The need for national deep decarbonization pathways for effective climate policy

Constraining global average temperatures to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels will probably require global energy system emissions to be halved by 2050 and complete decarbonization by 2100. In the nationally orientated climate policy framework codified under the Paris Agreement, each nation must decide the scale and method of their emissions reduction contribution while remaining consistent with the global carbon budget. This policy process will require engagement amongst a wide range of stakeholders who have very different visions for the physical implementation of deep decarbonization. The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) has developed a methodology, building on the energy, climate and economics literature, to structure these debates based on the following principles: country-scale analysis to capture specific physical, economic and political circumstances to maximize policy relevance, a long-term perspective to harmonize short-term decisions with the long-term objective and detailed sectoral analysis with transparent representation of emissions drivers through a common accounting framework or ‘dashboard’. These principles are operationalized in the creation of deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs), which involve technically detailed, sector-by-sector maps of each country’s decarbonization transition, backcasting feasible pathways from 2050 end points. This article shows how the sixteen DDPP country teams, covering 74% of global energy system emissions, used this method to collectively restrain emissions to a level consistent with the 2 °C target while maintaining development aspirations and reflecting national circumstances, mainly through efficiency, decarbonization of energy carriers (e.g. electricity, hydrogen, biofuels and synthetic gas) and switching to these carriers. The cross-cutting analysis of country scenarios reveals important enabling conditions for the transformation, pertaining to technology research and development, investment, trade and global and national policies.

Policy relevance

In the nation-focused global climate policy framework codified in the Paris Agreement, the purpose of the DDPP and DDPs is to provide a common method by which global and national governments, business, civil society and researchers in each country can communicate, compare and debate differing concrete visions for deep decarbonization in order to underpin the necessary societal and political consensus to design and implement short-term policy packages that are consistent with long-term global decarbonization.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

Dating lava flows of tropical volcanoes by means of spatial modeling of vegetation recovery

The age of past lava flows is crucial information for evaluating the hazards and risks posed by effusive volcanoes, but traditional dating methods are expensive and time‐consuming. This study proposes an alternative statistical dating method based on remote sensing observations of tropical volcanoes by exploiting the relationship between lava flow age and vegetation cover. First, the factors controlling vegetation density on lava flows, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were investigated. These factors were then integrated into pixel‐based multi‐variable regression models of lava flow age to derive lava flow age maps. The method was tested at a pixel scale on three tropical African volcanoes with considerable recent effusive activity: Nyamuragira (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mt Cameroon (Cameroon) and Karthala (the Comoros). Due to different climatic and topographic conditions, the parameters of the spatial modeling are volcano‐specific. Validation suggests that the obtained statistical models are robust and can thus be applied for estimating the age of unmodified undated lava flow surfaces for these volcanoes. When the models are applied to fully vegetated lava flows, the results should be interpreted with caution due to the saturation of NDVI. In order to improve the accuracy of the models, when available, spatial data on temperature and precipitation should be included to directly represent climatic variation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development and Evaluation of Geostatistical Methods for Non-Euclidean-Based Spatial Covariance Matrices

Mathematical Geosciences - Customary and routine practice of geostatistical modeling assumes that inter-point distances are a Euclidean metric (i.e., as the crow flies) when characterizing spatial...     

Under the surface: Pressure-induced planetary-scale waves,volcanic lightning,and gaseous clouds caused by the submarine eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano

We present a narrative of the eruptive events culminating in the cataclysmic January 15, 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano by synthesizing diverse preliminary seismic, volcanological, sound wave, and lightning data available within the first few weeks after the eruption occurred. The first hour of eruptive activity produced fast-propagating tsunami waves, long-period seismic waves, loud audible sound waves, infrasonic waves, exceptionally intense volcanic lightning and an unsteady volcanic plume that transiently reached—at 58 ?km—the Earth's mesosphere. Energetic seismic signals were recorded worldwide and the globally stacked seismogram showed episodic seismic events within the most intense periods of phreatoplinian activity, and they correlated well with the infrasound pressure waveform recorded in Fiji. Gravity wave signals were strong enough to be observed over the entire planet in just the first few hours, with some circling the Earth multiple times subsequently. These large-amplitude, long-wavelength atmospheric disturbances come from the Earth's atmosphere being forced by the magmatic mixture of tephra, melt and gasses emitted by the unsteady but quasi-continuous eruption from 0402±1–1800 UTC on January 15, 2022. Atmospheric forcing lasted much longer than rupturing from large earthquakes recorded on modern instruments, producing a type of shock wave that originated from the interaction between compressed air and ambient (wavy) sea surface. This scenario differs from conventional ideas of earthquake slip, landslides, or caldera collapse-generated tsunami waves because of the enormous (～1000x) volumetric change due to the supercritical nature of volatiles associated with the hot, volatile-rich phreatoplinian plume. The time series of plume altitude can be translated to volumetric discharge and mass flow rate. For an eruption duration of ～12 ?h, the eruptive volume and mass are estimated at 1.9 ?km³ and ～2 900 ?Tg, respectively, corresponding to a VEI of 5–6 for this event. The high frequency and intensity of lightning was enhanced by the production of fine ash due to magma—seawater interaction with concomitant high charge per unit mass and the high pre-eruptive concentration of dissolved volatiles. Analysis of lightning flash frequencies provides a rapid metric for plume activity and eruption magnitude. Many aspects of this eruption await further investigation by multidisciplinary teams. It represents a unique opportunity for fundamental research regarding the complex, non-linear behavior of high energetic volcanic eruptions and attendant phenomena, with critical implications for hazard mitigation, volcano forecasting, and first-response efforts in future disasters.     

