New 1982 — 1990 photometry of λ Andromedae and its 11-year cycle

We present photoelectric photometry of λ And never before published, obtained between February 1982 and December 1990 at 29 different observatories. Then we combine it with all other photometry available to us (previously published, contained in the I.A.U. Commission 27 Archives, and obtained with the Vanderbilt 16-inch automatic telescope but not yet published), to yield a 14.8-year data base. Analysis reveals a long-term cycle in mean brightness, with a full range of 0^m.15 and a period of 11.4 ± 0.4 years. Because most of our new photometry was concentrated in the 1983-84 observing season, we analyze that one well-defined light curve with a two-spot model. Spot A keeps a 0^m.04 amplitude throughout four rotation cycles whereas the amplitude of spot B diminishes from 0^m.09 down almost to 0^m.03. The spot rotation periods were 55^d.9 ± 0^d.6 and 520^d.8 ± 1^d.0, respectively.     

Geometric modelling of fades migration: theoretical development of f acies successions and local unconformities

Geometric analysis shows that the angle of migration of coastal sedimentary facies is a function of the relative sea-level change and the thickness of sediment deposited or eroded. The angle of facies migration compared to the slopes on the sediment surface determines the degree of facies preservation and stratigraphic relationships to the surrounding facies. Vertical facies successions generated by radial migration of environments show a great deal of variety because the sediment surface in both marine and non-marine areas is concave-up. Both regressive and transgressive sequences with non-erosive marine-nonmarine contacts can be generated. Transgression at a slightly lower angle can form a ravinement surface cut on non-marine deposits with onlapping barrier sands or shallow marine deposits. Regression with relative sea-level drop generates a minor erosion surface with baselapping isolated shoreline deposits. Disequilibrium conditions occur when sea level varies at a rate exceeding the ability of the system to supply or redistribute sediment, with resulting changes in surficial slopes. Onlapping and downlapping stratal relationships across erosion surfaces result because of differences in slopes between marine and non-marine environments. These discontinuities are generally less than one degree, but could possibly be recognized on high quality multichannel seismic lines. Most of these discontinuities are probably not regionally extensive enough to be regarded as sequence boundaries. Tectonic tilting or differential subsidence of strata during depositional hiatuses is necessary to generate true regional unconformities or sequence boundaries. Where facies climb with respect to horizontal, erosion surfaces produced only by this migration may cut across lithostratigraphic units at higher angles, up to 3 or 4 degrees. Low-angle erosion surfaces relevant to the scales of sequence stratigraphic studies may result only from facies migration, even during a period of relative sea-level rise.     

Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs

Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a possible option for offsetting some anthropogenic radiative forcing, with the goal of reducing some of the associated climatic changes. There are clearly significant uncertainties associated with SRM, and even small-scale experiments that might reduce uncertainty would carry some risk. However, there are also natural and anthropogenic analogs to SRM, such as volcanic eruptions in the case of stratospheric aerosol injection and ship tracks in the case of marine cloud albedo modification. It is essential to understand what we can learn from these analogs in order to validate models, particularly because of the problematic nature of outdoor experiments. It is also important to understand what we cannot learn, as this might better focus attention on what risks would need to be solely examined by numerical models. Stratospheric conditions following a major volcanic eruption, for example, are not the same as those to be expected from intentional geoengineering, both because of confounding effects of volcanic ash and the differences between continuous and impulsive injection of material into the stratosphere. Nonetheless, better data would help validate models; we thus recommend an appropriate plan be developed to better monitor the next large volcanic eruption. Similarly, more could be learned about cloud albedo modification from careful study not only of ship tracks, but of ship and other aerosol emission sources in cloud regimes beyond the narrow conditions under which ship tracks form; this would benefit from improved satellite observing capabilities.     

Are estimated costs of stringent mitigation biased?

We take issue with the claim by Tavoni and Tol (Clim Chang 100:769–778, 2010) that reviews of the macroeconomic costs of achieving the 2 °C climate target have been affected by selection bias and have underestimated the costs. Although many more cost estimates are available in the literature, they have restricted their survey to the data in the EMF22 study, with a limited set of model solutions for the 2 °C target. They have applied the methodology of observational meta-analysis inappropriately to policy meta-analysis, where the number of results is often very small and the basis for imputing a statistical distribution does not usually exist. They have mixed direct costs with net costs in terms of %GDP. Their method of “correcting” for missing data with (high) costs of stringent mitigation could equally be applied to correcting the data for omission of mitigation options such as biomass energy with carbon capture so reducing the cost estimates. And finally they implicitly assume that the same policy combinations and mitigation options are applied for all climate scenarios, when more stringent scenarios may require more stringent policies and options, such as regulation or BECCS. The conclusion from the literature is more appropriately that the costs are highly uncertain, that they can equally be positive or negative (gains) and that models which fail to solve for stringent mitigations are not fit for purpose.     

