Ecosystem responses to climate change in a large on-river reservoir, Lake Paldang, Korea

The impact of climate change on a large river reservoir ecosystem was investigated. Long-term meteorological data showed that recent climate change, including warmer winters, increased precipitation intensity and extended dry periods, may have influenced the basin of Lake Paldang, the most downstream reservoir of a series of on-river reservoirs. Extreme hydrologic events and climate warming, acting independently and in combination, appear to be related to changes in the Lake Paldang ecosystem. A significant increase in chlorophyll a concentrations in early spring corresponded to the timing of ice break-up. An increase in winter temperatures, which resulted in a shorter time period of ice-cover and earlier ice break-up, appears to have stimulated phytoplankton growth in winter and early spring. Repeated intensive and extended influxes of turbid water, associated with more frequent extreme rainfall events, have increased concentration of suspended solids and may have influenced the biotic community structure of Lake Paldang. In the mid-2000s, the area vegetated by submerged hydrophytes, the abundance and biomass of the phylum Mollusca, as well as the abundance of fish from the subfamily Acheilognathinae, which spawn in the body of bivalve molluscs, was all smaller than in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Together, these results suggest that climate change may have contributed directly and indirectly to changes in each trophic level of the Lake Paldang ecosystem.     

H 187 - At the Onset of a New Eclipse

CCD photometry data of the T Tauri star H 187 are presented. They show that a new eclipse of this star began at the end of 2004. Since only one eclipse of this star has been observed previously with a duration of 3.5 years, our data indicate that the eclipses of this object are periodic with a period P=4.9 years between eclipses. Thus, in terms of the absolute duration of the eclipses and in terms of their relative length as a fraction of the period, H 187 is one of the most exotic objects in the sky. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 4, pp. 529–534 (November 2005).     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Assessment of Surface Ecological Quality of Grassland Mining Area and Identification of Its Impact Range

Natural Resources Research - High-intensity coal mining in grasslands has negative impact on the surface ecology of the mining area and its surroundings. This impact shows spatio-temporal...     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

Proton flux and radiation dose from galactic cosmic rays in the lunar regolith and implications for organic synthesis at the poles of the Moon and Mercury

Galactic cosmic rays are a potential energy source to stimulate organic synthesis from simple ices. The recent detection of organic molecules at the polar regions of the Moon by LCROSS (Colaprete, A. et al. [2010]. Science 330, 463–468, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1186986), and possibly at the poles of Mercury (Paige, D.A. et al. [2013]. Science 339, 300–303, http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1231106), introduces the question of whether the organics were delivered by impact or formed in situ. Laboratory experiments show that high energy particles can cause organic production from simple ices. We use a Monte Carlo particle scattering code (MCNPX) to model and report the flux of GCR protons at the surface of the Moon and report radiation dose rates and absorbed doses at the Moon’s surface and with depth as a result of GCR protons and secondary particles, and apply scaling factors to account for contributions to dose from heavier ions. We compare our results with dose rate measurements by the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) experiment on Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (Schwadron, N.A. et al. [2012]. J. Geophys. Res. 117, E00H13, http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2011JE003978) and find them in good agreement, indicating that MCNPX can be confidently applied to studies of radiation dose at and within the surface of the Moon. We use our dose rate calculations to conclude that organic synthesis is plausible well within the age of the lunar polar cold traps, and that organics detected at the poles of the Moon may have been produced in situ. Our dose rate calculations also indicate that galactic cosmic rays can induce organic synthesis within the estimated age of the dark deposits at the pole of Mercury that may contain organics.     

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation in serpentine-water and talc-water systems from 250 to 450 °C, 50 MPa

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope fractionation factors in the talc-water and serpentine-water systems have been determined by laboratory experiment from 250 to 450 °C at 50 MPa using the partial exchange technique. Talc was synthesized from brucite + quartz, resulting in nearly 100% exchange during reaction at 350 and 450 °C. For serpentine, D-H exchange was much more rapid than ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange when natural chrysotile fibers were employed in the initial charge. In experiments with lizardite as the starting charge, recrystallization to chrysotile enhanced the rate of ¹⁸O-¹⁶O exchange with the coexisting aqueous phase. Oxygen isotope fractionation factors in both the talc-water and serpentine-water systems decrease with increasing temperature and can be described from 250 to 450 °C by the relationships: 1000 ln  = 11.70 × 10⁶/T² − 25.49 × 10³/T + 12.48 and 1000 ln  = 3.49 × 10⁶/T² − 9.48 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Over the same temperature interval at 50 MPa, talc-water D-H fractionation is only weakly dependent on temperature, similar to brucite and chlorite, and can be described by the equation: 1000 ln = 10.88 × 10⁶/T² − 41.52 × 10³/T + 5.61 where T is temperature in Kelvin. Our D-H serpentine-water fractionation factors calibrated by experiment decrease with temperature and form a consistent trend with fractionation factors derived from lower temperature field calibrations. By regression of these data, we have refined and extended the D-H fractionation curve from 25 to 450 °C, 50 MPa as follows: 1000 ln  = 3.436 × 10⁶/T² − 34.736 × 10³/T + 21.67 where T is temperature in Kelvin. These new data should improve the application of D-H and ¹⁸O-¹⁶O isotopes to constrain the temperature and origin of hydrothermal fluids responsible for serpentine formation in a variety of geologic settings.     

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.