Die seismische Aktivität in Venezuela im Zusammenhang mit den wichtigsten tektonischen Bruchzonen

Zusammenfassung Einem kurzen Überblick über die geologischen und tektonischen Zusammenhänge in den wichtigsten venezolanischen Erdbebengebieten folgt eine standardisierte Betrachtung der Einzelbeben, deren Magnitude gleich oder größer als 5,5 war. Die aus makroseismischer Intensität und/oder Magnitude (Richter) berechnete, ausgelöste Erdbebenenergie, summiert über 440 Jahre bekannter Erdbebengeschichte Venezuelas, wurde graphisch dargestellt. Die Neigung der so erhaltenen Energietreppen ist ein Maß für die Seismizität, i.e. der Vertikalabstand der Parallelen zwischen Maxima und Minima ist ein Maß für die größtmögliche Magnitude eines Erdbebens aus der entsprechenden Herdregion, und aus den zeitlichen Abständen der Energietreppen lassen sich Schlüsse ziehen über Erdbebenhäufigkeit bzw. Erdbebenerwartung. Schließlich wurde für alle Beben das der ausgelösten seismischen Energie unter gegebenen Voraussetzungen entsprechendeErdbebenvolumen berechnet, an die Erdoberfläche projiziert und als Epizentralgebiete in einer Isoseistenkarte dargestellt, in welchen Wellenbewegungen und Krustendeformationen zu erwarten sind. Besonders Brucherscheinungen sollten dann sichtbar sein, wenn eine der Oberflächen des Volumens mit der Erdoberfläche zusammenfällt. Mittels einer für alle größeren venezolanischen Erdbeben aus makroseismischen Beobachtungen berechneten Intensitäts-Abklingkonstanten c wurde schließlich eine Isoseistenkarte für Venezuela entworfen, in welcher mögliche Überlagerungen aus allen seismischen Zonen des Landes berücksichtigt wurden. Diese Karte kann als Grundlage für die Planung erdbebensicherer Bauten und für geotektonische Zwecke benutzt werden.

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A brief synopsis of the geological and tectonical context of the most important Venezuelan earthquake regions is followed by a standardized treatment of the single earthquakes with magnitudes greater then 5,5. From intensity and/or magnitude (Richter), the earthquake energy released was calculated, added up for the 440 years of known earthquake history of Venezuela, and presented in graphs. The slope of such cumulative energy histogram is a measure of the seismicity, i.e. the distance between the two parallel lines, which connect the maxima and the minima, gives an idea of the possible maximum magnitude in each region; from the time intervals of the steps one may draw conclusions concerning earthquake frequency and earthquake expectation. Finally the earthquake volume for each single quake, which under given conditions corresponds to the energy released, was calculated, its surfaces were projected on the earth's surface and mapped as epicentral regions of an isoseismal map, in which wave motion and crustal deformations may be expected. Special fracture features should be visible where one of the surfaces of the volume intersects the earth's surface. By means of an intensity decay constant c, which was determined from macroseismic observations for each greater earthquake, the isoseismal map for Venezuela was drawn, in which possible intensity superpositions of all seismic regions were taken into consideration. This map may be used as a base for earthquake engineering and geotectonical purposes.

