Meteoroid Stream Searching: The Use of the Vectorial Elements

In this initial study, we propose a new distance function D _V involving heliocentric vectorial orbital elements. The function measures differences between: the orbital energies, the angular momentums vectors and the Laplace vectors. In comparison with the widely used D _SH criterion of Southworth and Hawkins, D _D criterion of Drummond and their hybrid D _H by Jopek, the new function contains one invariant with respect to the principal secular perturbation: the orbital energy. The new function proved to be useful in the classification amongst the IAU2003 meteoroids which we searched for streams by D _V function and also using D _SH and D _N -function given by Valsecchi et al. For major streams, the results agree very well. For minor, and near-ecliptical streams the results sometimes differ markedly.     

Metals in eggs and hatchlings of Dermochelys coriacea (testudines) in Espírito Santo,Brazil and their relation to hatching and emergence success

Certain concentration of metal may influence survival in embryonic stages, reducing the birthrate and hatching emergence. This study aimed to evaluate concentration of metal in eggs and hatchlings of Dermochelys coriacea and correlate metal concentrations in eggs with hatching and emergence success. The samples were collected at Biological Reserve Station, ES, Brazil. At the nests' opening, unhatched eggs and stillborn hatchlings were collected to survey the successful hatching and emergence of D. coriacea. The eggs shell, egg content, and dead hatchlings metal concentrations were compared to hatching and emergence success. A positive correlation was found between the concentration of copper (Cu) in the hatchlings and the success of the emergence (r² = .28, p < .05), and a moderate positive correlation between the concentrations of iron (Fe) and barium (Ba; r² = .44, p < .05) and success hatching. The concentrations of metals in eggs and hatchlings of D. coriacea in the Espírito Santo are below the levels that could be considered harmful to the species. In summary, there is a positive correlation between metals levels and hatching and emergence success.     

Intercomparison of measurements of bulk snow density and water equivalent of snow cover with snow core samplers: Instrumental bias and variability induced by observers

Manually collected snow data are often considered as ground truth for many applications such as climatological or hydrological studies. However, there are many sources of uncertainty that are not quantified in detail. For the determination of water equivalent of snow cover (SWE), different snow core samplers and scales are used, but they are all based on the same measurement principle. We conducted two field campaigns with 9 samplers commonly used in observational measurements and research in Europe and northern America to better quantify uncertainties when measuring depth, density and SWE with core samplers. During the first campaign, as a first approach to distinguish snow variability measured at the plot and at the point scale, repeated measurements were taken along two 20 m long snow pits. The results revealed a much higher variability of SWE at the plot scale (resulting from both natural variability and instrumental bias) compared to repeated measurements at the same spot (resulting mostly from error induced by observers or very small scale variability of snow depth). The exceptionally homogeneous snowpack found in the second campaign permitted to almost neglect the natural variability of the snowpack properties and focus on the separation between instrumental bias and error induced by observers. Reported uncertainties refer to a shallow, homogeneous tundra-taiga snowpack less than 1 m deep (loose, mostly recrystallised snow and no wind impact). Under such measurement conditions, the uncertainty in bulk snow density estimation is about 5% for an individual instrument and is close to 10% among different instruments. Results confirmed that instrumental bias exceeded both the natural variability and the error induced by observers, even in the case when observers were not familiar with a given snow core sampler.     

Tropospheric refractivity and zenith path delays from least-squares collocation of meteorological and GNSS data

