Five young star clusters in the outer region of the Small Magellanic Cloud

Colour–magnitude diagrams in the Washington system are presented for the first time for five star clusters projected on to the outer region of the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC). The clusters are found to have ages in the range 0.1–1.0 Gyr, as derived from the fit of isochrones with   Z = 0.004  . This sample increases substantially the number of young clusters in the outer SMC – particularly in the south-east quadrant – with well-derived parameters. We combine our results with those for other clusters in the literature to derive as large and homogeneous a data base as possible (totalling 49 clusters) in order to study global effects. We find no conclusive evidence for a dispersion in the cluster ages and metallicities as a function of their distance from the galaxy centre, in the SMC outer region. L 114 and 115, although very distant, are very young clusters, lying in the bridge of the SMC and therefore most likely formed during the interaction which formed this feature. We also find very good agreement between the cluster age–metallicity relation (AMR) and the prediction from a bursting model from Pagel & Tautvaišienė with a burst that occurred 3 Gyr ago. Comparing the present cluster AMR with that derived by Harris & Zaritsky for field stars in the main body of the SMC, we find that field stars and clusters underwent similar chemical enrichment histories during approximately the last couple of Gyr, but their chemical evolution was clearly different between 4 and 10 Gyr ago.     

On the long-term context of the 1997–2009 ‘Big Dry’ in South-Eastern Australia: insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction

This study presents the first multi-proxy reconstruction of rainfall variability from the mid-latitude region of south-eastern Australia (SEA). A skilful rainfall reconstruction for the 1783–1988 period was possible using twelve annually-resolved palaeoclimate records from the Australasian region. An innovative Monte Carlo calibration and verification technique is introduced to provide the robust uncertainty estimates needed for reliable climate reconstructions. Our ensemble median reconstruction captures 33% of inter-annual and 72% of decadal variations in instrumental SEA rainfall observations. We investigate the stability of regional SEA rainfall with large-scale circulation associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) over the past 206 years. We find evidence for a robust relationship with high SEA rainfall, ENSO and the IPO over the 1840–1988 period. These relationships break down in the late 18th–early 19th century, coinciding with a known period of equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling during one of the most severe periods of the Little Ice Age. In comparison to a markedly wetter late 18th/early 19th century containing 75% of sustained wet years, 70% of all reconstructed sustained dry years in SEA occur during the 20th century. In the context of the rainfall estimates introduced here, there is a 97.1% probability that the decadal rainfall anomaly recorded during the 1998–2008 ‘Big Dry’ is the worst experienced since the first European settlement of Australia.     

A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.     

Lithogeochemical localisation of disseminated gold in the White River area, Yukon, Canada

Gold mineralisation in the White River area, 80 km south of the highly productive Klondike alluvial goldfield, is hosted in amphibolite facies gneisses in the same Permian metamorphic pile as the basement for the Klondike goldfield. Hydrothermal fluid which introduced the gold was controlled by fracture systems associated with middle Cretaceous to early Tertiary extensional faults. Gold deposition occurred where highly fractured and chemically reactive rocks allowed intense water–rock interaction and hydrothermal alteration, with only minor development of quartz veins. Felsic gneisses were sericitised with recrystallisation of hematite and minor arsenic mobility, and extensively pyritised zones contain gold and minor arsenic (ca 10 ppm). Graphitic quartzites (up to 5 wt.% carbon) caused chemical reduction of mineralising fluids, with associated recrystallisation of metamorphic minerals (graphite, pyrrhotite, pyrite, chalcopyrite) in host rocks and veins, and introduction of arsenic (up to 1 wt.%) to form arsenopyrite in veins and disseminated through host rock. Veins have little or no hydrothermal quartz, and up to 19 wt.% carbon as graphite. Late-stage oxidation of arsenopyrite in some graphitic veins has formed pharmacosiderite. Gold is closely associated with disseminated and vein sulphides in these two rock types, with grades of up to 3 ppm on the metre scale. Other rock types in the White River basement rocks, including biotite gneiss, hornblende gneiss, pyroxenite, and serpentinite, have not developed through-going fracture systems because of their individual mineralogical and rheological characteristics, and hence have been little hydrothermally altered themselves, have little hydrothermal gold, and have restricted flow of fluids through the rock mass. Some small post-metamorphic quartz veins (metre scale) have been intensely fractured and contain abundant gold on fractures (up to 40 ppm), but these are volumetrically minor. The style of gold mineralisation in the White River area is younger than, and distinctly different from, that of the Klondike area. Some of the mineralised zones in the White River area resemble, mineralogically and geochemically, nearby coeval igneous-hosted gold deposits, but this resemblance is superficial only. The White River mineralisation is an entirely new style of Yukon gold deposit, in which host rocks control the mineralogy and geochemistry of disseminated gold, without quartz veins.     

