several useful insights into this behaviour are then achieved by closer examination of the two degree of freedom configuration.  相似文献   
354.
Median filters may be used with seismic data to attenuate coherent wavefields. An example is the attenuation of the downgoing wavefield in VSP data processing. The filter is applied across the traces in the ‘direction’ of the wavefield. The final result is given by subtracting the filtered version of the record from the original record. This method of median filtering may be called ‘median filtering operated in subtraction’. The method may be extended by automatically estimating the slowness of coherent wavefields on a record. The filter is then applied in a time- and-space varying manner across the record on the basis of the slowness values at each point on the record. Median filters are non-linear and hence their behaviour is more difficult to determine than linear filters. However, there are a number of methods that may be used to analyse median filter behaviour: (1) pseudo-transfer functions to specific time series; (2) the response of median filters to simple seismic models; and (3) the response of median filters to steps that simulate terminating wavefields, such as faults on stacked data. These simple methods provide an intuitive insight into the behaviour of these filters, as well as providing a semiquantitative measurement of performance. The performance degradation of median filters in the presence of trace-to-trace variations in amplitude is shown to be similar to that of linear filters. The performance of median filters (in terms of signal distortion) applied obliquely across a record may be improved by low-pass filtering (in the t-dimension). The response of median filters to steps is shown to be affected by background noise levels. The distortion of steps introduced by median filters approaches the distortion of steps introduced by the corresponding linear filter for high levels of noise.  相似文献   
355.
Recognition of the eastern (Avalonian) margin of the northern Appalachian orogen as a Late Precambrian microcontinental arc terrane, rather than the opposing passive margin of the Proto-Atlantic (Iapetus) Ocean to that of eastern Laurentia, constituted a fundamental advance in Appalachian geology that profoundly influenced subsequent models for the orogen's plate tectonic evolution. This advance was first clearly articulated by Nick Rast and his students in 1976, who, by correlating rocks of the Avalon Platform with those of the British Midlands, established the Avalonian volcanic belt as a Japan-like microcontinent. Contrary to contemporary views of the Avalon Platform, which favored an extensional, Basin and Range-like setting for its volcanism, Rast argued on the basis of this correlation that the association of Avalonian volcanism with compressional orogeny, widespread calc-alkaline plutonism and, in Angelsey, with blueschists and ophiolitic rocks, indicated a convergent plate margin setting. Rast further proposed that the Avalonian volcanic belt was ensialic, and was bordered to the northwest and southeast by Precambrian oceanic domains. Contemporary reconstructions of the Avalonian and Cadomian belts as fragments of a Cordilleran-like accretionary orogen that developed along an active margin of Neoproterozoic Gondwana owe their origin to these early ideas and, while far removed from the tectonic model that Rast envisaged, are a direct heritage of his recognition of the Avalonian volcanic belt as a microcontinental arc terrane.  相似文献   
356.
New geochemical and isotopic data for post-collisional Early Eocene and Late Miocene adakitic rocks from the eastern part of the Sakarya Zone, Turkey, indicate that slab and lower crustal melting, respectively, played key roles in the petrogenesis of these rocks. The Early Eocene Yoncal?k dacite (54.4 Ma) exhibits high Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios, low Y and HREE concentrations, moderate Mg# (44–65), and relatively high εNd and low ISr values, similar to adakites formed by slab melting associated with subduction. Geochemical composition of the Yoncal?k dacite cannot be explained by simple crystal fractionation and/or crustal contamination of andesitic parent magma, but is consistent with the participation of different proportions of melts derived from subducted basalt and sediments. Sr/Y correlates horizontally with Rb/Y, and Pb/Nd correlates vertically with Nd isotopic composition, indicating that Sr and Pb budgets are strongly controlled by melt addition from the subducting slab, whereas positive correlations between Th/Nd and Pb/Nd, and Rb/Y and Nb/Y point to some contribution of sediment melt. In addition to low concentrations of heavy rare earth elements (~2–3 times chondrite), a systematic decrease in their concentrations and Nb/Ta ratios with increasing SiO2 contents suggests that slab partial melting occurred in the garnet stability field and that these elements were mobilized by fluid flux. These geochemical and isotopic signatures are best explained by slab breakoff and fusion shortly after the initiation of collision. Although the Late Micone Tavda?? rhyolite (8.75 Ma) has some geochemical features identical to adakites, such as high Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios, low Y and HREE concentrations, other requirements, such as sodic andesite and/or dacite with relatively high MgO and Mg# (>50), relatively high Ni and Cr, low K2O/Na2O (<0.4), high Sr (>400 ppm), for slab-derived adakites are not provided. It is sodic in composition and shows no traces of fractionation from dacitic parent magma. Low Nd and high Sr isotope ratios suggest derivation by partial fusion of calc-alkaline, juvenile crust with high Sr/Y and La/Yb ratios.  相似文献   
357.
This paper reviews the events leading to the failure of Teton Dam in Idaho on June 5, 1976 and the investigations, conducted over a period of about eight years, to determine the cause of the failure. Conclusions are presented regarding the probable trigger mechanisms which initiated the failure, the mechanics of failure and the significant lessons concerning earth dam design and construction resulting from the investigations.  相似文献   
358.
359.
En echelon crack-arrays in potash salt rock   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Summary There are two types of fracture patterns in the yield pillars of the potash mines of Saskatchewan. The individual members of both patterns are tensile (extension) fractures that propagate parallel with the maximum principal stress trajectory (perpendicular to the minimum principal stress). The difference between the two patterns lies in the arrangement of the member fractures. In theen echelon tensile crack-array, the macroscopic fracture consists of individual tensile cracks that are slightly offset from each other. They have only a small overlap and the child crack seems to form randomly on either side of its parent. Consequently, the en echelon tensile crack-array inherits the axial orientation of its members. In contrast, the tensile cracks of anen echelon shear crack-array, have a larger overlap and their lateral displacement from each other is biased in one direction. Therefore, the crack-array is no longer axial but inclined 20–25 degrees from the maximum principal stress direction. With increasing stress, the shear crack-array often collapses, forming theenvelope orhourglass structures of the potash mines.  相似文献   
360.
International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR).  相似文献   
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