2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径主客观预报评价

利用目前中央气象台热带气旋路径实时业务预报中使用的各种主客观预报产品资料,对2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径实时业务预报中的主客观预报进行对比分析检验。结果显示：虽然在整体上主观预报要优于客观模式的结果,但客观模式的预报能力已接近主观预报,有时甚至还好于主观预报,特别是48小时以上时效的客观模式较主观预报具有一定的优势;而在客观模式中,全球模式优于台风模式;热带气旋路径数值模式产品的使用对提高热带气旋路径业务预报水平具有十分重要的作用。     

双三次数值模式与理想Lamb波、龙卷扰动对比模拟分析

通过"双三次曲面拟合—时间步长积分—双三次曲面拟合……",实现成为一种双三次曲面拟合新算法数值模式。它对模式大气作非线性(空间二阶可导)描述,是用数值分析(三次样条/双三次曲面)与计算方法近似求解大气运动非线性偏微分方程组。用Z坐标系高分辨率双三次数值模式,采用原始大气运动方程组和采用欧拉时间积分方案,设置理想扰动,对大气声波Lamb波做数值模拟;采用大气不可压假定,除去声波,对大气重力波龙卷扰动做数值模拟。对比模拟发现:理想Lamb波以声速在水平方向传播,扰动能量频散快,仅能在原地持续数秒钟;理想龙卷扰动则在原地可持续约1 min,且波动内圈(外圈)自下至上始终处于风场辐合(辐散)状态,具冷心结构和气压驻波特征,可因水汽进入扰动与借助凝结潜热释放而得到发展。     

边界层过程对"98·7"长江流域暴雨预报影响的数值试验研究

通过ETA模式对"98@7"长江流域暴雨过程的数值试验研究,讨论了行星边界层过程对暴雨数值预报的影响,结果表明边界层过程在这次暴雨预报中有重要作用.具体结论为:(1)降水大范围落区是受大尺度流场所决定的,但边界层过程对暴雨预报具有重要的作用;(2)不考虑边界层过程会影响对天气系统的正确预报,包括影响大气低层的运动场、水汽及大气不稳定度,从而影响暴雨的预报;(3)从时间层次上看,由于地表通量有着显著的日变化,边界层过程的作用不仅与暴雨本身发生发展及消亡的阶段有关,也与各阶段的时间(白天或夜间)有联系;(4)在空间范围内,边界层过程对大气的影响是通过大气流场重新分布来影响降水的环境条件,故地表通量分布和低层流场的相互配置作用十分重要.长江南北的情况有所不同,长江流域南侧区是地表通量的大值区,也是长江流域雨区水汽和不稳定能量的源区,它对长江流域的暴雨可能有着更为重要的作用.     

胶东崂山早白垩世A型花岗岩成因及对区域构造演化的意义

早白垩世崂山花岗岩位于苏鲁超高压变质带中部, 是中国东部典型的A型花岗岩之一。其岩浆源区和岩石成因目前还存在一定的争议, 而且其成岩过程中的物理化学条件及相关研究也比较缺乏。本文在详细的野外工作和岩相学研究的基础上, 采用角闪石、黑云母的成分估算了成岩的温度、压力和氧逸度条件, 并开展了岩石地球化学、Sr-Nd同位素分析, 探讨岩石的源区和成因。结果显示, 崂山花岗岩的岩浆形成于高温(>850℃)和高氧逸度条件。岩浆在地壳浅部压力较低的条件下结晶, 岩浆固结温度在700℃左右, 随后经历了快速降温的过程。岩石地球化学方面, 崂山花岗岩富SiO2、富碱, 贫Ca、Mg; 高场强元素Th、Zr、Nb、Y和大离子亲石元素Rb、K含量高, 而Ba、Sr含量低; 稀土元素含量高, 且具有显著的Eu负异常, 呈右倾"海鸥型"分配特征。同位素方面, 所有样品均显示出富集的Sr、Nd同位素特征, (87Sr/86Sr)i=0.706447~0.707876, εNd(117Ma)值为-14.8~-17.4, 全岩Nd两阶段模式年龄(tDM2)为2112~2325Ma。结合胶东地区前人的研究成果, 本文认为崂山A型花岗岩是由地壳中富K的碱性岩重熔而成, 其岩浆源区很可能与该区三叠纪碱性岩浆活动有关。崂山A型花岗岩的形成标志着碰撞造山带底部的扬子板块已经垮塌完毕, 同时岩石圈减薄达到高峰。     

高级变质作用对锆石U-Pb同位素体系的影响:胶东栖霞地区变质闪长岩锆石定年

文中对高级变质作用(高角闪岩相-麻粒岩相)条件下"干的"岩石体系中锆石U、Th、Ph行为进行了研究.样品为胶东栖霞地区太古宙变质基底的高角闪岩相-麻粒岩相变质闪长岩.矿物组合为单斜辉石+斜长石+钾长石+黑云母+石英.锆石呈近短轴状、等轴状和不规则状,阴极发光下具板状、杉树叶状、扇形结构,部分具封闭环带结构.锆石中存在斜...     

