Prospects for the William Herschel Telescope

René Rutten, Director of the Isaac Newton Group of Telescopes, sets the scene for future developments in international astronomy on La Palma.     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Über den Eisengehalt von Alumosilikaten aus Quarzknauern

Zusammenfassung Der Eisengehalt von Andalusiten und Disthenen aus Quarzknauern im Gebiet des Ötztaler—Stubaier Altkristallins wurde regional untersucht. Der Gehalt and Gesamteisen in primären Disthen liegt zwischen 0,17 und 0,22 Gew.% Fe₂O₃, während primäre Andalusite zwischen 0,26 und 1,93 Gew.% Fe₂O₃ schwanken. Dieser Unterschied in den Andalusiten wird auf ein wechselndes Angebot von Fe₂O₃ aus dem Nachbargestein der Knauern zurückgeführt.Ein Zusammenhang zwischen dem Eisengehalt der Andalusite und den verschiedenen Umwandlungsstadien Andalusit—Disthen konnte nicht nachgewiesen werden.

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On the iron content of alumosilicates in quartz nodules

Summary A determination of the regional distribution of the ironcontent of andalusites and kyanites in quartz-segregations of the Oetztal—Stubai crystalline complex gave values of 0.17–0.22% for the total iron in primary kyanite and 0.26–1.93% in andalusite. This difference is probably due to a variation in the Fe₂O₃-content in the country rocks of the quartz veins. No relationship between the iron-content in andalusite and the different stages of transformation from andalusite to kyanite could be established.

     

Stratigraphie und Fazies des Erzgebirgischen Kristallins im Rahmen des Mitteleuropäischen Varistikums

Zusammenfassung Es läßt sich zeigen, daß im erzgebirgischen Raum die jungalgonkische Serie des varistischen Sockels von der Petrofazies diskordant geschnitten wird. Im Bereich des erzgebirgischen Kristallins steigt die Amphibolitfazies beulenförmig bis an die Basis des varistischen Sedimenttroges auf. Mit diesem Aufstieg wird eine Granitbildung regionalen und lokalen Charakters als möglich in Verbindung gebracht.

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It can be demonstrated that the Upper Algonkian rocks of the Hercynian basement are disconformably cut by the petrofacies of the Erzgebirge. In the environment of crystallin rocks amphibolitic facies ascend to the bottom of the hercynian sedimentary trough. With this rise a granitisation of regional and locally restricted character might seem to be possible.

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Résumé On peut montrer que dans la région de l'Erzgebirge les couches de l'Algonkien supérieur du socle hercynien sont recoupées en discordance par le petrofacies. Dans le domaine du cristallin de l'Erzgebirge, le facies amphibolite a la forme d'un dûme atteignant la base de la fosse sédimentaire varisque. On croit pouvoir établir une relation entre la formation de granite à l'échelle régionale et locale et cette montée métamorphique.

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Herrn Prof. Dr. Dr. h. c.Erich Bederke zum 70. Geburtstag gewidmet.     

Multicollinearity and correlation among local regression coefficients in geographically weighted regression

Present methodological research on geographically weighted regression (GWR) focuses primarily on extensions of the basic GWR model, while ignoring well-established diagnostics tests commonly used in standard global regression analysis. This paper investigates multicollinearity issues surrounding the local GWR coefficients at a single location and the overall correlation between GWR coefficients associated with two different exogenous variables. Results indicate that the local regression coefficients are potentially collinear even if the underlying exogenous variables in the data generating process are uncorrelated. Based on these findings, applied GWR research should practice caution in substantively interpreting the spatial patterns of local GWR coefficients. An empirical disease-mapping example is used to motivate the GWR multicollinearity problem. Controlled experiments are performed to systematically explore coefficient dependency issues in GWR. These experiments specify global models that use eigenvectors from a spatial link matrix as exogenous variables.This study was supported by grant number 1 R1 CA95982-01, Geographic-Based Research in Cancer Control and Epidermiology, from the National Cancer Institute. The author thank the anonymous reviewers and the editor for their helpful comments.     

