中国大别山双河超高压变质大理岩的氧、碳同位素

中国大别山双河超高压变质岩板中发育了一系列大理岩层和透镜体 ,其δ18O值介于 1 1 1‰～ 2 0 5‰ (SMOW)间 ,δ13 C值介于 1 .0‰～ 5 .7‰ (PDB)间 .详细调查表明 ,大理岩的氧、碳同位素值在厘米尺度上表现出均一化 ,但在大于1m的范围内则不均一 .与已经同地幔中的碳发生均一化的挪威榴辉岩相大理岩不同 ,双河超高压大理岩的碳同位素则保留了沉积碳酸盐岩的特征 ,而且表现出白云石含量与δ13 C间的负相关关系 .与原岩相比 ,双河大理岩18O有所亏损 .这种亏损来自 3种可能的地质过程 :( 1 )在超高压变质作用前曾与亏损18O的水发生过氧同位素交换 ;( 2 )在超高压变质过程中发生过脱碳酸盐作用 ;( 3)在退变质过程中与围岩片麻岩在接触部位发生过有限的氧同位素交换 .氧、碳同位素研究表明 ,超高压变质岩的俯冲和折返过程历时较短 ,且在该过程中 ,流体的活动性极为有限 .     

Changes in the Probability of Heavy Precipitation: Important Indicators of Climatic Change

A simple statistical model of daily precipitation based on the gamma distribution is applied to summer (JJA in Northern Hemisphere, DJF in Southern Hemisphere) data from eight countries: Canada, the United States, Mexico, the former Soviet Union, China, Australia, Norway, and Poland. These constitute more than 40% of the global land mass, and more than 80% of the extratropical land area. It is shown that the shape parameter of this distribution remains relatively stable, while the scale parameter is most variable spatially and temporally. This implies that the changes in mean monthly precipitation totals tend to have the most influence on the heavy precipitation rates in these countries. Observations show that in each country under consideration (except China), mean summer precipitation has increased by at least 5% in the past century. In the USA, Norway, and Australia the frequency of summer precipitation events has also increased, but there is little evidence of such increases in any of the countries considered during the past fifty years. A scenario is considered, whereby mean summer precipitation increases by 5% with no change in the number of days with precipitation or the shape parameter. When applied in the statistical model, the probability of daily precipitation exceeding 25.4 mm (1 inch) in northern countries (Canada, Norway, Russia, and Poland) or 50.8 mm (2 inches) in mid-latitude countries (the USA, Mexico, China, and Australia) increases by about 20% (nearly four times the increase in mean). The contribution of heavy rains (above these thresholds) to the total 5% increase of precipitation is disproportionally high (up to 50%), while heavy rain usually constitutes a significantly smaller fraction of the precipitation events and totals in extratropical regions (but up to 40% in the tropics, e.g., in southern Mexico). Scenarios with moderate changes in the number of days with precipitation coupled with changes in the scale parameter were also investigated and found to produce smaller increases in heavy rainfall but still support the above conclusions. These scenarios give changes in heavy rainfall which are comparable to those observed and are consistent with the greenhouse-gas-induced increases in heavy precipitation simulated by some climate models for the next century. In regions with adequate data coverage such as the eastern two-thirds of contiguous United States, Norway, eastern Australia, and the European part of the former USSR, the statistical model helps to explain the disproportionate high changes in heavy precipitation which have been observed.     

