Challenges in global ballast water management

Ballast water management is a complex issue raising the challenge of merging international regulations, ship's specific configurations along with ecological conservation. This complexity is illustrated in this paper by considering ballast water volume, discharge frequency, ship safety and operational issues aligned with regional characteristics to address ecological risk for selected routes. A re-estimation of ballast water volumes gives a global annual level of 3500 Mton. Global ballast water volume discharged into open sea originating from ballast water exchange operations is estimated to approximately 2800 Mton. Risk based decision support systems coupled to databases for different ports and invasive species characteristics and distributions can allow for differentiated treatment levels while maintaining low risk levels. On certain routes, the risk is estimated to be unacceptable and some kind of ballast water treatment or management should be applied.     

Analysis of Wedge Stability Using Different Methods

Summary The stability problem of a rock slope containing a wedge resting on two intersecting discontinuities is of great interest in rock slope engineering. It is a statistically indeterminate problem with two extra unknowns according to the force (stress) equilibrium analysis. The widely used limit equilibrium methods in practice assume that the directions of the shear forces acting on the two discontinuities are parallel to their line of intersection. The validity of this assumption, however, has not been verified theoretically. This paper presents a general limit equilibrium method that determines the directions of the shear forces by using Pans Maximum principle and an upper bound method that applies the classic upper bound theorem of limit analysis to avoid making extra assumptions. The formulations of the two methods are derived. A non-symmetric wedge and a symmetric wedge are analyzed using the two derived methods. To further explore the influence on stability due to the direction of the shear force acting on the two discontinuities, three-dimensional finite-element analyses are also conducted. The results are compared and discussed.     

Composition and exhalation flux of gases from mud volcanoes in Taiwan

Many mud volcanoes are distributed along the tectonic sutures in southern Taiwan and can be divided into five zones based on their relative positions in different tectonic domains. Most active mud volcanoes are exhaling methane-dominated gases. Nevertheless, some gases show unusual carbon dioxide-dominated and/or nitrogen-excess compositions. This implies that there are multiple sources for the gas compositions of mud volcanoes in Taiwan.For better understanding the total amount of exhalation gases and its flux, the gas flow and compositions were continuously measured in the interval of two minutes at Chung-lun (CL) bubbling mud pool for a few months. The major compositions of gases exhaling from this site were 75~90% of CO₂ and 5~12% of CH₄. The amount of gases exhaling from the mud pool can be estimated to be about 1.4 ton/year for CH₄ and 28 ton/year for CO₂, respectively. The preliminary results of exhaling gas flux from the major vents of representative active mud volcanoes, yielded an estimated total CH₄ output of the mud volcanoes in Taiwan of ca. 29 ton/year during quiescent period.     

A sediment quality triad assessment of the impact of copper mine tailings disposal on the littoral sedimentary environment in the Atacama region of northern Chile

A sediment quality triad (SQT) assessment was made of the impact of copper mine tailings disposal on littoral meiofaunal assemblages in the Atacama region of northern Chile. This situation is unusual in that the disposal is direct into the high-energy coastal system and not via a river estuary or other low-energy environment. This situation also allows for the examination of the impact of copper mine tailings in the absence of confounding effects from other pollutants. The three components of the SQT were: 1. an analysis of the bioavailable metals in both the sedimentary porewater and the adjacent seawater, 2. a microcosm bioassay of both sediments and seawaters using meiofaunal assemblages, and 3. quantitative field samples of the meiofaunal assemblages. Twelve study sites with varying degrees of impact were used, including three reference sites. The study identified that both the meiofaunal assemblage densities and taxa diversities decrease with increasing levels of bioavailable copper, that the Foraminifera and Harpacticoida are sensitive to copper, and that otoplanid Turbellaria are often characteristic of impacted sites; tailings also have both chemical and physical impacts on the environment. In some cases the physical impact of tailings is more important in excluding some organisms e.g. the interstitial polychaete, Saccocirrus sonomacus, from a site than is their chemical impact.     

Factors affecting outbreaks of high-density Cochlodinium polykrikoides red tides in the coastal seawaters around Yeosu and Tongyeong, Korea

Red tides caused by the dinoflagellate Cochlodinium polykrikoides occur annually in coastal waters of Korea, causing significant damage. A distinguishing characteristic of C. polykrikoides red tides is that they develop and persist in the open sea, where the water is comparatively clean with little contamination from the shore. We examined the causes of and key nutrients involved in high-density C. polykrikoides red tide outbreaks in the coastal seawaters around Yeosu and Tongyeong, Korea. High-density C. polykrikoides red tides occur in the coastal areas of Geomo Island, where freshwater flows into the sea after heavy rainfall events. Red tides are widespread in years when rainfall is heavy. The maximum concentration of C. polykrikoides and the duration of the red tides increase with increasing rainfall. Adding nitrogen and Seomjin River water to cultures of C. polykrikoides also increases biomass production and cell density of C. polykrikoides remarkably increased after heavy rainfall events. The occurrence of high concentrations of C. polykrikoides along the shores of Yeosu and Tongyeong seems to result from rainfall-initiated inflows of high concentrations of nitrate secondarily, after a conducive physical and chemical open-water environment has been established for C. polykrikoides to spread initially.     