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Résumé Un bref aperçu sur les rapports géologiques et tectoniques dans les régions de tremblements de terre les plus importantes au Vénézuéla est suivi d'une étude standardisée des tremblements individuels, dont la magnitude était égale ou supérieure à 5,5. L'énergie sismique dégagée, calculée à partir de l'intensité macro-sismique et/ou de la magnitude (Richter), accumulée pendant 440 ans d'histoire connue des tremblements au Vénézuéla, est représentée à l'aide d'esquisses graphiques. L'inclinaison des «escaliers d'énergie» qui en résultent est la mesure de la sismicité, c'est-à-dire la distance verticale des lignes parallèles entre maxima et minima est la mesure de la magnitude la plus grande possible d'un tremblement de la région sismique en question, et on peut déduire des intervalles de temps entre les escaliers d'énergie des conclusions sur la fréquence et la prévision des tremblements. Enfin, pour tous les tremblements le volume de tremblement correspondant sous des conditions données à l'énergie sismique dégagée est calculé, projeté sur la surface de la terre et représenté sur une carte isoséiste comme régions épicentrales où l'on peut prévoir un mouvement d'ondes et des déformations de l'écorce. En particulier, des phénomènes de fraction doivent être visibles quand l'une des surfaces du volume coincide avec la surface de la terre. Finalement, à l'aide d'une constante d'intensité diminuée «c», calculée pour tous les tremblements de terre majeurs du Vénézuéla par des observations macrosismiques une carte isoséiste est dessinée pour le Vénézuéla, dans laquelle il est tenu compte des superpositions possibles de toutes les zones sismiques du pays. Cette carte peut servir de base pour le projet de bâtiments résistant aux séismes et à des buts géotectoniques.

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Über die Messung von Massensehwächungskoeffizienten bei der Phasenanalyse mit dem Zählrohrgoniometer

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Verfahren angegeben, um bei der röntgenographischen Gemischanalyse mit dem Zählrohrgoniometer, dann wenn die Gefahr von Textureffekten nicht besteht, die Intensitäten der Analysenlinien und den Massenschäwachungskoeffizienten in demselben Präparat messen zu können; dazu wird in den Boden des Präparatträgers eine Einkristallplatte eingekittet und die Schwächung gemessen, die ein Reflex der Kristallplatte durch Einbringen der Präparatsubstanz erfährt.     

Granite intruding into Granodiorite: An example from the Damara Belt,South West Africa

Until now (Smith, 1965) it was thought that in the central Damara Belt, South West Africa, the Red Granite and the Salem Granodiorite are two magmatic bodies separated by (essentially) marbles. Three places were discovered, where the marbles are missing; in all three places the Red Granite intrudes the Salem Granodiorite. Experimental melting done with samples from two of these localities allows to appraise the likely conditions during the intrusion of the Red Granite (680° C, 4 kb H₂O-pressure).The White Granites — until now thought to be late or post kinematic — are a geologically heterogeneous group, at least in one place such an intrusion precedes that of the Red Granite.

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Zusammenfassung Bis jetzt dachte man (Smith, 1965) daß im Zentralbereich des Damara-Orogens, Südwest Afrika, der Rote Granit und der Salem Granodiorit zwei magmatische Körper wären, die überall von (im wesentlichen) Marmoren getrennt seien. Es wurden drei Gegenden entdeckt, an denen die Marmore fehlen; an allen drei Stellen intrudiert der Rote Granit in den Salem Granodiorit. Schmelz-Experimente mit Proben von zwei dieser Lokalitäten erlauben die Bedingungen abzuschätzen, die während der Intrusion des Roten Granites geherrscht haben (680° C, 4 kb H₂O-Druck).Die Weißen Granite — von denen man bis jetzt glaubte, sie seien spät-oder nachkinematisch — sind eine geologisch heterogene Gruppe. Mindestens an einer Stelle geht eine Intrusion der Weißen Granite derjenigen der Roten Granite voraus.

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Résumé Jusqu'à présent (Smith, 1965) on a pensé que dans la zone centrale de l'orogène de Damara (Sud-Ouest Africain) le Granite Rouge et la Granodiorite de Salem étaient deux plutonites séparées partout par des couches de marbres. On a découvert trois endroits où les marbres n'existent pas et où le Granite Rouge forme des intrusions recoupant la Granodiorite de Salem.Des essais de fusibilité sur des échantillons provenant de deux de ces localité permettent d'estimer les conditions d'intrusion du Granite Rouge (680° C avec des pressions H₂O de 4–5 kb).Les Granites blancs (acceptés jusqu'à présent comme tardi orogéniques) forment géologiquement une groupe hétérogène. En un endroit au moins, une intrusion de Granite blanc est recoupée par une intrusion du Granite Rouge, plus jeune.

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