鼓式土工离心机技术及其工程应用研究

20世纪90年代以来,离心机模型试验在岩土工程的研究和工程实践等方面的应用得到了显著的提高。研究者之所以把目光投向离心机,是因为相对于昂贵和未知的现场试验来说,用离心机模型试验要比现场试验更为优越。自从1978年剑桥大学Schofield首次利用鼓式离心机以来,它的应用研究越来越多。通过介绍鼓式离心机的主要结构、模型控制以及数据采集系统等主要特征参数,阐述了其在岩土工程应用中的优点。通过PCC桩的承载特性模型试验介绍了鼓式离心机在岩土工程中的应用。     

Forecasting skill of model averages

Given a collection of science-based computational models that all estimate states of the same environmental system, we compare the forecast skill of the average of the collection to the skills of the individual members. We illustrate our results through an analysis of regional climate model data and give general criteria for the average to perform more or less skillfully than the most skillful individual model, the “best” model. The average will only be more skillful than the best model if the individual models in the collection produce very different forecasts; if the individual forecasts generally agree, the average will not be as skillful as the best model.     

Late Cenozoic structural and stratigraphic evolution of the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland

Three successive zones of fault‐related folds disrupt the proximal part of the northern Tian Shan foreland in NW China. A new magnetostratigraphy of the Taxi He section on the north limb of the Tugulu anticline in the middle deformed zone clarifies the chronology of both tectonic deformation and depositional evolution of this collisional mountain belt. Our ～1200‐m‐thick section encompasses the upper Cenozoic terrigenous sequence within which ～300 sampling horizons yield an age span of ～8–2 Ma. Although the basal age in the Taxi He section of the Xiyu conglomerate (often cited as an indicator of initial deformation) is ～2.1 Ma, much earlier growth of the Tugulu anticline is inferred from growth strata dated at ～6.0 Ma. Folding of Neogene strata and angular unconformities in anticlines in the more proximal and distal deformed zones indicate deformation during Miocene and Early Pleistocene times, respectively. In the Taxi He area, sediment‐accumulation rates significantly accelerate at ～4 Ma, apparently in response to encroaching thrust loads. Together, growth strata, angular unconformities, and sediment‐accumulation rates document the northward migration of tectonic deformation into the northern Tian Shan foreland basin during the late Cenozoic. A progradational alluvial–lacustrine system associated with this northward progression is subdivided into two facies associations at Tugulu: a shallow lacustrine environment before ～5.9 Ma and an alluvial fan environment subsequently. The lithofacies progradation encompasses the time‐transgressive Xiyu conglomerate deposits, which should only be recognized as a lithostratigraphic unit. Along the length of the foreland, the locus of maximum shortening shifts between the medial and proximal zones of folding, whereas the total shortening across the foreland remains quite homogeneous along strike, suggesting spatially steady tectonic forcing since late Miocene times.     

Can bottom-up procedures improve the performance of stream classifications?

Top-down methods for defining stream classifications are based on a conceptual model or expert-defined rules, whereas bottom-up methods use biological training data and statistical modelling. We compared the performance of six classification methods for explaining the taxonomic composition of invertebrate and fish assemblages recorded at 327 and 511 sites, respectively, distributed throughout France. Classification 1 and 2 were top-down classifications; The European Water Framework System A (WFDa,) and the French Hydro-ecoregions (HER 2). Four bottom-up classification procedures of increasing complexity were defined based on 11 variables that included watershed characteristics describing climate, topography, and geology, and site characteristics including elevation, bed slope and temperature. Classification 3 was defined using matrix correlation (MC) to select a combination of variable categories that produced the best discrimination of the observed taxonomic composition. Classification 4 and 5 were defined by clustering the sites based on their taxonomic data and then using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and Random forests (RF) to discriminate the clusters based on the environmental variables. Classification 6 was defined using generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). Our hypothesis was that the bottom-up classifications would perform better because they flexibly accommodate complex relationships between compositional and environmental variation. We tested the classifications using the classification strength statistic (CS). The RF-based classification fitted the taxonomic patterns better than GDM or LDA and these latter classifications generally fitted better than the MC, WFDa or HER classifications. Cross validation analysis showed that differences in predictive CS (i.e. the CS statistics produced from sites not used in defining the classifications) were often significant. However, these differences were generally small. Gains in predictive performance of classifications appear to be small relative to the increase in complexity in the manner in which environmental variables are combined to define classes.     

