基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估模型

将多智能体建模方法引入灾害风险评估领域,以期为灾害风险评估开拓新的研究思路.区别于一般静态评估模型,基于多智能体的风险评估模型自下而上,从微观上建立灾害系统各要素之间的相互关系,在多风险情景下,仿真模拟灾害系统状态的变化,以实现动态的风险评估.在理解多智能体建模的一般原理的基础上,设计了基于多智能体的自然灾害动态风险评估的总体模型和主要智能体的结构,并总结了多智能建模在风险评估方面的优势.     

武汉遥测台网地震记录中小爆破的判据研究

主要研究武汉地区小当量爆破(即矿山爆破)事件与小震级(ML 2.0左右)地震事件的识别与判据.     

新沂地震台新建地电场观测资料分析

分析了由于观测系统故障、电阻率测量、雷电、降水及人类活动等因素,造成地电场观测资料质量降低的客观现象,并对地电场观测各物理量之间的关系进行相关论证,提出异常分析方法,结果表明：新沂台地电场观测数据能真实反映观测场地的客观变化,排除各类影响因素,其观测精度很高。     

不同高程基准位差计算的严密理论研究

高程基准是大地测量参考框架的重要组成部分,也是数字地球基础框架的重要内容.但目前各个国家或地区使用的大多是局部高程基准,这严重影响了地球信息数据的全球共享机制.本文利用高程基准与重力位之间的关系,推导了不同高程系统之间的严密位差计算公式和近似计算公式.该理论将为我国和全球高程基准的统一提供理论支持.     

陷落柱地震波场特征分析

以典型的圆锥形陷落柱构建模型,采用声波方程对其地震波场响应进行模拟.分别从炮点位于陷落柱顶以及位于陷落柱顶一侧较近的两种情况对陷落柱地震波场特征进行细致分析.我们认识到了陷落柱柱壁绕射是陷落柱地震响应的重要特征.陷落柱的"反射--透射波"以及"透射--反射波"可成为识别陷落柱的重要标志.     

Frictional sliding in serpentine at very high pressure

Using a new four-channel system for detecting acoustic emissions in a multianvil apparatus, we have assessed the pressure–temperature range for such emissions, as well as the role of dehydration, by deforming samples of extensively serpentinized peridotite. We show that in the absence of dehydration and for samples initially faulted at low pressure, acoustic emissions occurred well outside the expected pressure–temperature field of unassisted brittle failure. Emissions were also detected during and after dehydration of serpentine. Microstructures of post-run specimens revealed fault slip with offsets up to ~ 500 μm, regardless of whether or not dehydration took place. Dehydration appears to effectively stop slip on pre-existing faults and create new ones. Analysis of P-wave travel times from the four sensors confirmed that the acoustic emissions originated within the specimen during fault slip. These observations suggest that earthquakes can be triggered by slip along an existing fault containing serpentine under significantly higher pressure and temperature conditions than previously thought possible without dehydration.     

曲线拟合法对路基小变形情形适用性研究

双曲线法、三点法、指数曲线法和Asaoka法等曲线拟合法在软土路基的沉降预测中已经得到广泛应用,但在路基小变形情形的应用研究尚少。结合某铁路客运专线施工现场观测的路基小变形数据,对这4种方法,探讨了时间起点和样本值的起止时间间隔对相关系数的影响,且验算后期观测值的预测效果;并综合考虑了相关系数和相对误差,研究每种方法的适用性;指出了4种拟合方法在路基小变形情形应用的优缺点。研究表明：数据的波动会造成指数曲线法无法计算;沉降数据波动较小时,双曲线法、三点法、Asaoka法的拟合效果均较好;当沉降数据波动较大时,仅三点法、Asaoka法的拟合效果较好,双曲线法较差。     

自然与人文交互作用下的干旱区典型绿洲耕地动态变化驱动力分析——以新疆于田绿洲为例

 绿洲是干旱区独特的自然景观,是人们生产生活的载体。如何在保持经济发展、提高人民生活水平的基础上保护有限的耕地资源,是关系到干旱区绿洲和谐以及可持续发展的重要问题。选取干旱区典型绿洲——于田县1949\_2004年的自然与人文统计资料,首先分析了五十余年来该县耕地变化的情况。然后从自然与人文两个角度对影响耕地面积变化的因子进行分析,结果表明,自然因素往往构成一定区域绿洲发展的基本限制,人为因素在短时期内,对耕地的变化起着决定性作用,这种作用如果顺应自然因素的限制,则对绿洲发展有利,绿洲稳定性增强;反之,绿洲稳定性减弱,由于新疆绿洲外围多为戈壁及沙漠,因此,对绿洲的利用要遵循自然规律,以保护绿洲为前提,合理利用水等自然资源,否则绿洲的面积随时都有可能缩小。     

Vertical characteristics revealed by biweekly and synoptic variability of upper sea temperature in the northern South China Sea

On the basis of the analysis of the sea temperature data that are observed from the three automatic temperature line acquisition sysem mooring buoys deployed in the central South China Sea (SCS) during South China Sea monsoon experiment, vertical features of biweekly and synoptic variability are discussed. There are five vertical modes, that is, subsurface temperature variability is in phase with,out of phase with, leads to, lags the surface temperature variability, and at depths within the subsurface layer the upper and lower temperature variations are out of phase. The formation of these vertical modes is related to the property of low-level atmospheric forcing and to the background in atmosphere and ocean. Wind stress curl is the main driving factor in forming Modes 1 and 3, and wind stresses in forming Modes 2 and 4.     

Arctic oscillation and the antarcic oscillation modes in the atmospheric stratosphere

1IntroductionThompson and Wallace(1998)first found the AOin1998and according to their definition,the spatialpattern of AO from the first EOF mode for the sea lev-el air-pressure(SLP)was that around the North Poleregion there was an oscillation out-of-phase with thatat the mid-latitudes zone.This oscillation had verywide frequency range from interannual to interdecadaltime scales.The AO is similar to the North Atlantic oscilla-tion(NAO)over the Atlantic.As Wallace said,theNAO could be…