Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.     

Decadal predictions of the cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic in the 1960s and the role of ocean circulation

In the 1960s North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled rapidly. The magnitude of the cooling was largest in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and was coincident with a rapid freshening of the SPG. Here we analyze hindcasts of the 1960s North Atlantic cooling made with the UK Met Office’s decadal prediction system (DePreSys), which is initialised using observations. It is shown that DePreSys captures—with a lead time of several years—the observed cooling and freshening of the North Atlantic SPG. DePreSys also captures changes in SST over the wider North Atlantic and surface climate impacts over the wider region, such as changes in atmospheric circulation in winter and sea ice extent. We show that initialisation of an anomalously weak Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and hence weak northward heat transport, is crucial for DePreSys to predict the magnitude of the observed cooling. Such an anomalously weak AMOC is not captured when ocean observations are not assimilated (i.e. it is not a forced response in this model). The freshening of the SPG is also dominated by ocean salt transport changes in DePreSys; in particular, the simulation of advective freshwater anomalies analogous to the Great Salinity Anomaly were key. Therefore, DePreSys suggests that ocean dynamics played an important role in the cooling of the North Atlantic in the 1960s, and that this event was predictable.     

The fall of the St-Robert meteorite

Abstract The St-Robert (Québec, Canada) meteorite shower occurred on 1994 June 15 at 0h02m UT accompanied by detonations audible for >200 km from the fireball endpoint. The fireball was recorded by visual observers in Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Québec and Ontario as well as by optical and infrared sensors in Earth-orbit. Penetration to an altitude of 36 km occurred ～60 km to the northeast of Montreal, where the bolide experienced several episodes of fragmentation. A total of 20 fragments of this H5 chondrite, comprising a total mass of 25.4 kg, were recovered in an ellipse measuring 8 × 3.5 km. One fragment of the shower partially penetrated the aluminum roof of a shed. Interpretation of the visual and satellite data suggests that the fireball traveled from south-southwest to north-northeast, with a slope from the horizontal of 55°–61°. A statistical evaluation of the likely heliocentric orbits for the body prior to collision with the Earth, coupled with theoretical modeling of the entry, suggests an entry velocity in the range of 12.7–13.3 km/s; the meteoroid had moved in a low-inclination orbit, with orbital perihelion located extremely close to the Earth's orbit. From satellite optical data, it is found that the photometric mass consumed during the largest detonation is ～1200 kg. Estimation of the amplitude of the acoustic signal detected by the most distant observer yields a source energy near 0.5 kt TNT equivalent energy, which corresponds to a mass of order 10 metric tonnes. This measure is uncertain to approximately one order of magnitude. Theoretical modeling of the entry of the object suggests a mass near 1600 kg. Cosmogenic radionuclide activities constrain the lower initial mass to be ～700 kg with an upper limit near 4000 kg. Seismic data possibly associated with the fireball suggest extremely poor coupling between the airwave and the ground. The total mass estimated to have reached the ground is ～100 kg (in material comprising >55 g fragments), while the preatmospheric mass is found to be most probably in the range of 1200–2000 kg.     

Backyard spectroscopy and photometry of Titan, Uranus and Neptune

We present and discuss observations of Titan (photometry and spectroscopy) and Uranus and Neptune (spectroscopy only) obtained using off-the-shelf equipment, affordable and available to many amateur astronomers and small colleges. Spectral observations compare well with published results from front-line observatories, and some evidence of seasonal change is evident in both spectra and narrowband photometry. Scattered Saturn light presents a significant problem for Titan observations, in particular, for slitless spectroscopy, and our attempts to reproduce Titan's lightcurve have so far been unsuccessful.     

