Assessing climate change vulnerability with group multi-criteria decision making approaches

This study developed an approach to assess the vulnerability to climate change and variability using various group multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods and identified the sources of uncertainty in assessments. MCDM methods include the weighted sum method, one of the most common MCDM methods, the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS), fuzzy-based TOPSIS, TOPSIS in a group-decision environment, and TOPSIS combined with the voting methods (Borda count and Copeland’s methods). The approach was applied to a water-resource system in South Korea, and the assessment was performed at the province level by categorizing water resources into water supply and conservation, flood control and water-quality sectors according to their management objectives. Key indicators for each category were profiled with the Delphi surveys, a series of questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback. The sectoral vulnerability scores were further aggregated into one composite score for water-resource vulnerability. Rankings among different MCDM methods varied in different degrees, but noticeable differences in the rankings from the fuzzy- and non-fuzzy-based methods suggested that the uncertainty with crisp data, rather widely used, should be acknowledged in vulnerability assessment. Also rankings from the voting-based methods did not differ much from those from non-voting-based (i.e., average-based) methods. Vulnerability rankings varied significantly among the different sectors of the water-resource systems, highlighting the need to assess the vulnerability of water-resource systems according to objectives, even though one composite index is often used for simplicity.     

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.     

安徽闪电与雷达资料的相关分析以及机理初探

WSR-98D多普勒天气雷达和新型闪电定位仪是监测灾害性天气十分有效的手段,利用合肥多普勒天气雷达的物理量产品和中国科技大学研制的新型闪电定位仪资料,对2001年7月24日、2002年5月27日、2004年4月6日发生在安徽省的冰雹和强降水的3次天气过程的闪电与雷达回波特征做相关性分析和机理初探,发现一些有意义的统计规律：（1） 闪电发生的数目和变化与回波顶高（ET）有较好的对应关系, 而与垂直含水量积分（VIL）对应关系不明显;（2） 强对流天气的云地闪中正地闪与负地闪发生频次相当,甚至超过负地闪,但正地闪比较分散,负地闪比较集中,闪电发生的位置与强回波位置不一致,云下一般存在一个次正电荷层;（3） 强降水天气的负地闪占优势,闪电发生的位置比较集中并且与强回波位置一致,云下没有正电荷层;（4） 垂直累积液态水含量（VIL）和回波顶（ET）很小处出现的闪电是由云砧和对流云分裂的碎云产生的.     

利用远震接收函数研究黄海周边地区的地壳上地幔结构

利用宽频带流动台站(YSBSN)记录的远震波形数据和远震接收函数方法,反演了黄海东、西两侧地壳上地幔的S波速度结构.结果表明,莫霍面深度在30~38 km之间变化,位于中方一侧的JNN台下方地壳厚度最大,可以归因于华北板块和扬子板块的碰撞;韩方一侧的地壳厚度自北向南逐渐变厚,但仍然难以厘定朝鲜半岛南部潜在碰撞带的位置,这些问题的解决需要更大范围的流动台站观测.由于部分台站位于巨厚的沉积层和多孔的火山岩之上,与浅部构造的相关性使得接收函数表现出较大振幅的混响,从而影响了来自深部结构的转换震相.     

Global warming,low-frequency variability,and biennial oscillation: an attempt to understand the physical mechanisms driving major ENSO events

Three primary global modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the period of 1871–2010 are identified through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis. The first mode exhibits a clear trend and represents global SST warming with an ‘El Niño-like’ SST pattern in the tropical Pacific. The second mode is characterized by considerable low-frequency variability in both the tropical Pacific and the North Pacific regions, indicating that there is a close connection between the two regions on interannual and decadal time scales. The third mode shows a seesaw pattern between El Niño and La Niña within a two-year period; this mode is derived by the oscillatory tendency of the tropical Pacific ocean–atmosphere coupled system. A SST reconstruction based on these three modes captures a significant portion of the SST variability in the raw data, which is primarily associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the tropical Pacific. Additionally, this study attempts to interpret the major ENSO events that have occurred since the 1970s in terms of the interplay originating from these three modes of variability. In particular, two key points are derived from this analysis: (1) the most extreme El Niño events occurred in 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 are attributed to the positive contributions of all three modes; and (2) the central Pacific (CP) El Niño events in the 1990s and 2000s have different physical mechanisms, that is, the CP El Niño events in the early 1990s originated mainly from the low-frequency mode, while those in the early 2000s derived mainly from the global warming mode.     

