Exhumation patterns along shallow low‐angle normal faults: an example from the Altotiberina active fault system (Northern Apennines,Italy)

A multi‐method approach (palaeothermal and thermochronological analyses; thermal modelling) is applied to reconstruct the exhumation history of the Altotiberina Fault (ATF), a representative example of crustal‐scale active low‐angle normal faulting in the Northern Apennines (Italy). Thermal maturity and thermochronological data yield similar burial histories but different exhumation patterns for the sedimentary successions in the hangingwall and the footwall of the ATF. Since 3.8 Ma, the ATF footwall has exhumed at rates of 0.90 mm a^?1. Exhumation led to bending and deactivation of the ATF uppermost portion as a result of tectonic unloading and isostatic adjustment, followed by migration of extension and the development of a set of domino‐like, east‐dipping normal faults, rooting on the buried portion of the ATF. ATF activity and isostatic rebound exhumed Triassic rock units from depths of about 4 km. We suggest that isostatic instability is accommodated at shallow crustal levels, in a similar way to what is observed on larger structures at mid‐low crustal levels.     

Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysis

Earthquakes cluster in space and time resulting in nonlinear damage effects. We compute earthquake interactions using the Coulomb stress transfer theory and dynamic vulnerability from the concept of ductility capacity reduction. We combine both processes in the generic multi-risk framework where risk scenarios are simulated using a variant of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We apply the proposed approach to the thrust fault system of northern Italy, considering earthquakes with characteristic magnitudes in the range ~[6, 6.5], different levels of tectonic loading \(\dot{\tau }\) = {10⁻⁴, 10⁻³, 10⁻²} bar/year and a generic stock of fictitious low-rise buildings with different ductility capacities μ _Δ = {2, 4, 6}. We describe the process’ stochasticity by non-stationary Poisson earthquake probabilities and by binomial damage state probabilities. We find that earthquake clustering yields a tail fattening of the seismic risk curve, the effect of which is amplified by damage-dependent fragility due to clustering. The impact of clustering alone is in average more important than dynamic vulnerability, the spatial extent of the former phenomenon being greater than of the latter one.

     

Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds

Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation. In this context, the aim of this paper is exploiting historical landslide and rainfall data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy. The hourly rainfall events that caused landslides occurred in the twentieth century were specifically identified and reconstructed. A procedure was proposed to automatically convert rain guages charts recorded on paper tape into digital format and then to provide the cumulative rainfall hyetograph in digital format. This procedure is based on a segmentation followed by signal recognition techniques which allow to digitalize and to recognize the hyetograph automatically. The role of rainfall prior to the landslide events was taken into account by including in the analysis the rainfall occurred 5, 15 and 30 days before each landslide. Finally, cumulated rainfall duration thresholds for different exceedance probability levels were determined. The obtained thresholds resulted in agreement with the regional curves proposed by other authors for the same area; antecedent rainfall turned out to be particularly important in triggering landslides.     

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2006. During this period, 572 earthquakes and 91 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. Of these earthquakes, two occurred in conjunction with the construction of the new Gotthard railway tunnel and 165 were induced artificially by the stimulation of a proposed geothermal reservoir beneath the city of Basel. With 20 events with M _L ≥ 2.5, five of which were artificially induced, the seismic activity in the year 2006 was far below the average over the previous 31 years. Nevertheless, six events were felt by the public, most prominently the strongest of the induced Basel events (M _L 3.4), which caused some non-structural building damage. Noteworthy are also the two earthquakes near Cortaillod (M _L 3.2), on the shore of Lake Neuchatel, and in Val Mora (M _L 3.5), between the Engadin and Val Müstair, as well as the 42 aftershocks of the M _L 4.9 Vallorcine earthquake, between Martigny and Chamonix, of September 2005. Editorial handling: Stefan Bucher     

Capturing critical behaviour in soil moisture spatio-temporal dynamics

A physical system is subject to a phase transition process when it shows a discontinuous change of a macroscopic feature of the system under a continuous change of a system’s state variable.     

Analysis of sustained long-period activity at Etna Volcano, Italy

Following the installation of a broadband network on Mt. Etna, sustained Long-Period (LP) activity was recorded accompanying a period of total quiescence and the subsequent onset of the 2004–2005 effusive episode. From about 56000 events detected by an automatic classification procedure, we analyse a subset of about 3000 signals spanning the December 17th, 2003–September 25th, 2004, time interval. LP spectra are characterised by several, unevenly-spaced narrow peaks spanning the 0.5–10 Hz frequency band. These peaks are common to all the recording sites of the network, and different from those associated with tremor signals. Throughout the analysed time interval, LP spectra and waveforms maintain significant similarity, thus indicating the involvement of a non-destructive source process that we interpret in terms of the resonance of a fluid-filled buried cavity. Polarisation analysis indicates radiation from a non-isotropic source involving large amounts of shear. Concurrently with LP signals, recordings from the summit station also depict Very-Long-Period (VLP) pulses whose rectilinear motion points to a region located beneath the summit craters at depths ranging between 800 and 1100 m beneath the surface. Based on a refined repicking of similar waveforms, we obtain robust locations for a selected subset of the most energetic LP events from probabilistic inversion of travel-times calculated for a 3D heterogenous structure. LP sources cluster in a narrow volume located beneath the summit craters, and extending to a maximum depth of ≈ 800 m beneath the surface. No causal relationships are observed between LP, VLP and tremor activities and the onset of the 2004–2005 lava effusions, thus indicating that magmatic overpressure played a limited role in triggering this eruption. These data represent the very first observation of LP and VLP activity at Etna during non-eruptive periods, and open the way to the quantitative modelling of the geometry and dynamics of the shallow plumbing system.     