Longitudinal distributions of river flood power: the combined automated flood,elevation and stream power (CAFES) methodology

Stream power can be an extremely useful index of fluvial sediment transport, channel pattern, river channel erosion and riparian habitat development. However, most previous studies of downstream changes in stream power have relied on field measurements at selected cross‐sections, which are time consuming, and typically based on limited data, which cannot fully represent important spatial variations in stream power. We present here, therefore, a novel methodology we call CAFES (combined automated flood, elevation and stream power), to quantify downstream change in river flood power, based on integrating in a GIS framework Flood Estimation Handbook systems with the 5 m grid NEXTMap Britain digital elevation model derived from IFSAR (interferometric synthetic aperture radar). This provides a useful modelling platform to quantify at unprecedented resolution longitudinal distributions of flood discharge, elevation, floodplain slope and flood power at reach and basin scales. Values can be resolved to a 50 m grid. CAFES approaches have distinct advantages over current methodologies for reach‐ and basin‐scale stream power assessments and therefore for the interpretation and prediction of fluvial processes. The methodology has significant international applicability for understanding basin‐scale hydraulics, sediment transport, erosion and sedimentation processes and river basin management. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Surge in sulphur and halogen degassing from Ambrym volcano,Vanuatu

Volcanoes provide important contributions to atmospheric budgets of SO₂ and reactive halogens, which play significant roles in atmospheric oxidative capacity and radiation. However, the global source strengths of volcanic emissions remain poorly constrained. These uncertainties are highlighted here by the first measurements of gas emission rates from Ambrym volcano, Vanuatu. Our initial airborne ultraviolet spectroscopic measurements made in January 2005 indicate fluxes of 18–270 kg s^-1 of SO₂, and 62–110 g s^-1 of BrO, into the atmosphere, placing Ambrym amongst the largest known contemporary point sources of both these species on Earth. We also estimate high Cl and F fluxes of ~8–14 and ~27–50 kg s^-1, respectively, for this period. Further observations using both airborne and spaceborne remote sensing reveal a fluctuating SO₂ output between 2004 and 2008, with a surge in the first half of 2005, and underline the substantial contribution that a single passively degassing volcano can make to the atmospheric budget of sulfur and halogens.     

Investigating strong ground-motion variability using analysis of variance and two-way-fit plots

A statistical method to quantitatively assess the relative importance of unmodelled site and source effects on the observed variability (σ) in ground motions is presented. The method consists of analysis of variance (ANOVA) using the computed residuals with respect to an empirical ground-motion model for strong-motion records of various earthquakes recorded at a common set of stations. ANOVA divides the overall variance (σ ²) into the components due to site and source effects (respectively σ _S ² and σ _E ²) not modelled by the ground-motion model plus the residual variance not explained by these effects (σ _R ²). To test this procedure, four sets of observed strong-motion records: two from Italy (Umbria-Marche and Molise), one from the French Antilles and one from Turkey, are used. It is found that for the data from Italy, the vast majority of the observed variance is attributable to unmodelled site effects. In contrast, the variation in ground motions in the French Antilles and Turkey data is largely attributable, especially at short periods, to source effects not modelled by the ground-motion estimation equations used.     

Using Estimated Risk to Develop Stimulation Strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped completely if the risk is above the red level. Based on simulations using a recently developed model of induced seismicity in geothermal systems, which is checked here using observations from the Basel EGS, in this article it is shown that the proposed procedure could lead to both acceptable levels of risk and increased permeability.     

Observing Global Surface Water Flood Dynamics

Flood waves moving along river systems are both a key determinant of globally important biogeochemical and ecological processes and, at particular times and particular places, a major environmental hazard. In developed countries, sophisticated observing networks and ancillary data, such as channel bathymetry and floodplain terrain, exist with which to understand and model floods. However, at global scales, satellite data currently provide the only means of undertaking such studies. At present, there is no satellite mission dedicated to observing surface water dynamics and, therefore, surface water scientists make use of a range of sensors developed for other purposes that are distinctly sub-optimal for the task in hand. Nevertheless, by careful combination of the data available from topographic mapping, oceanographic, cryospheric and geodetic satellites, progress in understanding some of the world’s major river, floodplain and wetland systems can be made. This paper reviews the surface water data sets available to hydrologists on a global scale and the recent progress made in the field. Further, the paper looks forward to the proposed NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography satellite mission that may for the first time provide an instrument that meets the needs of the hydrology community.