Seismic hazard map of the Middle East

The collaborative project Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME, 2010–2015) brought together scientists and engineers from the leading research institutions in the region and delivered state-of-the-art seismic hazard assessment covering Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey. Their efforts have been materialized in the first homogenized seismic hazard model comprising earthquake catalogues, mapped active faults, strong motions databank, ground motion models and the estimated ground motion values for various intensity measure types and relevant return periods (e.g. 475–5000 years). The reference seismic hazard map of the Middle East, depicts the mean values of peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years. A full resolution poster is provided with this contribution.     

On the seismic performance of straight integral abutment bridges: From advanced numerical modelling to a practice-oriented analysis method

The seismic performance of integral abutment bridges (IABs) is affected by the interaction with the surrounding soil, and specifically by the development of interaction forces in the embankment-abutment and soil-piles systems. In principle, these effects could be evaluated by means of highly demanding numerical computations that, however, can be carried out only for detailed studies of specific cases. By contrast, a low-demanding analysis method is needed for a design-oriented assessment of the longitudinal seismic performance of IABs. To this purpose, the present paper describes a design technique in which the frequency- and amplitude-dependency of the soil-structure interaction is modelled in a simplified manner. Specifically, the method consists of a time-domain analysis of a simplified soil-bridge model, in which soil-structure interaction is simulated by means of distributed nonlinear springs connecting a free-field ground response analysis model to the structural system. The results of this simplified method are validated against the results of advanced numerical analyses, considering different seismic scenarios. In its present state of development, the proposed simplified nonlinear model can be used for an efficient evaluation of the longitudinal response of straight IABs and can constitute a starting point for a prospective generalisation to three-dimensional response.     

Intrinsic groundwater vulnerability assessment: issues,comparison of different methodologies and correlation with nitrate concentrations in NW Italy

The concept of aquifer vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of vulnerability is still under debate and lacks standardisation. As a consequence, the methods for evaluating the vulnerability degree are numerous and often lead to conflicting results. Thus, in this study, three methods that are commonly used in groundwater vulnerability assessments due to their easy application (namely DRASTIC, GOD and TOT) were utilised in four areas of the Piedmont region (NW Italy). The results obtained by the different methods were compared and correlated with the nitrate concentrations in the groundwater. The aims of the study were (i) to evaluate the effectiveness of the adopted methods and their comparability, (ii) to discuss the limits of the intrinsic vulnerability methods and (iii) to verify the applicability of nitrate as a tracer in the assessment of groundwater vulnerability or explain the reasons why it is not applicable. It was observed that the three intrinsic vulnerability methods are not able to uniquely identify the most or least vulnerable areas. Additionally, the comparison of the intrinsic vulnerability indexes only occasionally showed a reasonable correlation. Furthermore, there was no clear correlation between the vulnerability indexes and nitrate concentrations in the groundwater. These results could be explained by several reasons: (1) the methods are mostly based on the level of groundwater protection provided by the overlaying lithologies and do not consider the physical processes occurring in the aquifer; (2) the intrinsic vulnerability methods only consider vertical pathways for contaminants, but a pre-existing contaminant could be present in the aquifer; (3) groundwater nitrate concentrations are affected by the nitrate input and surplus; and (4) nitrates are subject to physical and biological attenuation in aquifers and cannot necessarily be considered stable tracers in the assessment of groundwater vulnerability.     