First study of fault trench stratigraphy at Mt. Etna volcano, Southern Italy: understanding Holocene surface faulting along the Moscarello fault

Paleoseismology, the study of past earthquakes based on their geological record in the stratigraphy and landscape, is a successful newly developing field of research. The application of fault trench studies in volcanic environments is one of the youngest branches of paleoseismology. In this paper, we present the results of the first exploratory trenches excavated at Mt. Etna in Sicily, the largest European volcano. Modern surface faulting at Etna is a very well known feature, which poses significant hazard to the local community, both in terms of ground displacement of essential lifelines and ground shacking from frequent damaging earthquakes. However, while the geomorphology and the seismicity of the active fault in the Etna region consistently show very high rates of tectonic activity, the Holocene cumulative throw and slip-rates, along with the nature (coseismic vs. creeping fault slip), dimension and timing of the displacement events, are still poorly constrained. For this purpose, we selected as a sample area the Moscarello fault, one of the most outstanding segment of the Timpe system of active normal faults in the volcano’s lower eastern flank. Displaced landforms and volcanic units at the Fondo Macchia basin, in the central sector of this fault, indicate some hundreds of meters of vertical offset in the last ca. 80 kyr, with a long-term slip-rate substantially higher than 1.5–2.0 mm/yr. According to the historical sources and instrumental observations, the Moscarello fault ruptured four times in the last 150 years during shallow (H < 5 km) and moderate magnitude (M < 4.8) earthquakes. These events were associated with severe damage in a narrow epicentral area (macroseismic intensities up to the IX–X grade of the MSK scale) and extensive surface faulting (end-to-end rupture length up to 6 km, vertical offsets up to 90 cm). This clearly indicates very high modern rates of deformation along this fault. We conducted trench investigations at the Fondo Macchia site, in a point where eyewitnesses observed ca. 20 cm of coseismic vertical displacement after the April 21, 1971, M_s=3.7, earthquake. The excavated sections provided direct stratigraphic evidence for a vertical slip-rate of 1.4–2.7 mm/yr in the last ca. 6 kyr. This should be regarded as a minimum slip-rate for the central section of the fault. We explored a single scarp at a single site, while we know from recent historical observations that several parallel scarps may rupture coseismically at Fondo Macchia. Thus, the relevant deformation rate documented for the modern period might be likely extended back in the past to a time-span of some thousands of years at least. As expected, for such a volcanic environment, the activity rates of the Moscarello fault are also significantly higher than for the Apennines normal faults, typically showing slip-rates lower than 1 mm/yr. The agriculturally reworked trench hangingwall stratigraphy did not allow to recognize individual displacement events. Nevertheless, the sedimentary structures observed in the trench footwall strongly suggest that, as for the last 150–200 years of detailed historical record, fault behavior at Fondo Macchia is governed by coseismic surface displacement rather than fault creep. This research confirms that paleoseismology techniques can be effectively applied also in active volcanic environments, typically characterized by rheology and, consequently, seismicity and fault dynamics very different from those of other tectonic environments in which paleoseismology has been firstly developed and is today extensively applied.     

Effect of the dilution process on the attenuation of contaminants in aquifers

This paper discusses the effects of the dilution process on levels of aquifer contamination attenuation, developing analytical equations for application in theoretical and practical cases. The key finding is that, in aquifers, the dilution process causes a reduction of the contaminant concentration. Analytical equations for the assessment of the contaminant attenuation capacity, by means of the dilution process in an aquifer, are put forward. In particular, the attenuation of the contaminant concentration in an aquifer, and thus the dilution, is described by the volumetric flow rate per unit width perpendicular to the flow direction (q _u). Moreover, a classification of q _u was developed, considering six classes of attenuation capacity due to dilution. For the equations validation, nitrate contamination attenuation due to dilution was analysed in two sample areas in Piedmont (North-West Italy). The results confirmed the hypothesis, evidencing high nitrate concentrations in areas with low q _u values, connected to low dilution rate of the contaminant in the groundwater; vice versa, low nitrate concentrations were evidenced in areas with high q _u values, due to a high nitrate dilution rate.