Shifts in isotopic signatures of animals with complex life-cycles can complicate conclusions on cross-boundary trophic links

Stable isotopes (¹³C and ¹⁵N) are widely applied in studies of trophic links. We used this method to investigate the contribution of aquatic and terrestrial prey to the diet of riparian predatory arthropods in two mountain headwater streams in Colorado, USA. Aquatic and terrestrial prey and riparian predators were collected during summer 2009. To evaluate the reliability of conclusions based on stable isotope ratios, we compared the isotopic signatures of aquatic larval and terrestrial adult stages of three abundant stream insect species and assessed variation in mixing model estimates for spider diet composition under varying assumptions for trophic fractionation. Adult isotopic signatures of some aquatic prey species were indistinguishable from those of prey species with exclusively terrestrial life histories (stoneflies: ¹³C and ¹⁵N, chironomids: ¹³C). Other prey had distinctly aquatic isotopic signatures as both larvae and adults (a mayfly and a caddisfly). There was no evidence that prey with aquatic isotopic signatures contributed to the diet of the spiders near one stream. For the other stream, mixing model analysis suggested that chironomids were included in the diets of lycosid, linyphiid and liocranid spiders. Reliable estimates of the contributions of prey sources were compromised by the sensitivity of mixing models to assumptions on trophic fractionation and the presence of “isotopically cryptic” prey. This study emphasizes the importance of supporting isotope-based studies on cross-boundary trophic links with data on isotopic shifts in prey with complex life cycles and assessment of fractionation rates specific to the study system.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

The response in floodplain respiration of an alpine river to experimental inundation under different temperature regimes

The respiratory potential [i.e. electron transport system activity (ETSA)] of soils and sediments from five floodplain habitats (channel, gravel, islands, riparian forest and grassland) of the Urbach River, Switzerland, and actual respiration rate (R) of the same samples exposed to experimental inundation were measured. Measurements were carried out at three incubation temperatures (4°C, 12°C and 20°C), and ETSA/R ratios (i.e. exploitation of the overall metabolic capacity) were investigated to better understand the effects of temperature and inundation on floodplain functional heterogeneity. Furthermore, ETSA/R ratios obtained during experimental inundation were compared with ETSA/R ratios from field measurements to investigate the exploitation in total metabolic potential at different conditions. Lowest ETSA and R were measured in samples from channel and gravel habitats, followed by those from islands. Substantially higher values were measured in soils from riparian forest and grassland. Both ETSA and R increased with increasing temperature in samples from all habitats, while the ETSA/R ratio decreased because of a rapid response in microbial community respiration to higher temperatures. The metabolic capacity exploitation (i.e. ETSA/R) during experimental inundation was lowest in predominantly terrestrial samples (riparian forest and grassland), indicating the weakest response to wetted conditions. Comparison of experimentally inundated and field conditions revealed that in rarely flooded soils, the metabolic capacity was less exploited during inundation than during non‐flooded conditions. The results suggest high sensitivity in floodplain respiration to changes in temperature and hydrological regime. ETSA/R ratios are considered good indicators of changes in metabolic activity of floodplain soils and sediments, and thus useful to estimate the impact of changes in hydrological regime or to evaluate success of floodplain restoration actions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.     

Analysis of fracture induced scattering of microseismic shear-waves

Fractures are pervasive features within the Earth’s crust and have a significant influence on the multi-physical response of the subsurface. The presence of coherent fracture sets often leads to observable seismic scattering enabling seismic techniques to remotely locate and characterise fracture systems. In this study, we confirm the general scale-dependence of seismic scattering and provide new results specific to shear-wave propagation. We do this by generating full waveform synthetics using finite-difference wave simulation within an isotropic background model containing explicit fractures. By considering a suite of fracture models having variable fracture density and fracture size, we examine the widening effect of wavelets due to scattering within a fractured medium by using several different approaches, such as root-mean-square envelope analysis, shear-wave polarisation distortion, differential attenuation analysis and peak frequency shifting. The analysis allows us to assess the scattering behavior of parametrised models in which the propagation direction is either normal or parallel to the fracture surfaces. The quantitative measures show strong observable deviations for fractures size on the order of or greater than the dominant seismic wavelength within the Mie and geometric scattering regime for both propagation normal and parallel to fracture strike. The results suggest that strong scattering is symptomatic of fractures having size on the same order of the probing seismic wave.     