Preliminary prediction of damage to residential buildings following the 21st August 2017 Ischia earthquake

On August 21st, 2017, an earthquake with duration magnitude M_d?=?4.0 and epicentre in Casamicciola Terme hit Ischia island, in the South of Italy. This event caused two fatalities and dozens of injured people. Moreover, despite the low magnitude, the earthquake produced significant damages to masonry and reinforced concrete (RC) buildings, with some partial or complete collapse of structures, in a very limited area close to the epicentre, while even at small distance from the most damaged zone the earthquake was just felt by local people and tourists. In the days after the event, discussions concerning the destructive effects of such an earthquake arose in the scientific community—as also reported by local and national media. In this paper, the seismic history of Ischia island is recalled to show and explain the peculiarity of the August 21st earthquake, which is also described in terms of ground motion and response spectra characteristics. The results of the first surveys carried out in Casamicciola Terme are reported, together with appropriate pictures, to introduce and explain the observed damage state of masonry and RC buildings in the epicentral zone. Then, data from the 15th general census of the population and dwellings (ISTAT) is used to define vulnerability classes according to the classification of the European Macrosismic Scale (EMS-98) (Grünthal, 1998). Seismic damage scenarios are then evaluated combining macro-seismic intensity values obtained using an interpolation method starting from QUEST macro-seismic survey data (Azzaro et al., 2017 ) and fragility curves for A-to-D vulnerability classes and for five damage states, from DS0 (no damage) to DS5 (collapse) trough a Monte Carlo simulation technique. The distributions of Usable, Temporarily or Partially Unusable, and Unusable buildings, which are obtained by using relationships between damage and usability judgments obtained through post-earthquake damage data collected after past seismic events, result in very good accordance with those published in September 1st, 2017 by the Department of Civil Protection, regarding a dataset of about 600 buildings.     

Comparative soil CO2 flux measurements and geostatistical estimation methods on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua

We present a comparative study of soil CO₂ flux () measured by five groups (Groups 1–5) at the IAVCEI-CCVG Eighth Workshop on Volcanic Gases on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Groups 1–5 measured using the accumulation chamber method at 5-m spacing within a 900 m² grid during a morning (AM) period. These measurements were repeated by Groups 1–3 during an afternoon (PM) period. Measured ranged from 218 to 14,719 g m⁻² day⁻¹. The variability of the five measurements made at each grid point ranged from ±5 to 167%. However, the arithmetic means of fluxes measured over the entire grid and associated total CO₂ emission rate estimates varied between groups by only ±22%. All three groups that made PM measurements reported an 8–19% increase in total emissions over the AM results. Based on a comparison of measurements made during AM and PM times, we argue that this change is due in large part to natural temporal variability of gas flow, rather than to measurement error. In order to estimate the mean and associated CO₂ emission rate of one data set and to map the spatial distribution, we compared six geostatistical methods: arithmetic and minimum variance unbiased estimator means of uninterpolated data, and arithmetic means of data interpolated by the multiquadric radial basis function, ordinary kriging, multi-Gaussian kriging, and sequential Gaussian simulation methods. While the total CO₂ emission rates estimated using the different techniques only varied by ±4.4%, the maps showed important differences. We suggest that the sequential Gaussian simulation method yields the most realistic representation of the spatial distribution of , but a variety of geostatistical methods are appropriate to estimate the total CO₂ emission rate from a study area, which is a primary goal in volcano monitoring research.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

The green–blue swing: plasticity of plankton food‐webs in response to coastal oceanographic dynamics

The internal organization of plankton communities plays a key role in biogeochemical cycles and in the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the structure of a marine plankton community (including both unicellular and multicellular organisms) was inferred by applying an ecological network approach to species abundances observed weekly at the long‐term ecological research station MareChiara (LTER‐MC) in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Mediterranean Sea) in the summers of 2002–2009. Two distinct conditions, characterized by different combination of salinity and chlorophyll values, alternated at the site: one influenced by coastal waters, herein named ‘green’, and the other reflecting more offshore conditions, named ‘blue’. The green and blue ‘phases’ showed different keystone biological elements: namely, large diatoms and small‐sized flagellates, respectively. Several correlations amongst species belonging to different trophic groups were found in both phases (connectance ~0.30). In the green phase, several links between phytoplankton and mesozooplankton and within the latter were detected, suggesting matter flow from microbes up to carnivorous zooplankton. A microbial‐loop‐like sub‐web, including mixo‐ and heterotrophic dinoflagellates and ciliates, was present in the green phase, but it was relatively more important in the blue phase. The latter observation suggests a more intense cycling of matter at the microbial trophic level in the blue phase. These results show that different modes of ecological organization can emerge from relatively small changes in the composition of aquatic communities coping with environmental variability. This highlights a significant plasticity in the internal structure of plankton webs, which should be taken into account in predictions of the potential effects of climatic oscillations on aquatic ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles therein.     

