Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC DATA CAPTURE: AN INEXPENSIVE ALTERNATIVE

A case is made for the development of an inexpensive and portable data capturing unit which could be used with existing mirror stereoscopes and which could provide an accuracy sufficient for most digital map databases. The results of simulation experiments to test the accuracy of the system are presented.     

Perspectives of the ROT 54/32/2.6 in astronomy

Perspectives for the Radio-Optical Telescope 54/32/2.6 are given for scientific research in radioastronomy. Its characteristics and potential scientific fields are summarized in the frame of the present French-Armenian collaboration. A 3-phase upgrade plan including a detailed technical evaluation of the antenna is presented.Published in Astrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 4, pp. 645–648, October–December, 1995.     

A techno-economic comparison of power systems for autonomousunderwater vehicles

This paper compares lead-acid batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries, solid polymer fuel cells and closed-cycle diesel engines for autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) applications. The service is described in terms of a parametric mission and life cycle. A generic AUV is used as a basis for comparison. Power systems are evaluated by two criteria: (1) submerged endurance capability and (2) life cycle cost. This study determines categories of service for which each power system is preferred. The solid polymer fuel cell can provide greater submerged endurance than other power systems examined. For extremely long duration AUV missions, the fuel cell is the required system, indicating a possible market niche for today's fuel cell technology. Considering cost projections for each power system, the results also show that the SPFC can become cost-competitive with conventional technologies, particularly for services characterized by high levels of utilization     

Occurrence of noble metals in aluminum- and chromium- rich objects in ordinary chondrites and of baddeleyite (ZrO2) in a chromite inclusion

Abstract— Platinum group elements (PGE) enrichments are found in Fe-Ni blebs (<1 μm) in Al- and Cr-rich objects in the ordinary chondrites Ste. Marguerite, Forest Vale, Montferré. In Ste. Marguerite, high ZrO₂ concentrations (baddeleyite) are also present in a chromite inclusion. Iridium enrichment in this material compared to its metal content is confirmed by INAA. The widespread occurrence of PGE in Al- and Cr-rich objects, mostly present in H-group chondrites of nearly equilibrated types, must be taken into account to understand their conditions of formation.     

Metamorphic evolution of exhumed middle to lower crustal rocks in the Mojave Extensional Belt, southern California, USA

The Waterman Metamorphic Complex of the central Mojave Desert was exposed as a consequence of early Miocene detachment-dominated extension. However, it has evidence consistent with a more extensive geological history that involves collision of a crustal fragment(s), tectonic thickening by overthrusting and two periods of extension. The metamorphic complex contains granitoid intrusives and felsic mylonitic gneisses as well as polymetamorphic rocks that include marble, calc-silicate, quartzite. mafic granulite, pyribolite, amphibolite, migmatite and biotite schist. The latter group of rocks was affected by an initial series of high-grade metamorphic events (M1 and M2) and a localized lower grade overprint (M3). The initial metamorphism (M1) can be separated into two stages along its high-grade P–T path: M1a, a granulite facies metamorphism at 800–850° C and 7.5–9 kbar and Mlb, an upper amphibolite facies overprint at 750–800° C and 10–12 kbar. M1a developed mineral assemblages and textures consistent with granulite facies conditions at a reduced activity of H₂O and is associated with intense ductile deformation (D1) and minor local partial melting. M1b overprinted the granulite assemblages with a series of hydrous phases under conditions of increasing pressure and H₂O activity and is accompanied by little or no deformation. M2 developed at lower pressures and temperatures (650–750° C, 4.5–5.5 kbar) and is distinguished by a second local overprint of hydrous phases that reflects an input of aqueous fluids probably associated with the intrusion of a series of granitic dykes and veins. Effects of M3 are confined to the Mitchel detachment zone, an anastomosing early Miocene detachment fault, and are characterized by local ductile/brittle deformation (D2) of the pre-existing high-grade rocks and granitoid intrusives and by the production of mylonites and mylonitic gneisses under greenschist facies conditions (300–350° C, 3–5 kbar). The initial overprint (M1a) represents metamorphism, devolatilization and minor partial melting of supracrustal rocks under granulite facies conditions as a consequence of tectonic and, possibly, magmatic thickening. The increasing pressure transition of M1a to M1b reflects a period of continued compressional tectonism, thrusting and influx of H₂O, in part, locally related to crystallization of partial melts. The near isothermal decompression between M1b and M2 probably represents a pre-112-Ma extensional episode that may have been the result of a decompressional readjustment of a thickened crust. Following the initial extensional event, the metamorphic complex remained at depths of 10–17 km for at least 90 Ma until it was uplifted following Miocene extension. M3 develops locally in response to this second extensional period resulting from the early Miocene detachment faulting.