Precise positioning requires an accurate a priori troposphere model to enhance the solution quality. Several empirical models are available, but they may not properly characterize the state of troposphere, especially in severe weather conditions. Another possible solution is to use regional troposphere models based on real-time or near-real time measurements. In this study, we present the total refractivity and zenith total delay (ZTD) models based on a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data and ground-based meteorological observations. We reconstruct the total refractivity profiles over the western part of Switzerland and the total refractivity profiles as well as ZTDs over Poland using the least-squares collocation software COMEDIE (Collocation of Meteorological Data for Interpretation and Estimation of Tropospheric Pathdelays) developed at ETH Zürich. In these two case studies, profiles of the total refractivity and ZTDs are calculated from different data sets. For Switzerland, the data set with the best agreement with the reference radiosonde (RS) measurements is the combination of ground-based meteorological observations and GNSS ZTDs. Introducing the horizontal gradients does not improve the vertical interpolation, and results in slightly larger biases and standard deviations. For Poland, the data set based on meteorological parameters from the NWP Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and from a combination of the NWP model and GNSS ZTDs shows the best agreement with the reference RS data. In terms of ZTD, the combined NWP-GNSS observations and GNSS-only data set exhibit the best accuracy with an average bias (from all stations) of 3.7 mm and average standard deviations of 17.0 mm w.r.t. the reference GNSS stations.     

Assimilation of Hourly Surface Observations with the Canadian High-Resolution Ensemble Kalman Filter

An hourly-cycling ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) working at 2.5?km horizontal grid spacing is implemented over southern Ontario (Canada) to assimilate Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Reports (METARs) in addition to the observations assimilated operationally at the Canadian Meteorological Centre. This high-resolution EnKF (HREnKF) system employs ensemble land analyses and perturbed roughness length to prevent an ensemble spread that is too small near the surface. The HREnKF then performs continuously for a four-day period, from which twelve-hour ensemble forecasts are launched every six hours. The impact on analyses and short-term forecasts of assimilating METAR data is given special attention.

It is shown that using ensemble land surface analyses increases near-surface ensemble spreads for temperature and specific humidity. Perturbing roughness length enlarges the spread for surface wind. Given sufficient ensemble spread, the four-day case study shows that the near-surface model state is brought closer to surface observations during the cycling process. The impact of assimilating surface data can also be seen at higher levels by using aircraft reports for verification. The ensemble forecast verification suggests that METAR data assimilation improves ensemble forecasts of air temperature and dewpoint near the surface up to a lead time of six hours or even longer. However, only minor improvement is found in surface wind forecasts.     

The integrated use of GPS/GLONASS observations in network code differential positioning

GPS Solutions - We present the methodology and results of GPS/GLONASS integration in network code differential positioning for regional coverage across Poland using single frequency. Previous...     

A comparison of results from geomorphological diversity evaluation methods in the Polish Lowland (Toruń Basin and Chełmno Lakeland)

Geomorphological diversity is part of geodiversity. Study and evaluation of geodiversity, including geomorphological diversity, is often conducted in uplands and mountains, despite the fact that lowland areas are of equal importance. This paper evaluates geomorphological diversity in a small area of the Polish Lowland, using a variety of methods that have been applied in recent times for evaluating geodiversity, and presents the results on maps. By comparing these maps and analyzing the correlation coefficients of the results obtained, it was possible to identify the two methods that were best suited to indicating areas with the greatest geomorphological diversity in the lowlands. These two methods are least affected by the choice of elementary fields and data classification methods applied. The study identified the two areas with the greatest relief diversity and showed that they distinctly differ from one another. They demonstrate the major influence of processes, not only on the topographic parameters and landform types, but above all on identifying and defining total geomorphological diversity. These methods, which can be used to identify the areas with the greatest total geomorphological diversity, could readily be used in applied studies relating to abiotic ecosystem services and landscape management.     

Holocene paleohydrological reconstruction of Lake Strzeszyńskie (western Poland) and its implications for the central European climatic transition zone

Western Poland is located in the central European climatic transition zone, which separates the mild and humid Atlantic climate of Western Europe and the East European continental climate. This region is sensitive to lateral shifts of the European climate zones and is particularly suitable for reconstructing Holocene climate variability. This paper presents detailed analyses of the sedimentary record from Lake Strzeszyńskie since the Late Pleistocene. These include smear-slide and thin-section observations, X-ray fluorescence core scanning, magnetic susceptibility measurements, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon dating. The sediment record reveals three distinct sedimentary units consisting of: (1) an alternation of sand layers and laminated silt and clay deposits accumulated prior to 14,600 cal yr BP; (2) faintly laminated calcareous sediments intercalated with organic matter-rich layers deposited between 14,600 and 10,200 cal yr BP; and (3) massive calcareous mud deposited after 10,200 cal yr BP. The Holocene period is marked by nine phases of organic-rich sedimentation and enhanced Fe deposition, which occurred at ca. 10.1, 9.3, 6.4–6.1, 5.5–5.1, 4.7–4.5, 2.7–2.4, 1.3–1.2, 0.8–0.6, 0.4–0.2 kyr cal BP. These phases are associated with high lake levels and correspond with wet periods recognized in several other records from Poland and central Europe. These phases partly coincide with North Atlantic cold periods, which may suggest that high lake levels are triggered by an ocean-continent linking mechanism.     