鼓式土工离心机技术及其工程应用研究

20世纪90年代以来,离心机模型试验在岩土工程的研究和工程实践等方面的应用得到了显著的提高。研究者之所以把目光投向离心机,是因为相对于昂贵和未知的现场试验来说,用离心机模型试验要比现场试验更为优越。自从1978年剑桥大学Schofield首次利用鼓式离心机以来,它的应用研究越来越多。通过介绍鼓式离心机的主要结构、模型控制以及数据采集系统等主要特征参数,阐述了其在岩土工程应用中的优点。通过PCC桩的承载特性模型试验介绍了鼓式离心机在岩土工程中的应用。     

The importance of population,climate change and CO2 plant physiological forcing in determining future global water stress

Future levels of water stress depend on changes in several key factors including population, climate-change driven water availability, and a carbon dioxide physiological-forcing effect on evaporation and run-off. In this study we use an ensemble of the HadCM3 climate model forced with a range of future emissions scenarios combined with a simple water scarcity index to assess the contribution of each of these factors to the projected population living in water stress over the 21st century.Population change only scenarios increase the number of people living in water stress such that at peak global population 65% of people experience some level of water stress. Globally, the climate model ensemble projects an increase in water availability which partially offsets some of the impacts of population growth. The result is 1 billion fewer people living in water stress by the 2080s under the high end emissions scenarios than if population increased in the absence of climate change.This study highlights the important role plant-physiological forcing has on future water resources. The effect of rising CO₂ is to increase available water and to reduce the number of people living in high water stress by around 200 million compared to climate only projections. This effect is of a similar order of magnitude to climate change.     

Close-range terrestrial digital photogrammetry and terrestrial laser scanning for discontinuity characterization on rock cuts

This paper reviews the application of close-range terrestrial digital photogrammetry and terrestrial laser scanning for discontinuity characterization on rock cuts. Terrestrial remote sensing techniques are being increasingly used as a complement to traditional scanline and window mapping methods. They provide more comprehensive information on rock cuts, allow surveying of inaccessible outcrops, and increase user safety. Selected case studies are used to estimate the accuracy of several 3D model registration approaches and the most time-, effort- and cost-effective methods are highlighted. It is shown that simple registration networks are able to provide adequate measurement of discontinuity orientation for engineering purposes. The case studies presented also illustrate the effects of sampling bias and limitations related to discontinuity characterization using remote sensing techniques. Vertical orientation bias and occlusion can be of particular concern when persistent discontinuities dip at the same angle as the camera/scanner line-of-sight. Major advantages of the techniques are presented illustrating how terrestrial remote sensing techniques provide rapid spatial measurements of discontinuity location, orientation and curvature and are well suited to the quantification of persistence magnitudes greater than 3 m.     

The graininess of dark matter haloes

We use the recently completed one billion particle Via Lactea II Λ cold dark matter simulation to investigate local properties like density, mean velocity, velocity dispersion, anisotropy, orientation and shape of the velocity dispersion ellipsoid, as well as the structure in velocity space of dark matter haloes. We show that at the same radial distance from the halo centre, these properties can deviate by orders of magnitude from the canonical, spherically averaged values, a variation that can only be partly explained by triaxiality and the presence of subhaloes. The mass density appears smooth in the central relaxed regions but spans four orders of magnitude in the outskirts, both because of the presence of subhaloes as well as of underdense regions and holes in the matter distribution. In the inner regions, the local velocity dispersion ellipsoid is aligned with the shape ellipsoid of the halo. This is not true in the outer parts where the orientation becomes more isotropic. The clumpy structure in local velocity space of the outer halo cannot be well described by a smooth multivariate normal distribution. Via Lactea II also shows the presence of cold streams made visible by their high 6D phase space density. Generally, the structure of dark matter haloes shows a high degree of graininess in phase space that cannot be described by a smooth distribution function.     

The Palliser Rockslide, Canadian Rocky Mountains: Characterization and modeling of a stepped failure surface

This paper presents the results of an investigation of the prehistoric Palliser Rockslide, Rocky Mountains, Canada. Conventional aerial photograph interpretation and field mapping are complemented by terrestrial digital photogrammetry. These techniques allow quantification of the rockslide debris volume and reconstruction of the pre-slide topography. It has been estimated that the volume of rock involved in the most recent large rockslide is 8 Mm³. Terrestrial digital photogrammetry is used in the characterization of the failure surface morphology, which is subdivided into four types of step-path geometry comprising both pre-existing discontinuities and intact rock fractures. Incorporation of these data into various rock slope stability numerical modeling methods highlights a complex failure mechanism, which includes sliding along a large scale curved failure surface, intact rock bridge fracturing and lateral confinement. A preliminary quantification of the contribution of intact rock bridges to the shear strength of the failure surface is presented in terms of the apparent cohesion, apparent tensile strength and cumulative length of the intact rock segments.