Maximizing Net Extraction Using an Injection‐Extraction Well Pair in a Coastal Aquifer

In this study, we examine the maximum net extraction rate from the novel arrangement of an injection‐extraction well pair in a coastal aquifer, where fresh groundwater is reinjected through the injection well located between the interface toe and extraction well. Complex potential theory is employed to derive a new analytical solution for the maximum net extraction rate and corresponding stagnation‐point locations and recirculation ratio, assuming steady‐state, sharp‐interface conditions. The injection‐extraction well‐pair system outperforms a traditional single extraction well in terms of net extraction rate for a broad range of well placement and pumping rates, which is up to 50% higher for an aquifer with a thickness of 20 m, hydraulic conductivity of 10 m/d, and fresh water influx of 0.24 m²/d. Sensitivity analyses show that for a given fresh water discharge from an inland aquifer, a larger maximum net extraction is expected in cases with a smaller hydraulic conductivity or a smaller aquifer thickness, notwithstanding physical limits to drawdown at the pumping well that are not considered here. For an extraction well with a fixed location, the optimal net extraction rate linearly increases with the distance between the injection well and the sea, and the corresponding injection rate and recirculation ratio also increase. The analytical analysis in this study provides initial guidance for the design of well‐pair systems in coastal aquifers, and is therefore an extension beyond previous applications of analytical solutions of coastal pumping that apply only to extraction or injection wells.     

Analysis of some aromatic hydrocarbons in a benzene-soluble bitumen from Green River shale

The hydrocarbon content of an aromatic fraction, isolated from the bitumen of Green River shale, was studied by mass spectrometry, infra-red spectrometry, gas chromatography and a dehydrogenation technique. The hydrocarbon types and their distribution in this aromatic fraction, as determined by mass spectrometry, include the following: C_nH_2n?6(10%), C_nH_{2n?8 (31 %)}, C_nH_2n?10(18%), C_nH_2n?12(12%), C_nH_2n?14(8%) and a series of alkenylbenzenes (20%). The carbon-number range, empirical formulae and quantity of each compound in the major types are reported. Mass spectra of several compounds and homologous mixtures of compounds isolated from the aromatic fraction are also given.     

The 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE‐2): meteorological and chemical context

A review is given of the climatological and actual meteorological conditions in the sub‐tropical northeast Atlantic, during June–July 1997, when the 2nd Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE‐2) took place. Surface pressure maps, trajectory calculations and in‐situ measurements show how the outflow of European pollution into the marine boundary layer of this area is determined by the location of the Azores high pressure cell. Observations during ACE‐2 and 3 preceding summers show that pollution outbreaks both from the Iberian peninsula and from northern or central Europe can occur during such situations. During ACE‐2, an unusually low number of strong North African dust outbreaks were recorded at the free tropospheric station of Izaña (Tenerife, 2360 m asl), although dust was recorded aloft the station.     

Heavy metal release by peat erosion in the Peak District,southern Pennines,UK

Upper North Grain (UNG) is a heavily eroding blanket peat catchment in the Peak District, southern Pennines, UK. Concentrations of lead in the near‐surface peat layer at UNG are in excess of 1000 mg kg⁻¹. For peatland environments, these lead concentrations are some of the highest globally. High concentrations of industrially derived, atmospherically transported magnetic spherules are also stored in the near‐surface peat layer. Samples of suspended sediment taken during a storm event that occurred on 1 November 2002 at UNG, and of the potential catchment sources for suspended sediments, were analysed for lead content and the environmental magnetic properties of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) and saturation isothermal remanent magnetization (SIRM). At the beginning of the storm event, there is a peak in both suspended sediment and associated lead concentration. SIRM/ARM values for suspended sediment samples throughout the storm reveal that the initial ‘lead flush’ is associated with a specific sediment source, namely that of organic sediment eroded from the upper peat layer. Using the magnetic ‘fingerprinting’ approach to discrimination of sediment sources, this study reveals that erosion of the upper peat layer at UNG is releasing high concentrations of industrially derived lead (and, by inference, other toxic heavy metals associated with industrial particulates) into the fluvial systems of the southern Pennines. Climate‐change scenarios for the UK, involving higher summer temperatures and stormier winters, may result in an increased flux both of sediment‐associated and dissolved heavy metals from eroding peatland catchments in the southern Pennines, adversely affecting the quality of sediment and water entering reservoirs of the region. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.