The Relationship between Narratives,Wildlife Value Orientations,Attitudes, and Policy Preferences

Overabundance of white-tailed deer is a pervasive problem across the United States. Deer are blamed for increased risk of auto accidents, tick-borne diseases, and overbrowsing of native species. Lethal management techniques, cited as cost-effective and humane, are commonly employed for herd management. However, the approach frequently sparks outrage among various stakeholders who feel killing of animals is unjustified and prefer nonlethal measures. Wildlife managers then face the challenge of communicating with the public to build policy support for lethal management. The Narrative Policy Framework was used to test the effects of differing narratives on public opinion for lethal deer management. Results indicated narratives were influential in shifting attitudes toward and support for a proposed sharpshooting policy even in some cases where respondents were already familiar with the issue and held a previous opinion. This study also supported the utility of the Narrative Policy Framework for examining human dimensions of wildlife issues.     

Drainage, sediment transport, and denudation rates on the Nanga Parbat Himalaya, Pakistan

The Nanga Parbat Himalaya presents some of the greatest relief on Earth, yet sediment production and denudation rates have only been sporadically addressed. We utilized field measurements and computer models to estimate bank full discharge, sediment transport, and denudation rates for the Raikot and Buldar drainage basins (north slope of Nanga Parbat) and the upper reach of the Rupal drainage basin (south slope).The overall tasks of determining stream flow conditions in such a dynamic geomorphic setting is challenging. No gage data exist for these drainage basins, and the overall character of the drainage basins (high relief, steep flow gradients, and turbulent flow conditions) does not lend itself to either ready access or complete profiling.Cross-sectional profiles were surveyed through selected reaches of these drainage basins. These data were then incorporated into software (WinXSPRO) that aids in the characterization (stage, discharge, velocity, and shear stress) of high altitude, steep mountain stream conditions.Complete field measurements of channel depths were rarely possible (except at several bridges where the middle of the channel could actually be straddled and probed) and, when coupled with velocity measurements, provided discrete points of field-measured discharge calculations. These points were then used to calibrate WinXSPRO results for the same reach and provided a confidence level for computer-generated results.Flow calculations suggest that under near bank full conditions, the upper Raikot drainage basin produces discharges of 61 cm and moves about 11,000 tons day⁻¹ (9980 tons day⁻¹) of sediment through its channel. Bank full conditions on the upper portion of the Rupal drainage basin generate discharges of 84 cm and moves only about 3800 tons day⁻¹ (3450 tons day⁻¹) of sediment. Although the upper Rupal drainage basin moves more water, the lower slope of the drainage basin (0.03) generates a much smaller shear stress (461 Pa) than does the higher slope (0.12) of the upper Raikot drainage basin (1925 Pa).Dissolved and suspended sediment loads were measured from water/sediment samples collected throughout the day and night over a period of 10 days at the height of the summer melt season but proved to be a minor variable in transport flux. Channel bed loads were measured using a pebble count method of bank material and then used to generate ratings curves of bed loads relative to discharge volumes. When coupled with discharge data and basin area, mean annual sediment yield and denudation rates for Nanga Parbat are produced. Denudation rates calculated in this fashion range from 0.2 mm year⁻¹ in the slower, more sluggish Rupal drainage basin to almost 6 mm year⁻¹ in the steeper, faster flowing Raikot and Buldar drainage basins.     