Globalization,Pacific Islands,and the paradox of resilience

On April 2nd, 2007 a 12 m tsunami struck Simbo, a relatively remote island in Western Province, Solomon Islands. Although Simbo's population continues to depend on their own food production and small-scale governance regimes regulate access to resources, the island's way of life over the last century has increasingly been affected by processes associated with globalization. In this context of a rapidly globalizing world, this article examines the island's resilience and vulnerability to the tsunami and the adaptive capacities that enabled the response and recovery. The tsunami completely destroyed two villages and damaged fringing coral reefs, but casualties were low and social–ecological rebound relatively brisk. By combining social science methods (household surveys, focus group and ethnographic interviews) and underwater reef surveys we identify a number of countervailing challenges and opportunities presented by globalization that both nurture and suppress the island's resilience to high amplitude, low-frequency disturbances like tsunamis. Analysis suggests that certain adaptive capacities that sustain general system resilience come at the cost of more vulnerability to low-probability hazards. We discuss how communities undergoing increasingly complex processes of change must negotiate these kinds of trade-offs as they manage resilience at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the shifting dynamics of resilience may be critical for Pacific Island communities who seek to leverage globalization in their favor as they adapt to current social–ecological change and prepare for future large-scale ecological disturbances.     

苏鲁超高压变质带的岩浆型超镁铁原岩：来自中国大陆科学钻探主孔的亏损氧同位素证据

苏鲁超高压变质带有大量的超镁铁岩体,对这些岩体的成因的研究一直是一个热点。为了鉴别这个地区有无在俯冲进变质前经历过地壳浅部地质过程的超镁铁岩,本文利用BrF5气氛中用CO2红外激光熔样和质谱测试分析方法对中国大陆科学钻探工程主孔内603．20-683．53m深度的三个石榴单辉橄榄岩样品的单矿物橄榄石、石榴石、单斜辉石的氧同位素进行了分析。橄榄石的δ^18O值为＋3．31‰＋3．82‰;石榴石的为＋4．03‰＋4．10‰;单斜辉石的δ^18O值误差较大,平均值为＋2．10‰。这些矿物的氧同位素组成总地低于典型的地幔值。研究表明,岩石单矿物低δ^18O值是侵入到地壳浅部的超镁铁岩体与寒冷大气降水热液之间的氧同位素交换反应所造成,之后发生了与地壳围岩一齐的俯冲、超高压变质、折返退变质等过程。这是苏鲁地区首次发现的低δ^18O值的岩浆侵入型超镁铁岩体,具有重要的大陆动力学意义,从超镁铁岩方面证明了苏鲁地体可能是大别地体的东延部分。     

Mathematical models for petroleum-forming processes: carbon isotope fractionation

A mathematical model has been developed in which carbon isotope fractionation during thermal cracking of n-paraffins can be simulated. The model has been calibrated based on data from laboratory cracking experiments carried out on n-octadecane. Relative rate constants for cleavage of C¹²-C¹², C¹²-C¹³ and C¹³-C¹³ bonds agree with the experimental values obtained by other workers.Application of this model to the process of petroleum formation gives good agreement with some existing experimental data, but suggests that a review of our understanding of isotope fractionation during thermal cracking may be necessary. The relative importance of the degree to which the organic material has been cracked and of the type of the organic material in influencing δC¹³ values is discussed.The present model predicts that cracking of n-paraffin distributions having initial odd or even carbon number predominances can induce isotopic inhomogeneity among the homologs of the resulting distribution. The model exhibits some deficiencies in explaining or predicting the δC¹³ values of ethane and propane in relation to methane in gases and of oils and associated methane. Explanations for these discrepancies may lie in the simplicity of our mathematical model, in our assumption of initial isotopic homogeneity within molecules and in our use of only n-paraffins as the source molecules for the cracking reactions.     

Fundamental physics and absolute positioning metrology with the MAGIA lunar orbiter

MAGIA is a mission approved by the Italian Space Agency (ASI) for Phase A study. Using a single large-diameter laser retroreflector, a large laser retroreflector array and an atomic clock onboard MAGIA we propose to perform several fundamental physics and absolute positioning metrology experiments: VESPUCCI, an improved test of the gravitational redshift in the Earth?CMoon system predicted by General Relativity; MoonLIGHT-P, a precursor test of a second generation Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) payload for precision gravity and lunar science measurements under development for NASA, ASI and robotic missions of the proposed International Lunar Network (ILN); Selenocenter (the center of mass of the Moon), the determination of the position of the Moon center of mass with respect to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame/System (ITRF/ITRS); this will be compared to the one from Apollo and Lunokhod retroreflectors on the surface; MapRef, the absolute referencing of MAGIA??s lunar altimetry, gravity and geochemical maps with respect to the ITRF/ITRS. The absolute positioning of MAGIA will be achieved thanks to: (1) the laboratory characterization of the retroreflector performance at INFN-LNF; (2) the precision tracking by the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS), which gives two fundamental contributions to the ITRF/ITRS, i.e. the metrological definition of the geocenter (the Earth center of mass) and of the scale of length; (3) the radio science and accelerometer payloads; (4) support by the ASI Space Geodesy Center in Matera, Italy. Future ILN geodetic nodes equipped with MoonLIGHT and the Apollo/Lunokhod retroreflectors will become the first realization of the International Moon Reference Frame (IMRF), the lunar analog of the ITRF.