Examining potential genetic links between Jurassic porphyry Cu–Au ± Mo and epithermal Au ± Ag mineralization in the Toodoggone district of North-Central British Columbia,Canada

The Toodoggone district comprises Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic Hazelton Group Toodoggone Formation volcanic and sedimentary rocks, which unconformably overlie submarine island-arc volcanic and sedimentary rocks of the Lower Permian Asitka Group and Middle Triassic Takla Group, some of which are intruded by Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic plutons and dikes of the Black Lake suite. Although plutonism occurred episodically from ca. 218 to 191 Ma, the largest porphyry Cu–Au ± Mo systems formed from ca. 202 to 197 Ma, with minor mineralization occurring from ca. 197 to 194 Ma. Porphyry-style mineralization is hosted by small-volume (<1 km³), single-phase, porphyritic igneous stocks or dikes that have high-K calc-alkaline compositions and are comparable with volcanic-arc granites. The Fin porphyry Cu–Au–Mo deposit is anomalous in that it is 16 m.y. older than any other porphyry Cu–Au ± Mo occurrence in the district and has lower REEs. All porphyry systems are spatially restricted to exposed Asitka and Takla Group basement rocks, and rarely, the lowest member of the Hazelton Group (i.e., the ca. 201 Ma Duncan Member). The basement rocks to intrusions are best exposed in the southern half of the district, where high rates of erosion and uplift have resulted in their preferential exposure. In contrast, low- and high-sulfidation epithermal systems are more numerous in the northern half of the district, where the overlying Hazelton Group rocks dominate exposures. Cogenetic porphyry systems might also exist in the northern areas; however, if they are present, they are likely to be buried deeply beneath Hazelton Group rocks. High-sulfidation epithermal systems formed at ca. 201 to 182 Ma, whereas low-sulfidation systems were active at ca. 192 to 162 Ma. Amongst the studied epithermal systems, the Baker low-sulfidation epithermal deposit displays the strongest demonstrable genetic link with magmatic fluids; fluid inclusion studies demonstrate that its ore fluids were hot (>468°C), saline, and deposited metals at deep crustal depths (>2 km). Sulfur, C, O, and Pb isotope data confirm the involvement of a magmatic fluid, but also suggest that the ore fluid interacted with Asitka and Takla Group country rocks prior to metal deposition. In contrast, in the Shasta, Lawyers, and Griz-Sickle low-sulfidation epithermal systems, there is no clear association with magmatic fluids. Instead, their fluid inclusion data indicate the involvement of low-temperature (175 to 335°C), low-salinity (1 to 11 equiv. wt.% NaCl) fluids that deposited metals at shallow depths (<850 m). Their isotope (i.e., O, H, Pb) data suggest interaction between meteoric and/or metamorphic ore fluids with basement country rocks.     

Distribution of chaetognaths (Aphragmophora: Sagittidae) in Korean waters

The distribution of chaetognaths was investigated at 10 stations in the southern part of Korean waters (line S), at six stations in the eastern part of Korean waters (line E) and at 8 stations in the western part of Korean waters (line W). Ten species were present at the stations at line S and Flaccisagitta enflata and Zonosagitta bedoti were dominant among these species. Mean densities at line S ranged from 7 inds.m^-3 to 27 inds.m^-3. Five chaetognath species were found at the stations at line E and Zonosagitta nagae and Parasagitta elegans were the most abundant. Mean densities ranged from 1 to 10 inds.m-3. Four chaetognath species were present at line W and Aidanosagitta crassa and chaetognath juveniles were dominant in this line. Mean densities ranged from 21 to 199 inds.m^-3. The density of chaetognaths was highest at line W while the diversity of chaetognaths was highest at line S. Individuals of chaetognaths were divided into two groups, a group of line E and a mixed group of lines W and E. This study suggests that F. enflata is a warm water species; Z. nagae is a mixed water species; P. elegans is a cold water species; and A. crassa is a less saline water species. The mtCOI of F. enflata, which was a dominant species in the sampling area, was analyzed. F. enflata that are present in waters around Korean were genetically divided into two groups, which may be influenced by various oceanic factors.     

