Probabilistic modelling of auto-correlation characteristics of heterogeneous slopes

Spatial variability of soil materials has long been recognised as an important factor influencing the reliability of geo-structures. This study stochastically investigates the influence of spatial variability of shear strength on the stability of heterogeneous slopes, focusing on the auto-correlation function, auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation between soil parameters. The finite element method is merged with the random field theory to probabilistically evaluate factor of safety and probability of failure via Monte-Carlo simulations. The simulation procedure is explained in detail with suggestions on improving efficiency of the Monte-Carlo process. A simple procedure to create cross-correlation between random variables, which allows direct comparison of the influence of each strength variable, is discussed. The results show that the auto-correlation distance and cross-correlation can significantly influence slope stability, while the choice of auto-correlation function only has a minor effect. An equation relating the probability of failure with the auto-correlation distance is suggested in light of the analyses performed in this work and other results from the literature.     

Residential Patterns in the Pre‐Automotive American City

The classic geographic distinction between situation and site factors suggests that the former will have declined and the latter increased since the late 19th century in their importance as determinants of American urban residential patterns. We test the prediction by examining the relation of socioeconomic status to horizontal and vertical distance from the city center in the largest American cities in 1880. A comparison of the results with the patterns prevalent in the twentieth century largely, though not entirely, supports the prediction, as do changes in the status of main streets and harbor islands.     

Seismic characterization of rigid sites in the ITACA database by ambient vibration monitoring and geological surveys

The problem of seismic characterization of rock-mass or stiff-soil outcrops by the use of passive seismic prospecting techniques is discussed. Difficulties in the application of this kind of procedure in the presence of rugged morphology, high surface wave velocities and low ambient vibration powers, typical of stiff-soil/rock-mass sites are examined. A methodology to face these problems is here proposed, which is based on the strict synergy of detailed geologic surveys and application of robust seismic prospecting techniques, jointly considering single-station and multi-station tools. The application of this approach for the characterization of a number of sites belonging to the Italian Accelerometric Network is described, focusing on two representative case histories.     

A procedure to estimate the seismic hazard in an urban area: an application to Acireale (Eastern Sicily)

A “standard procedure” to characterize the seismic hazard of a given area was proposed. It is based on a multidisciplinary approach implying: (1) the knowledge of the seismic history of the area; (2) detailed geological surveys; (3)seismic noise measurements; (4) simulations of earthquake scenarios. The downtown of Acireale, a typical baroque town located on Eastern Sicily, was chosen as the “test area”. A catalog of the local seismogenic faults (able to generate earthquakes in historical times) has been compiled, as well as a seismic catalog for the effects of both local and regional earthquakes. The analysis of both catalogs allowed us to make the following conclusions: (1) the most important seismogenic faults affecting the Acireale municipality do not affect the downtown, while the related local earthquakes attenuate their energy (and intensity) in short (few km) distances; (2) the highest seismic intensity (degree X) experienced in Acireale downtown was caused by the 1693 regional earthquake; (3) over the last 140 years, the downtown has experienced the highest intensity value of VII only once, while six times the intensity was VI. On the whole, this implies a moderate seismic hazard. The estimation of the seismic hazard has been also approached by the experimental method of recording seismic noise. Measurements have been performed at seven different sites, where drills gave detailed information on the shallow subsurface geology to obtain HV (horizontal/vertical) spectral ratios. On the whole, the highest site amplification factor was moderate (about 7). A further investigation based on synthetic seismograms (and spectra) produced by simulating two given earthquake scenarios was also performed. The two scenarios are, respectively, representative of the largest expected earthquake in the area (the 1693 shock) and of a moderate (magnitude ca. 5.5) local earthquake (as the 1818 one). Moderate to strong locally expected accelerations were evidenced.     

Analysis of fibrous zeolites in the volcanic deposits of the Viterbo Province,Italy

Since Etrurian age, the Viterbo Province (Central Italy) is famous for its ancient towns carved out of local ignimbrite deposits which geologically represent the sedimentation of pumice-rich, volcano-related pyroclastic flows. Almost the entire study area is geologically characterized by a thick succession of ignimbrites, tephra fallouts and lava flow deposits locally subjected to zeolitization. Among zeolites, fibrous erionite represents a well-known health hazard and so this work aims at locating and quantifying the presence of fibrous zeolites in volcanic deposits of the Viterbo area, suggesting at the same time a standard operational procedure useful in other areas showing the same possible hazard. 41 samples collected in the Viterbo area were analyzed by X-ray powder diffraction, optical and electron microscopy. Fibrous zeolites were detected in five samples and quantified in amounts ranging from 0.35 to 1.66% vol. They generally occur in tetragonal or orthorhombic prismatic habit and showed chemical composition mainly consistent with K-phillipsite. Fibrous zeolites occurred with aspect ratios (mean = 6.3), comparable or lower than those of erionite fibers reported in previous studies and mean diameters >3 μm.     