Alteration and mineralization styles of the orogenic disseminated Zhenyuan gold deposit,southeastern Tibet: Contrast with carlin gold deposit

Orogenic disseminated and Carlin gold deposits share much similarity in alteration and mineralization.The disseminated orogenic Zhenyuan Au deposit along the Ailaoshan shear zone,southeastern Tibet,was selected to clarify their difference.The alteration and mineralization from the different lithologies,including meta-quartz sandstone,carbonaceous slate,meta-(ultra)mafic rock,quartz porphyry and lamprophyre were researched.According to the mineral assemblage and replacement relationship in all types of host rocks,two reactions show general control on gold deposition:(1)replacement of earlier magnetite by pyrite and carbonaceous material;(2)alteration of biotite and phlogopite phenocrysts in quartz porphyry and lamprophyre into dolomite/ankerite and sericite.Despite the lamprophyre is volumetrically minor and much less fractured than other host rocks,it contains a large portion of Au reserve,indicating that the chemically active lithology has played a more important role in gold precipitation compared to structure.LA-ICP-MS analysis shows that Au mainly occurs as invisible gold in fine-grained pyrite disseminated in the host rocks,with Au content reaching to 258.95 ppm.The diagenetic core of pyrite in meta-quartz sandstone enriched in Co,Ni,Mo,Ag and Hg is wrapped by hydrothermal pyrite enriched in Cu,As,Sb,Au,Tl,Pb and Bi.Different host rock lithology has much impact on the alteration and mineralization features.Carbonate and sericite in altered lamprophyre show they have higher Mg than those developed in other of host rocks denoting that the carbonate and sericite incorporated Mg from phlogopite phenocrysts in the primary lamprophyre during alteration.The ore fluid activated the diagenetic pyrite in meta-quartz sandstone leading the hydrothermal pyrite enriched in Cu,Mo,Ag,Sb,Te,Hg,Tl,Pb and Bi,but the hydrothermal pyrite in meta-(ultra)mafic rock is enriched in Co and Ni as the meta-(ultra)mafic rock host rock contain high content of Co and Ni.However,Au and As shear similar range in both types of host rocks indicating that these two elements most likely come from the deep source fluid rather than the host rocks.It was shown in the disseminated orogenic gold deposit that similar hydrothermal alteration with mineral assemblage of carbonate(mainly dolomite and ankerite),sericite,pyrite and arsenopyrite develops in all types of host rocks.This is different from the Nevada Carlin type,in which alteration is mainly dissolution and silicification of carbonate host rock.On the other hand,Au mainly occur as invisible gold in both disseminated orogenic and Carlin gold deposits.     

CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。     

多元权力主体实践下民族村寨的旅游空间再生产——以贵州肇兴侗寨为例

以贵州肇兴侗寨为案例地,运用列斐伏尔的空间生产理论,采用田野调查与深度访谈结合的方法,从物理空间、社会空间、意义空间3个维度审视多元权力主体的“物质－关系－情感”联结以及与旅游发展的自洽性。结果表明：1）物理空间在权力主体的更迭下得以重新规划,有助于劳动力的回流。村寨的原真性在规制的约束下得以维护,但建构的景观符号是对民族村寨的错位表达。2）对于社会空间中的冲突,当地居民采取退让不退出的策略与管理者达成空间错时使用与管理默契。威权人物寨老成为消解分歧、推动社会关系巩固与凝聚的代表。对游客及外来经营户的让渡与周全,体现了当地居民开放包容的待客之道与处事哲学。3）意义空间通过当地居民对节事、文化的情感注入,对文化惯习的传承、对乡约的承继、对怀旧物的回忆与想象得以再生产。对于处在发展上升期的民族村寨而言,多元权力主体会基于利益的共同性与社会关系的粘连性考虑,做出符合当地旅游发展与自身容纳限度的调适与让步,来适应旅游发展带来的空间变化。     

Study on the relationship between geothermal exploitation and seismic activity in Xi’an region

Based on the analysis of the induced earthquakes in China and abroad, we get some ideas about earthquakes induced by pumping water out of a well or injecting water into a well. The induced earthquakes usually occur near the well, and they are generally small earthquakes. The earthquake sources are shallow, and they belong to the main shock-after shock type of earthquake or the swarm-type of earthquake. The magnitude and the quantity of the induced earthquakes obviously depend on the pressure and the quantity of water pumped or injected. These earthquakes happen as soon as pumping or injecting occurrence, or after ten or twenty days, they may occur at the time of injecting mud or injecting high pressure water when a well is being drilled, or at the time when the ground water is being normally exploited. A large quantity of hot water has been exploited since 1990 in Xi’an, and the quantity of water exploited has been increasing year by year, as a result the groundwater level has been dropping with the water pumped out and the water level is high in summer and low in winter. The earthquakes in Xi’an region belong to the solitary-type and they spread outside Xi’an city where the wells are concentrated but no earthquake happens. The seismic frequency and the energy released have no relation with the quantity of water exploitation or the water level in the well. It is considered that geothermal exploitation does not induce earthquakes in and around Xi’an because of its specially geological condition. Foundation item: Project sponsored by the Landslide Office of Shaanxi Province and Society of Disaster Reduction of Shaanxi Province.     

全球气候变化背景下的西北地区生态环境建设、可持续发展

本文通过对西北地区气候与生态环境、可持续发展的调查研究，提出我国应高度重视全球气候变化的影响，要在气候变化的背景下，通过人类的有序活动促进我国生态环境建设和经济社会的可持续发展，实现人和自然的和谐共存。