Observations of Atmospheric Methane and Carbon Dioxide Mixing Ratios: Tall-Tower or Mountain-Top Stations?

Mountain-top observations of greenhouse gas mixing ratios may be an alternative to tall-tower measurements for regional scale source and sink estimation. To investigate the equivalence or limitations of a mountain-top site as compared to a tall-tower site, we used the unique opportunity of comparing in situ measurements of methane (\(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)) and carbon dioxide (\(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)) mixing ratios at a mountain top (986 m above sea level, a.s.l.) with measurements from a nearby (distance 28.4 km) tall tower, sampled at almost the same elevation (1009 m a.s.l.). Special attention was given to, (i) how local wind statistics and greenhouse gas sources and sinks at the mountain top influence the observations, and (ii) whether mountain-top observations can be used as for those from a tall tower for constraining regional greenhouse gas emissions. Wind statistics at the mountain-top site are clearly more influenced by local flow systems than those at the tall-tower site. Differences in temporal patterns of the greenhouse gas mixing ratios observed at the two sites are mostly related to the influence of local sources and sinks at the mountain-top site. Major influences of local sources can be removed by applying a statistical filter (\(5{\mathrm{th}}\) percentile) or a filter that removes periods with unfavourable flow conditions. In the best case, the bias in mixing ratios between the mountain-top and the tall-tower sites after the application of the wind filter was \({-}0.0005\pm 0.0010\) ppm for methane (September, 0000–0400 UTC) and \(0.11\pm 0.18\) ppm for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) (February, 1200–1600 UTC). Temporal fluctuations of atmospheric \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\) and \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) mixing ratios at both stations also showed good agreement (apart from \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) during summertime) as determined by moving bi-weekly Pearson correlation coefficients (up to 0.96 for \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) and 0.97 for \(\hbox {CH}_{4}\)). When only comparing mixing ratios minimally influenced by local sources (low bias and high correlation coefficients), our measurements indicate that mountain-top observations are comparable to tall-tower observations.     

Sea water surface energy balance in the Arctic fjord (Hornsund,SW Spitsbergen) in May–November 2014

Maize is grown by millions of smallholder farmers in South Asia (SA) under diverse environments. The crop is grown in different seasons in a year with varying exposure to weather extremes, including high temperatures at critical growth stages which are expected to increase with climate change. This study assesses the impact of current and future heat stress on maize and the benefit of heat-tolerant varieties in SA. Annual mean maximum temperatures may increase by 1.4–1.8 °C in 2030 and 2.1–2.6 °C in 2050, with large monthly, seasonal, and spatial variations across SA. The extent of heat stressed areas in SA could increase by up to 12 % in 2030 and 21 % in 2050 relative to the baseline. The impact of heat stress and the benefit from heat-tolerant varieties vary with the level of temperature increase and planting season. At a regional scale, climate change would reduce rainfed maize yield by an average of 3.3–6.4 % in 2030 and 5.2–12.2 % in 2050 and irrigated yield by 3–8 % in 2030 and 5–14 % in 2050 if current varieties were grown under the future climate. Under projected climate, heat-tolerant varieties could minimize yield loss (relative to current maize varieties) by up to 36 and 93 % in 2030 and 33 and 86 % in 2050 under rainfed and irrigated conditions, respectively. Heat-tolerant maize varieties, therefore, have the potential to shield maize farmers from severe yield loss due to heat stress and help them adapt to climate change impacts.