Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10⁻⁴, 10⁻³, 10⁻²} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.

     

A water retention model accounting for void ratio changes in double porosity clays

This paper presents a constitutive model that predicts the water retention behaviour of compacted clays with evolving bimodal pore size distributions. In line with previous research, the model differentiates between the water present inside the saturated pores of the clay aggregates (the microstructure) and the water present inside the pores between clay aggregates (the macrostructure). A new formulation is then introduced to account for the effect of the macrostructural porosity changes on the retention behaviour of the soil, which results in a consistent evolution of the air-entry value of suction with volumetric deformations. Data from wetting tests on three different active clays (i.e. MX-80 bentonite, FEBEX bentonite, and Boom clay), subjected to distinct mechanical restraints, were used to formulate, calibrate, and validate the proposed model. Results from free swelling tests were also modelled by using both the proposed double porosity model and a published single porosity model, which confirmed the improvement in the predictions of degree of saturation by the present approach. The proposed retention model might be applied, for example, to the simulation of the hydromechanical behaviour of engineered bentonite barriers in underground nuclear waste repositories, where compacted active clays are subjected to changes of both suction and porosity structure under restrained volume conditions.

     

Distribution patterns of interstitial polychaetes in sandy beaches of southern Brazil

This study describes the distribution patterns of interstitial polychaetes along morphodynamic gradients on six exposed sandy beaches in Santa Catarina and Paraná (South Brazil). Three random transects were sampled at two points on each beach, one at the swash and another at the surf zone, in winter and summer conditions. Six sediment replicates were collected at each sampling point using a corer of 4.6 cm internal diameter that removed 10 cm into the sediment. Abundance and composition of interstitial polychaete were correlated to wave height, slope, grain size, CaCO₃, chlorophyll a , omega indexes, temperature and relative tide range using a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA). A factorial ANOVA showed that taxa richness, mean density and Shannon's diversity were significantly higher at the reflective beaches, but average values differ significantly between transects and these differences change according to the beach zones on both sampling dates. PERMANOVA showed that polychaete associations differ among transects according to the beach zones. The composition of interstitial polychaete associations was significantly correlated to beach morphodynamics and features (P < 0.01). Polychaete associations of reflective beaches were more diverse than in other morphodynamic states. Intermediate beaches may also sustain diverse associations due to temporal variability of the morphodynamic patterns. Beaches presenting extreme dissipative morphodynamics and compacted sediments appear to be unfavourable for the occurrence of interstitial polychaetes.     

Magma chambers and localization of deformation during thrusting

Terra Nova, 22, 390–395, 2010 Abstract We present the results of coupled analogue and numerical models that provide new insights into the relationships between volcanoes and thrusts. The effects of both upper‐crustal magma chambers and the load of volcanoes on the geometry of thrust systems were investigated. Analogue modelling points to a strong influence exerted by a magma chamber on thrust geometry, which, as suggested by the numerical models used to rationalize these results, is related to the stress redistribution around the weak heterogeneity. The low‐viscosity body below a volcanic edifice localizes compressional deformation and causes a curvature of the thrusts towards the magma chamber, opposite to the direction of tectonic transport. In these conditions, the volcanic load has a negligible effect on the structural geometry. These results are in contrast with those of previous studies, where intrusions or the load of major volcanoes generated a curvature of the thrusts away from volcanic edifices in the direction of tectonic transport.     

A dispersion scale effect in model calibrations and field tracer experiments

Field tracer experiments and model calibrations indicate that the magnitude of dispersivity increases as a function of the scale at which observations are made. Calculations presented in this study suggest that some part of this scaling may be explained as an artifact of the models used. Specifically, a scaling-up of dispersivity will occur whenever an (n − 1)-dimensional model is calibrated or otherwise employed to describe an n-dimensional system. The calibrated coefficients for such models will depend not only on size of the contaminant plume or tracer experiment at the time of calibration, but will exhibit a size dependency beyond the calibration period. The magnitude of scaling appears to be sufficient to encompass the range of differences between laboratory measurements of dispersivity and model calibrations.     

Rate of soil erosion processes on vineyards in central Piedmont (NW Italy)

The ‘Tertiary Basin of Piedmont’ is a hilly region, mainly composed of marine sediments, such as marls, silts and sands. The slopes, largely devoted to grape production, are usually kept bare of vegetation and are thus prone to soil erosion processes. For two years we have measured soil loss in relation to rainfall on experimental plots located in vineyards. In all the plots considered erosion started with low rainfall intensities (0·07 mm/min), and above 0·4 mm/min the amount of soil loss dramatically increased (to over 1800 g/m in one event). Most of the erosion occurs during summer rainstorms, but the behaviour of the soil under erosive rainfalls is very different from one site to another, depending only in part upon the various rainfall rates, soil and geometrical characteristics of the plots. It can be seen that soil loss varies from nearly negligible values (20 g/m/yr) to unacceptably high levels (to over 4·7 kg/m/yr), according to the different types of land cultivation. Deep ploughing and heavy herbicide treatment give rise to accelerated erosion processes leading to soil losses much higher than in other vineyard plots in Europe.