Measurement of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in plastic resin pellets from remote islands: toward establishment of background concentrations for International Pellet Watch

Plastic resin pellets collected from remote islands in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean Sea were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichloro-diphenyltrichloroethane and its degradation products (DDTs), and hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs). Concentrations of PCBs (sum of 13 congeners) in the pellets were 0.1-9.9 ng/g-pellet. These were 1-3 orders of magnitude smaller than those observed in pellets from industrialized coastal shores. Concentrations of DDTs in the pellets were 0.8-4.1 ng/g-pellet. HCH concentrations were 0.6-1.7 ng/g-pellet, except for 19.3 ng/g-pellet on St. Helena, where current use of lindane is likely influence. This study provides background levels of POPs (PCBs<10 ng/g-pellet, DDTs <4 ng/g-pellet, HCHs <2 ng/g-pellet) for International Pellet Watch. Sporadic large concentrations of POPs were found in some pellet samples from remote islands and should be considered in future assessments of pollutants on plastic debris.     

Geomechanical property estimation of unconventional reservoirs using seismic data and rock physics

An extension of a previously developed rock physics model is made that quantifies the relationship between the ductile fraction of a brittle/ductile binary mixture and the isotropic seismic reflection response. By making a weak scattering (Born) approximation and plane wave (eikonal) approximation, with a subsequent ordering according to the angles of incidence, singular value decomposition analyses are performed to understand the stack weightings, number of stacks, and the type of stacks that will optimally estimate two fundamental rock physics parameters – the ductile fraction and the compaction and/or diagenesis. It is concluded that the full PP stack, i.e., sum of all PP offset traces, and the “full” PS stack, i.e., linear weighted sum of PS offset traces, are the two optimal stacks needed to estimate the two rock physics parameters. They dominate over both the second‐order amplitude variation offset “gradient” stack, which is a quadratically weighted sum of PP offset traces that is effectively the far offset traces minus the near offset traces, and the higher order fourth order PP stack (even at large angles of incidence). Using this result and model‐based Bayesian inversion, the seismic detectability of the ductile fraction (shown by others to be the important rock property for the geomechanical response of unconventional reservoir fracking) is demonstrated on a model characteristic of the Marcellus shale play.     

Characterization of complex fluvial systems using remote sensing of spatial and temporal water level variations in the Amazon,Congo, and Brahmaputra Rivers

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide global, space‐based estimates of water elevation, its temporal change, and its spatial slope in fluvial environments, as well as across lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, and floodplains. This paper illustrates the utility of existing remote sensing measurements of water temporal changes and spatial slope to characterize two complex fluvial environments. First, repeat‐pass interferometric SAR measurements from the Japanese Earth Resources Satellite are used to compare and contrast floodplain processes in the Amazon and Congo River basins. Measurements of temporal water level changes over the two areas reveal clearly different hydraulic processes at work. The Amazon is highly interconnected by floodplain channels, resulting in complex flow patterns. In contrast, the Congo does not show similar floodplain channels and the flow patterns are not well defined and have diffuse boundaries. During inundation, the Amazon floodplain often shows sharp hydraulic changes across floodplain channels. The Congo, however, does not show similar sharp changes during either infilling or evacuation. Second, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission measurements of water elevation are used to derive water slope over the braided Brahmaputra river system. In combination with in situ bathymetry measurements, water elevation and slope allow one to calculate discharge estimates within 2.3% accuracy. These two studies illustrate the utility of satellite‐based measurements of water elevation for characterizing complex fluvial environments, and highlight the potential of SWOT measurements for fluvial hydrology. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.