Oil- and gas-resource assessment in certain South American Basins—An application of ARDS (Ver. 5.0) to complex exploration and discovery histories

The modified Arps-Roberts Discovery Process Modeling System [ARDS (Ver. 4.01)] has recently been upgraded [ARDS (Ver. 5.0)] and applied to a wide variety of field discovery and wildcat drilling data with differing characteristics. ARDS is designed to forecast the number and sizes of undiscovered fields in an exploration play or basin by using historical drilling and discovery data. Fields used as input may be grown or ungrown. Two models for field growth—one offshore and the other onshore—have been implemented (Schuenemeyer and Drew, 1996). Uncertainty attributable to field growth is estimated via simulation. This upgrade of ARDS has been designed to handle situations when the data cannot be partitioned into homogeneous regions, but where estimation of the number of remaining oil and gas fields is still meaningful. In this upgrade of ARDS, many restrictions, which include those on the number of fields and wildcat wells required to forecast the size distribution of the oil and gas fields that remain to be discovered in an exploration play, a basin, or other target area, have been removed. In addition, flexibility has been gained by reforming the criteria for convergence of the model. In all, 32 basins and subbasins in South America were examined, 18 of which had sufficient data to be amenable to forecasting the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources directly by using the Petroconsultants Inc. (1993) field discovery and wildcat drilling data. Overall, ARDS (Ver. 5.0) performed well in estimating the field-size distribution of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the 18 basins and subbasins. The aggregate volume of undiscovered petroleum resources was characterized by using histograms of the distribution of resources and the following five statistics: the mean, the 80% trimmed mean, and the 10,50 (median), and 90 quantiles. More than 38 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in fields that contain more than one million BOE individually were forecast as remaining to be discovered. The largest basin, the Campos (Brazil), is forecast to contain nearly 10 billion BOE undiscovered resources. The East Venezuela Basin (excluding the Furrial Trend) is forecast to contain about 8 billion BOE; the Austral-Magallanes Basin (Argentina and Chile), about 7 billion BOE; and the Napo (Colombia and Ecuador) and the Neuquen (Argentina) Basins, between 3 billion and 4 billion BOE. A subset of these basins that illustrate the increased flexibility of ARDS are discussed.     

Hydrogeomorphic control on tree growth responses in the Elton area of the Cheshire Saltfield, UK

Increment cores were sampled from oak (Quercus robur) and ash (Fraxinus excelsior) growing at Elton, an area of the Cheshire Saltfield that has experienced significant subsidence and damage to the natural and built environments in the latter part of the twentieth century. Ring-width measurements for Elton trees permitted the construction of one main site chronology (Elton) and four sub chronologies (Elton A, Elton B, Elton C, Elton ASH). Ring-width difference between these and a control chronology identified periods of sustained growth reduction in oak trees commencing in AD 1859/1861, 1886 and 1934. Growth reductions after 1934 are related to watertable draw down caused by brine pumping from a concentration of nine boreholes at Elton, up to 2 km from tree sampling locations. Growth reductions in 1859/1861 and 1886 are likely to be the result of earlier phases of brine pumping in the Wheelock Valley, up to 5 km to the east of Elton, and these reductions correlate well with historic records of subsidence and pumping activity. Cessation of pumping in 1977 led to a lagged growth recovery in oak trees between 1981 and 1986, indicating that an artificial drought had been imposed on the Elton area for a period in excess off 100-y. This research demonstrates a hydrological separation of surface water and groundwater in an area where salt beds are overlain by till and that ring-width records of Q. robur can be used to reconstruct watertable variability and also the spatial impact of solution mining.     

A battle on two fronts: competitive urges 'inside' Atlanta

This paper argues that intra –regional competition is as important as intra –regional in the shaping of an urban region. Recent concentration on urban promotion within the discipline places an emphasis on competition between cities that should be counterbalanced by stressing the degree of competition between cities and their suburban peripheries. Using the case of Atlanta, Georgia, and in particular its Vision 2020 initiative, the paper explores how regionalist approaches can easily unravel due to continued rivalries from individual constituents. Placing its theoretical grounding within David Harvey's notion of 'structural coherence', the paper argues that regional policies within a capitalist environment of uneven development tend towards only temporary solutions.     

Relations Between Igneous and Metamorphic Rock Fracture Patterns and Groundwater Yield from the Variography of Water–Well Yields—Pinardville Quadrangle,New Hampshire

Exploratory variography was used to examine the spatial continuity of water–well yields in the Pinardville 7 Minute Quadrangle in southern New Hampshire and to link the variography to the characteristics of the fractured igneous and metamorphic rocks within the aquifer system. In addition to the analyses of variograms computed by using data from 939 wells, analyses were performed on subsets of the data that were stratified according to the level of yield and to five rock types. The stratification according to yield was defined by using the industry standard of a high-yield well that produces 40 gallons per minute or more. The stratification of the low-yield wells by rock type was defined by using the classification on the bedrock map for the State of New Hampshire. Although the variability is high in the low-yield wells, as indicated by the large nugget value, overall continuity ranges to 6000 feet in the fracture zones in which these wells have been drilled. This continuity is dominant in the northwesterly direction, as indicated by the directional variography. This result is consistent with the general trend in the larger tectonic configuration of the region. A lack of spatial correlation for 81 high-yield wells is consistent with the geologic interpretation that these wells occur in locally determined configurations of sheeting and steeply dipping fractures. Yield data in only three of the five rock types were sufficient for variography. Within these three, the dominant direction of the correlation structure ranged from northwesterly for the Massabesic Gneiss Complex to northeasterly for the Rangeley Formation to northerly for the Spaulding Granite, where the signature of the continuity in the low-yield wells is predominately attributed to the fracture system.     

High spatial resolution Galactic 3D extinction mapping with IPHAS

We present an algorithm (MEAD, for 'Mapping Extinction Against Distance') which will determine intrinsic  ( r '− i ')  colour, extinction, and distance for early-A to K4 stars extracted from the IPHAS   r '/ i '/Hα  photometric data base. These data can be binned up to map extinction in three dimensions across the northern Galactic plane. The large size of the IPHAS data base (∼200 million unique objects), the accuracy of the digital photometry it contains and its faint limiting magnitude  ( r '∼ 20)  allow extinction to be mapped with fine angular (∼10 arcmin) and distance (∼ 0.1 kpc) resolution to distances of up to 10 kpc, outside the solar circle. High reddening within the solar circle on occasion brings this range down to ∼2 kpc. The resolution achieved, both in angle and depth, greatly exceeds that of previous empirical 3D extinction maps, enabling the structure of the Galactic Plane to be studied in increased detail. MEAD accounts for the effect of the survey magnitude limits, photometric errors, unresolved interstellar medium (ISM) substructure and binarity. The impact of metallicity variations, within the range typical of the Galactic disc is small. The accuracy and reliability of MEAD are tested through the use of simulated photometry created with Monte Carlo sampling techniques. The success of this algorithm is demonstrated on a selection of fields and the results are compared to the literature.