Rural community well-being: models and application to changes in the tobacco-belt in Ontario, Canada

In this paper we develop a model of changes in rural community well-being. The model conceptualizes four interrelated dimensions of rural community well-being: physical, psychological, social, and economic. The model recognizes that a range of external forces (political, economic, etc.) exert pressures on rural communities, of which changes in well-being are one outcome. The paper then applies the model to changes which occurred in the tobacco growing region of southern Ontario, Canada. It is argued that this region was impacted by a variety of forces, some general to farming, others specific to tobacco farming, particularly between 1979 and the early 1990s. The empirical application is based on a personally administered farm survey (n=63) conducted between July 1996 and January 1997 and agricultural census data for the years 1981, 1986, 1991, and 1996. The paper concludes by suggesting that the model provides a useful framework for analysing the forces and changing conditions of other rural communities, not only in Canada, but beyond.     

Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system

Assessing the skill of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in decadal hindcasts (i.e. retrospective predictions) is hampered by a lack of observations for verification. Models are therefore needed to reconstruct the historical AMOC variability. Here we show that ten recent oceanic syntheses provide a common signal of AMOC variability at 45°N, with an increase from the 1960s to the mid-1990s and a decrease thereafter although they disagree on the exact magnitude. This signal correlates with observed key processes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, sub-polar gyre strength, Atlantic sea surface temperature dipole, and Labrador Sea convection that are thought to be related to the AMOC. Furthermore, we find potential predictability of the mid-latitude AMOC for the first 3–6 year means when we validate decadal hindcasts for the past 50 years against the multi-model signal. However, this predictability is not found in models driven only by external radiative changes, demonstrating the need for initialization of decadal climate predictions.     

Subspace inversion of electromagnetic data: application to mid-ocean-ridge exploration

Controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) surveys have the ability to provide tomo-graphic images of electrical conductivity within the Earth. the interpretation of such data sets has long been hampered by inadequate modelling and inversion techniques. In this paper, a subspace inversion technique is described that allows electric dipole-dipole data to be inverted for a 2-D electrical conductivity model more efficiently than with existing techniques. the subspace technique is validated by comparison with conventional inversion methods and by inverting data collected over the East Pacific Rise in 1989. A model study indicates that, with adequate data, a variety of possible mid-ocean-ridge conductivity models could be distinguished on the basis of a CSEM survey.     

美国国家级干旱监测业务产品介绍

美国需要改进干旱监测与评估方法。干旱是代价昂贵的自然灾害(联邦应急管理局(FEMA),1995;W ilhite,2000),但经常被评估和预报产品的开发者忽略。相比于其他灾害,干旱表现得更模糊并且不适合用传统的评估或预报方法,它相对缓慢的发生以及其影响的复杂性,需要有一套新的方法来对它进行评估。干旱监测和预报技术的提高会使我们为应对干旱灾害做更好的准备工作,进行更好的应对实践,从而减少社会对干旱及其影响的脆弱性。为追踪和展示全美国干旱的程度、空间范围以及其影响,开发了新的干旱监测工具,研发了每周发布的国家级干旱监测业务产品(th…     

The Science and Policy of the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration

The restoration of tidal wetland and seagrass systems has the potential for significant greenhouse gas benefits, but project-level accounting procedures have not been available at an international scale. In this paper, we describe the Verified Carbon Standard Methodology for Tidal Wetland and Seagrass Restoration, which provides greenhouse gas accounting procedures for marsh, mangrove, tidal forested wetland, and seagrasses systems across a diversity of geomorphic conditions and restoration techniques. We discuss and critique the essential science and policy elements of the methodology and underlying knowledge gaps. We developed a method for estimating mineral-protected (recalcitrant) allochthonous carbon in tidal wetland systems using field-collected soils data and literature-derived default values of the recalcitrant carbon that accompanies mineral deposition. We provided default values for methane emissions from polyhaline soils but did not provide default values for freshwater, oligohaline, and mesohaline soils due to high variability of emissions in these systems. Additional topics covered are soil carbon sequestration default values, soil carbon fate following erosion, avoided losses in organic and mineral soils, nitrous oxide emissions, soil profile sampling methods, sample size, prescribed fire, additionality, and leakage. Knowledge gaps that limit the application of the methodology include the estimation of CH₄ emissions from fresh and brackish tidal wetlands, lack of validation of our approach for the estimation of recalcitrant allochthonous carbon, understanding of carbon oxidation rates following drainage of mineral tidal wetland soils, estimation of the effects of prescribed fire on soil carbon stocks, and the analysis of additionality for projects outside of the USA.     