Amphibole Ar/Ar Geochronology from the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt, South Korea and its Tectonic Implications

An understanding of the Okcheon Metamorphic Belt (OMB) in South Korea is central to unraveling the tectono-metamorphic evolution of East Asia. Amphibole-bearing rocks in the OMB occur as calcsilicate layers and lenses in psammitic rocks, in the psammitic rocks themselves, and in the mafic volcanic layers and intrusives. Most amphiboles fail to show ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar plateau ages; those that do have ages ranging from 132 to 975 Ma. The disturbed age pattern and wide variation in ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages can be related to metamorphic grade, retrograde chemical reactions, excess Ar and amphibole composition. The oldest age (975 Ma) can be interpreted either as an old igneous or metamorphic age predating sedimentation or a false age caused by excess Ar. The youngest age of 132 Ma and the disturbed age pattern found in amphiboles from rocks located close to Jurassic granitoids are the result of retrograde thermal metamorphic effects accompanying intrusion of the granitoids. Some medium- or coarse-grained amphiboles in the calcsilicates are aggregates of fine-grained crystals. As a result, they are heterogeneous and prove to be readily affected by excess Ar. A disturbed age pattern in amphiboles from the calcsilicates occurring in the high-grade metamorphic zone may also be the product of excess Ar. On the other hand, the disturbed pattern of amphiboles present in the calcsilicates from the low-grade metamorphic zone could arise from both excess Ar and mixed ages. However, amphiboles from psammitic rocks and some calcsilicates in the high-grade metamorphic zone and in intrusive metabasites display real plateau ages of 237 to 261 Ma. The temperature conditions in the high-grade metamorphic zone were higher than the argon closing temperature for amphibole, and the amphiboles in this zone give plateau ages only when they are homogeneous in composition, lack excess Ar, and have not been thermally affected by intrusion of the granitoids. The unmodified ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages prove rather younger than the age of the Late Paleozoic metamorphic event of 280 to 300 Ma, but they are close to muscovite K-Ar ages of 263 to 277 Ma. These ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages are interpreted as the time of cooling that followed the main regional, intermediate-P/T metamorphic climax. The results demonstrate that interpretation of ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar amphibole ages in an area subjected to several metamorphic events can be accomplished only by undertaking a thorough tectono-metamorphic study, accompanied by detailed chemical analysis of the amphiboles.     

Attenuation of landfill leachate at two uncontrolled landfills

Attenuation characteristics of landfill leachate were examined for two uncontrolled landfills in Korea. The two landfills containing municipal wastes without appropriate bottom liner and leachate treatment system have different landfill age, waste volume, and most importantly different hydrogeologic settings. One landfill (Cheonan landfill) is situated in an open flat area while the other (Wonju landfill) is located in a valley. Variations of various parameters including dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), alkalinity, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), redox potential (ORP), ammonia (NH₃), nitrate (NO₃⁻), sulfate (SO₄²⁻), and chloride (Cl⁻) were examined along groundwater flow path. All these parameters were analyzed every month for a year. In the interior of the landfills, typical anaerobic conditions revealed by low DO and NO₃ concentrations, negative ORP values, high NH₃, alkalinity, and Cl⁻ concentrations were observed. Generally, higher levels of contaminants (DOC, NH₃, and Cl⁻) were detected in the dry season while they were greatly lowered in the wet season. Significantly, large decrease of Cl^- concentration in the wet season indicates that the dilution or mixing is one of dominant attenuation mechanisms of leachate. But detailed variation behaviors in the two landfills are different and they were largely dependent on permeability of surface and subsurface layers. The intermediately permeable surface of the landfills receives part of direct rainfall infiltration but most rainwater is lost to fast runoff. The practically impermeable surface of clayey silt (paddy field) at immediately adjacent to the Cheonan landfill boundary prevented direct rainwater infiltration and hence redox condition of the ground waters were largely affected by that of the upper landfill and the less permeable materials beneath the paddy fields prohibited dispersion of the landfill leachate into down gradient area. In the Wonju landfill, there are three different permeability divisions, the landfill region, the sandy open field and the paddy field. Roles of the landfill and paddy regions are very similar to those at the Cheonan. The very permeable sandy field receiving a large amount of rainwater infiltration plays a key role in controlling redox condition of the down gradient area and contaminant migration. This paper reports details of the attenuation and redox conditions of the landfill leachates at the two uncontrolled landfills.