3D Hybrid Ray-FD and DWN-FD Seismic Modeling for Simple Models Containing Complex Local Structures

Hybrid approaches find broad applications wherever all-in-one modelling of source, path, and site effects is too expensive. Our new 3D hybrid approach allows to compute the seismic wavefield in elastic isotropic models containing a complex local structure embedded in a large, but considerably simpler, regional structure. The hybrid modelling is realized in two successive steps.In the 1^st step, the ray or discrete wave number (DWN) method is used to compute the seismic wavefield due to the source and simple regional structure. The complex local structure is not present. Thus, the excitation contains the source and regional path effects. The time history of this wavefield (excitation), recorded at the points of so called excitation box, is stored on a disk. The excitation box envelopes a small portion of a computational domain.The 2^nd step of the hybrid method, now containing the complex local structure, is computed by finite differences (FD) inside the excitation box and its close vicinity. The excitation from the 1^st step is now used to inject the 1^st step wavefield into the 2^nd step computation. After that, the hybrid combination of the 1^st and 2^nd steps contains the source, regional path, and local structure effects at reasonably lower computational costs than in case of all-in-one modelling.The 3D ray-FD method is tested on models in which the locally complex structure is the well-known Volvi lake basin, embedded in various 1D structures. The wavefield is excited by the point source situated outside the basin. Although the structure outside the excitation box may be less dimensional (2D, 1D, homogeneous), the whole problem is actually 3D due to the 3D features of the structure inside the excitation box, 3D shape of the excitation box, and arbitrary source — excitation-box configuration. Simple (1D) structures outside the excitation box allow for comparison with the alternative hybrid DWN-FD results. However the ray method is suitable for computation of 3D regional structures outside the excitation box. The results from both approaches show a very good agreement for realistic crustal and local structural models.     

A discriminatory diagram of massive versus stratified deposits based on the sedimentation and bedload transportation rates. Experimental investigation and application to pyroclastic density currents

Dense gas-particle jets similar to collapsing eruption columns were generated by large-scale experiments. The column collapse resulted in a ground-hugging current forming stratified layers with bedding similar to natural pyroclastic density current deposits. At the impact of the collapsing column on the ground, a thick, massive bed was formed due to a high sedimentation rate that dumped turbulence due to high clast concentration. Down-current, flow expansion favoured turbulence and dilute gas-particle current that formed thin rippled layers deposited under traction. Experiments fed with fine ash (median size 0·066 mm) formed deposits without tractional structures, because fine particles, as other sedimentary fine material, is cohesive and exposes a limited surface to the shear stress. Experimental outcomes show that massive beds are formed where the sedimentation rate per unit width S_rw exceeds the bedload transportation rate Q_b by two orders of magnitude. A lower ratio generates traction at the base of the flow and formation of shear structures that increase in wavelength and height with a decreasing flux. This study presents a diagram that provides a useful addition for facies analysis of pyroclastic density currents, provided that deposits representing sustained sedimentation can be identified in the field. In the diagram a decrease in the S_rw/Q_b ratio corresponds to an increase in bedform size. Application of the diagram for hazard assessment purposes allows the reconstruction of the mass eruption rate of the Agnano–Monte Spina eruption at Campi Flegrei, which is the main variable defining the intensity of past eruptions, and of the Bingham rheology of the massive underflow of the Mercato pyroclastic density current at Vesuvius.