Modelling discontinuity control on the development of Hell’s Mouth landslide

Landslides - This paper focuses on numerical modelling and back analysis of the Hell’s Mouth landslide to provide improved understanding of the evolution of a section of the north coast of...     

Controls on Block Toppling Using a Three-Dimensional Distinct Element Approach

Analysis methods for block toppling are most commonly undertaken in two dimensions. This paper investigates the influence of discontinuity orientations on three-dimensional block toppling mechanisms using a three-dimensional distinct element code. The three-dimensional models allow one to kinematically appraise if toppling conditions derived for two-dimensional geometries can be extended into three dimensions. Two conceptual model geometries were considered in order to represent a road cut or open-pit bench. The first geometry examined a slope with fixed vertical lateral boundaries, while the second geometry assumed an unrestrained lateral slope as a model boundary condition. This “along-strike slope profile” of the models was found to play an important role in the failure mechanism and displacement direction. The dip direction and dip angle of the toppling, basal and lateral release discontinuities were varied one at the time using angular ranges of up to 30° from an assumed mutual orthogonal relationship. This made it possible for the influence and importance of each discontinuity set to be independently evaluated. The results are presented in a stereographic format with preliminary zones outlining discontinuity aspect combinations that potentially result in block toppling failures.     

Evaluation of a gravel transport sensor for bed load measurements in natural flows

A recent acoustic instrument （Gravel Transport Sensor, GTS） was tested for predicting sediment transport rate （bed load rate） in gravel bed streams. The GTS operation is based on the particle collision theory of submerged obstacles in fluids. When particles collide with the GTS cylinder their momentum is recorded in the form of ping rates. The GTS is attractive for further consideration here because of its potential to provide continuous unattended local bed load measurements, especially in areas found in streams that access may be difficult under extreme conditions. Laboratory experiments coupled with numerical simulations for the same flow conditions were performed in order to determine the conditions under which particles of different size will hit the GTS cylinder and be able to register a ping rate. The GTS was able to detect the number of particles with diameter in the range of 15.9 to 25.4 mm, with reasonable accuracy, if the applied Shields effective stress τ＊e = τ＊ - τ＊cr was in the range of 0.006 to 0.015. A drawback of the tested prototype GTS, however, was that it exerted increased resistance on the incoming particles. The added drag effects increased the overall resistance that was exerted by the flow on particles and thus increased the likelihood that particles will rest in the ambient region of the cylinder instead of hitting it. Numerical simulation of the flow around the GTS cylinder revealed that changing the prototype geometry from cylindrical to ellipsoid or rhomboid will increase the likelihood of the particles hitting the instrument under the same flow conditions failed by the original tested GTS cylinder.     

Seasonal and tidal monthly patterns of particulate matter dynamics in the Columbia River estuary

We investigated seasonal and tidal-monthly, suspended particulate matter (SPM) dynamics in the Columbia River estuary from May to December 1997 using acoustic backscatter (ABS) and velocity data from four long-term Acoustic Doppler Profiler (ADP) moorings in or near the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM). ABS profiles were calibrated and converted to total SPM profiles using pumped SPM samples and optical backscatter (OBS) data obtained during three seasonal cruises. Four characteristic settling velocity (W _s) classes were defined from Owen Tube samples collected during the cruises. An inverse analysis, in the form of a non-negative least squares minimization, was used to determine the contribution of the four,W _s-classes to each, total SPM profile. The outputs from the inverse analyses were 6–8 mo time-series ofW _s-specific SPM concentration and transport profiles at each mooring. The profiles extended from the free surface to 1.8–2.7 m from the bed, with 0.25–0.50 m resolution. These time series, along with Owen Tube results and disaggregated size data, were used to investigate SPM dynamics. Three non-dimensional parameters were defined to investigate how river flow and tidal forcing affect particle trapping: Rouse numberP (balance between vertical mixing and settling) trapping efficiencyE (ratio of maximum SPM concentration in the estuary to fluvial source concentration), and advection numberA (ratio of height of maximum SPM concentration to friction velocity). The most effective particle trapping (maximum values ofE) occurs on low-flow neap tides. The location of the ETM and the maximal trapping migrated seasonally in a manner consistent with the increase in salinity intrusion length after the spring freshet. Maximum advection (high values ofA) occurred during highly stratified neap tides.