Volcanic and Scientific Activity at Kick ’em Jenny Submarine Volcano 2001–2002: Implications for Volcanic Hazard in the Southern Grenadines,Lesser Antilles

Kick em Jenny submarine volcano, ~8 km north of Grenada, has erupted at least 12 times since it was first discovered in 1939, making it the most frequently active volcano in the Lesser Antilles arc. The volcano lies in shallow water close to significant population centres and directly beneath a major shipping route, and as a consequence an understanding of the eruptive behaviour and potential hazards at the volcano is critical. The most recent eruption at Kick em Jenny occurred on December 4 2001, and differed significantly from past eruptions in that it was preceded by an intensive volcanic earthquake swarm. In March 2002 a multi-beam bathymetric survey of the volcano and its surroundings was carried out by the NOAA ship Ronald H Brown. This survey provided detailed three-dimensional images of the volcano, revealing the detailed morphology of the summit area. The volcano is capped by a summit crater which is breached to the northeast and which varies in diameter from 300 to 370 m. The depth to the summit (highest point on the crater rim) is 185 m and the depth to the lowest point inside the crater is 264 m. No dome is present within the crater. The crater and summit region of Kick em Jenny are located at the top of an asymmetrical cone which is about 1300 m from top to bottom on its western side. It lies within what appear to be the remnants of a much larger arcuate collapse structure. An evaluation of the morphology, bathymetry and eruptive history of the volcano indicates that the threat of eruption-generated tsunamis is considerably lower than previously thought, mainly because the volcano is no longer thought to be growing towards the surface. Of more major and immediate concern are the direct hazards associated with the volcano, such as ballistic ejecta, water disturbances and lowered water density due to degassing.     

Modelling converted seismic waveforms in isotropic and anisotropic 1-D gradients: discontinuous versus continuous gradient representations

Over the past decade, there have been numerous receiver function studies directed at imaging the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB). Although it is generally accepted that receiver function phases observed in these studies are derived from physical mode conversions at depth within the lithosphere-asthenosphere transition, it is still debatable as to whether these phases are directly indicative of the LAB. This is because interpretation of receiver function LAB signals relies on understanding the elastic characteristics of the Earth??s outer thermal boundary layer. The main issues for receiver function imaging are the sharpness of the elastic material property transition and, more importantly, what specifically are the material gradients. To test the various transition models, a forward modelling approach is required that allows accurate waveform synthetics for a range of discontinuous and continuous gradients in anisotropic, elastic media. We present a derivation of the reflection and transmission response for continuous one-dimensional (1-D) gradients in generally anisotropic elastic media. We evaluate the influence of 1-D isotropic and anisotropic elastic gradients on the seismic waveform by comparing numerical results of models for discontinuous and continuous transitions. The results indicate that discontinuous representations using layers each with uniform parameters and with thicknesses on the order of approximately 1/3 to 1/8 of the dominant seismic wavelength can be used to accurately model P-to-S and S-to-P mode conversions due to continuous transitions of both isotropic and anisotropic elastic properties. From a practical point of view, when comparing synthetic modelling with observation, this constraint can be relaxed further. The presence of signal noise and/or the result of receiver function stacking techniques will likely obscure these subtle waveform e ff ects. Hence this study suggests that accurate synthetic waveforms for LAB transitions can be modelled with discontinuous gradient representations using a reasonable number of discrete transition layers with layer thicknesses no greater than 1/2 to 1/3 the dominant seismic wavelength.     

Magnitude–frequency relationships of debris flows and debris avalanches in relation to slope relief

Probability of occurrence, hazard intensity and encounter probability are key parameters in the quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of landslides. All are strongly dependent on magnitude of the landslides. As a result, magnitude–frequency analysis should be a part of QRA. Deriving representative magnitude–frequency relationships for debris avalanches and debris flows, however, is difficult. One key problem is illustrated with the example of a unique database from the coastal region of British Columbia, Canada, which was compiled entirely from detailed ground investigations. The magnitude of debris avalanches and debris flows is not an independent statistical quantity, but a function of the scale of a given slope, as characterized by the slope length. Thus, attempting to derive probability and magnitude for a given location or sub-region from a regionally-derived magnitude–frequency curve may lead to incorrect predictions. The same problem is pertinent to the application of the same approach to any type of landslide in which the largest combined dimension of the source volume (including entrainment) is of the same order as the length of the slope. It is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on site-specific geological observations, at the expense of generalized statistics.