Functional clustering for Italian climate zones identification

This work presents a functional clustering procedure applied to meteorological time series. Our proposal combines time series interpolation with smoothing penalized B-spline and the partitioning around medoids clustering algorithm. Our final goal is to obtain homogeneous climate zones of Italy. We compare this approach to standard methods based on a combination of principal component analysis and Cluster Analysis (CA) and we discuss it in relation to other functional clustering approaches based on Fourier analysis and CA. We show that a functional approach is simpler than the standard methods from a methodological and interpretability point of view. Indeed, it becomes natural to find a clear connection between mathematical results and physical variability mechanisms. We discuss how the choice of the basis expansion (splines, Fourier) affects the analysis and propose some comments on their use. The basis for classification is formed by monthly values of temperature and precipitation recorded during the period 1971–2000 over 95 and 94 Italian monitoring stations, respectively. An assessment based on climatic patterns is presented to prove the consistency of the clustering and a comparison of results obtained with different methods is used to judge the functional data approach.     

Venus gravity: Analysis of Beta Regio

Radio tracking data acquired over Beta Regio were analyzed to obtain a surface mass distribution from which a detailed vertical gravity field was derived. In addition, a corresponding vertical gravity field was evaluated solely from the topography of the Beta region. A comparison of these two maps confirms the strong correlation between gravity and topography which was previously seen in line-of-sight gravity maps. It also demonstrates that the observed gravity is a significant fraction of that predicted from the topography alone. The effective depth of complete isostatic compensation for the Beta region is estimated to be 330 km, which is somewhat deeper than that found for other areas of Venus.     

Theoretical interpretation of the ground-based photometry of Saturn's B ring

New photographic photometry at small tilt angles during the 1979 and 1981 apparitions is combined with earlier data to yield several physical parameters for Saturn's B ring in red and blue colors. Phase curves are obtained for a mean tilt angle B ? 6°. The value of the volume density D is 0.020±0.004 with no indication of dependence on either the color or the tilt angle for 6°<B<26°. This conclusion is not altered significantly if the individual ring particles have a phase function similar to the phase curves of bright solar system objects. For the geometric albedo of a single particle we derive 0.61±0.04 (red) and 0.41±0.03 (blue), which are superior to earlier estimates because of the additional data now available. These values and the derived amount of multiple scattering as a function of tilt angle constrain the particle phase function in the red to be moderately backscattering. Inferred values of the particle single-scattering albedo are $\text{0.7≤}\text{ω}{}_0\text{(}\text{red}\text{) ≤0.92}$ and $\text{0.5≤}\text{ω}{}_0\text{(}\text{blue}\text{) ≤0.7}$, depending on the choice of phase function. No indication was found that the particle photometric properties might depend on the vertical distance from the central plane. Our results show that the ground-based photometry is entirely consistent with the classical, many-particle-thick ring model.     

Effectiveness of geophysical surveys for water wells relocation in overexploited aquifers (the example of Maggiore and Traversola Valleys,Northwestern Italy)

Aquifer overexploitation is a common problem in drinking water management. This will become more and more important given the general reduction of water resources. To overcome overexploitation, one of the most adopted solutions is the relocation of extraction wells. To establish the positions of new wells, a precise knowledge of the hydrogeological setting is required. Specific surveys are therefore necessary to obtain information over wide investigation zones. Geophysical methods, particularly electromagnetic and electrical, can be useful with this aim. In the present paper a case history on the combined use of Electric Resistivity Tomography and Time Domain Electromagnetic soundings is reported. Surveys have been performed within the Maggiore and Traversola Valleys, to investigate the uppermost part of the Quaternary deposits, hosting the near surface aquifer. The electromagnetic data have been inverted with a spatially constrained approach by assuming a quasi 1D model of the subsurface. Geophysical surveys allowed for depicting the depth and lateral continuity of the supposed aquifer level in the surveyed area up to a depth of about 200 m and proposing potential positions for well relocation.     

Monitoring Seismo-volcanic and Infrasonic Signals at Volcanoes: Mt. Etna Case Study

Volcanoes generate a broad range of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals, whose features and variations are often closely related to volcanic activity. The study of these signals is hence very useful in the monitoring and investigation of volcano dynamics. The analysis of seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals requires specifically developed techniques due to their unique characteristics, which are generally quite distinct compared with tectonic and volcano-tectonic earthquakes. In this work, we describe analysis methods used to detect and locate seismo-volcanic and infrasonic signals at Mt. Etna. Volcanic tremor sources are located using a method based on spatial seismic amplitude distribution, assuming propagation in a homogeneous medium. The tremor source is found by calculating the goodness of the linear regression fit (R ²) of the log-linearized equation of the seismic amplitude decay with distance. The location method for long-period events is based on the joint computation of semblance and R ² values, and the location method of very long-period events is based on the application of radial semblance. Infrasonic events and tremor are located by semblance–brightness- and semblance-based methods, respectively. The techniques described here can also be applied to other volcanoes and do not require particular network geometries (such as arrays) but rather simple sparse networks. Using the source locations of all the considered signals, we were able to reconstruct the shallow plumbing system (above sea level) during 2011.