Laboratory investigation of the effects of mineral size and concentration on the formation of oil-mineral aggregates

Controlled laboratory studies of the formation of oil-mineral aggregates (OMA) in seawater demonstrate that sediment concentration and sediment size are key variables for determining the quantity of oil droplets stabilised by OMA formation. Experiments with a single sediment size and a range of sediment concentrations show that as sediment concentration increases, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA increases abruptly. In experiments with a single sediment concentration and a range of sediment sizes, the quantity of oil trapped in OMA decreases as sediment size increases. These results provide direct support to the hypothesis that there is a critical sediment concentration for OMA formation. Below this concentration, stabilisation of oil droplets by OMA decreases rapidly, while above this concentration, stabilisation is extensive. The results also support simple geometric models of OMA formation that predict that the critical sediment mass concentration increases linearly with sediment particle diameter. These results will help to place quantitative constraint on predictions of where and when OMA formation will be a factor in the natural dispersal of oil accidentally spilled into the ocean.     

The effects of spatial autoregressive dependencies on inference in ordinary least squares: a geometric approach

There is a common belief that the presence of residual spatial autocorrelation in ordinary least squares (OLS) regression leads to inflated significance levels in beta coefficients and, in particular, inflated levels relative to the more efficient spatial error model (SEM). However, our simulations show that this is not always the case. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine this question from a geometric viewpoint. The key idea is to characterize the OLS test statistic in terms of angle cosines and examine the geometric implications of this characterization. Our first result is to show that if the explanatory variables in the regression exhibit no spatial autocorrelation, then the distribution of test statistics for individual beta coefficients in OLS is independent of any spatial autocorrelation in the error term. Hence, inferences about betas exhibit all the optimality properties of the classic uncorrelated error case. However, a second more important series of results show that if spatial autocorrelation is present in both the dependent and explanatory variables, then the conventional wisdom is correct. In particular, even when an explanatory variable is statistically independent of the dependent variable, such joint spatial dependencies tend to produce “spurious correlation” that results in over-rejection of the null hypothesis. The underlying geometric nature of this problem is clarified by illustrative examples. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of some possible remedies for this problem.     

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Water Vapour and Carbon Dioxide Isotopes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer

A large-eddy simulation model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is extended to simulate the transport and diffusion of C¹⁸OO, H₂¹⁸O and ¹³CO₂ in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). The simulation results show that the ¹⁸O compositions of leaf water and the ABL CO₂ are moderately sensitive to wind speed. The variations in the ¹⁸O composition of water vapour are an order of magnitude greater than those in the ¹³C and ¹⁸O compositions of CO₂ both at turbulent eddy scales and across the capping inversion. In a fully-developed convective ABL, these isotopic compositions are well mixed as with other conserved atmospheric quantities. The Keeling intercepts determined with the simulated high-frequency turbulence time series do not give a reliable estimate of the ¹⁸O composition of the surface water vapour flux and may be a reasonable approximation to the ¹³C and ¹⁸O compositions of the surface CO₂ flux in the late afternoon only after a deep convective ABL has developed. We suggest that our isotopic large-eddy simulation (ISOLES) model should be a useful tool for testing and formulating research hypotheses on land–air isotopic exchanges.     

Assessment of the changes in extreme vulnerability over East Asia due to global warming

A number of indices have been employed to describe weather extremes on the basis of climate regimes and public concerns. In this study, we combined these traditional indices into four groups according to whether they relate to warm (T_warm), cold (T_cold), wet (P_wet), or dry (P_dry) extremes. Analysis of the combined indices calculated for the daily temperatures and precipitation at 750 meteorological stations in Korea, China, and Japan for 1960s?C2000s shows increasing trends in T_warm and P_dry events and decreasing trends in T_cold events in recent decades, particularly in the northern part of East Asia. A notable regional variation is an increase in the P_wet events in the Korean Peninsula. We applied the same analysis to a 200-year global climate model simulation for 1900?C2099 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate System Model 3. During the 20th century, the changes in T_warm and T_cold calculated from the model data are largely consistent with those calculated from the observations, especially in northern East Asia. The model projections for the 21st century indicate statistically significant increasing T_warm and decreasing T_cold trends in extreme events over the region. Results obtained from historical archives and model simulations using our combined weather extreme indices suggest that northern East Asia will be subject to increased warm and dry extremes and the Korea Peninsula will experience more wet extremes.     

The influences of interannual stratification variability and wind stress forcing on ENSO before and after the 1976 climate shift

In order to understand the change in oceanic variability associated with the climate shift of the mid-1970s, we analyze the contribution of momentum forcing to the leading baroclinic modes over the tropical Pacific using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version 2.0.2) for the period of 1958–1997. Specifically, we look at the statistical relationship between the wind projection coefficients and climate indices and attempt to provide a physical explanation for the observed changes. It is found that the wind stress projection coefficients according to the oceanic baroclinic modes are different in terms of their magnitude and phase in the tropical Pacific, reflecting a specific forcing associated with each mode before and after the 1976 climate shift. Compared to that before the 1970s, the first baroclinic mode is had a greater effect on the interannual sea surface temperature due to equatorial wave dynamics, and there was an increased delayed response of the second baroclinic mode variability to the interannual atmospheric forcing after the late 1970s. This reflects changes in ENSO feedback processes associated with the climate shift. Our analysis further indicates that, after the late 1970s, there was a decrease in the wind stress forcing projecting onto the Ekman layer, which is associated with increased mixed-layer depth. This result suggests that the changes in the ENSO properties before and after the late 1970s are largely associated with the changes in the way in which the wind stress forcing is dynamically projected onto the surface layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean over interannual timescales.