Wolkenklassifikation auf Morphologischer Grundlage

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine Wolkensystematik vorgeschlagen auf Grund der Wolkenform, der struktur — Verband — des Wolkenhimmels und auf Grund der räumlichen Verteilung der Wolken. Jede an einer Einzelwolke selbständig auftretende Form wird als Hauptform bezeichnet und folgende Typen werden genannt: Schicht, Scheier, Faser, Welle, Linse, Balle, Flocke, Haufen (Cumulus) und Dorn. Andere, dem Verfasser bisher unbekannte Formen könnten dazugefügt werden. Zwischen den Hauptformen treten alle möglichen Uebergänge auf, die noch mit der nicht dominierenden Hauptform, Nebenform genannt, charakterisiert werden. Zusätzliche Formen-elemente, die aber nicht selbständig auftreten können, werden Spielformen genannt (Mammatus etc.).Auf die Bedeutung der Verbandsverhältnisse und der räumlichen Anordnung wurde in Beispielen hingewiesen. Die klare Unterscheidung zwischen Form, Verband und Anordnung gestattet, Wolkenbestimmungstabellen zu erstellen.

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Summary The author proposes a systematical cloud classification according to their form (shape), their association (structure) and their repartition on the sky. Every form of a single cloud which appears independent of other forms is called main form or main shape. The following forms can be distinguished: layer, wave, lens, veil, thred, bale, flake, cumulus, thorn. Other forms may be added if necessary. All possible combinations of forms are to be found inbetween the main forms, so that there will be a secondary form next to the mainform (e. g. wave-lens). Additional forms which exist only together with main or secondary forms are details (e. g. mammatus). Some examples given in this study show the importance of combination's assembly and their repartitition in space. A clear difference made between the form, association and repartition allows to establish a convenient way of determining the clouds.

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Résumé L'auteur propose une classification des nuages d'après leur forme, leur structure (assemblage) et aussi d'après leur répartition dans l'espace. L'allure d'un nuage indépendant donne sa forme principale définie comme suit: couche, voile, veine, vague, lentille, balle, flocon, cumulus et pointe. D'autres formes peuvent être ajoutées. Entre les formes principales se trouvent toutes les combinaisons possibles qui ne sont pas dominantes, elles sont nommées les formes secondaires. Des états supplémentaires qui ne sont pas indépendants, constituent le jeu des formes.

     

Coma expansion and photometry of comet Bowell (1980b)

Optical and infrared observations of comet Bowell are presented. The optical observations indicate that the solid grain coma is expanding at only 0.9 ± 0.2 m sec^?1. This is two orders of magnitude slower than the local gas sound speed and may suggest that gas drag is not responsible for stripping the grains from the nucleus. The hypothesis of “electrostatic snap-off” is tentatively advanced to account for the ejection of the grains. Alternatively, the grains may have an unusual size distribution. The extrapolated motion of the grains suggests that the bulk of the coma was formed when the comet was at a heliocentric distance $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$. Any water ice in the nucleus would be too cold to give rise to the observed grain coma by equilibrium sublimation at this R. Further evidence against the production of the grain coma by equilibrium sublimation of the nucleus is provided by broadband (J) photometric observations. Almost all of the observed photometric variations of comet Bowell can be ascribed to geometric effects. Simple models indicate that the total grain cross section has been nearly constant since the time of the earliest observations. The present observations, which suggest that water ice sublimation does not control either the optical morphology or the near infrared photometric behavior of comet Bowell, are contrasted with reported high OH production rates. It is concluded that the grain coma may be largely a relic of activity occurring on the nucleus at $\text{R ? 10}\text{AU}$ while the OH may indicate sublimation from the nucleus near perihelion and from coma grains near $\text{R ? 4.6}\text{AU}$.     

Faunas from the upper silurian (upper ludlovian) in the ludlow-much wenlock district,England

Faunal lists for 17 sections in the Overton Formation are presented. Faunal diversity appears to increase towards the formations base while faunal dominance appears to increase towards its top.