Can the uncertainty of full carbon accounting of forest ecosystems be made acceptable to policymakers?

In accordance with the concept that only full accounting of major greenhouse gases corresponds to the goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, this paper considers uncertainties of regional (national) terrestrial biota Full Carbon Accounting (FCA), both those already achieved and those expected. We analyze uncertainties of major components of the FCA of forest ecosystems of a large boreal region in Siberia (~300 × 10⁶ ha). Some estimates for forests of other regions and Russia as a whole are used for comparison. The systems integration of available information sources and different types of models within the landscape-ecosystem approach are shown to have enabled an estimation of the major carbon fluxes (Net Primary Production, NPP, and heterotrophic respiration, HR) for the region for a single year at the level of 7–12% (confidential interval, CI, 0.9), Net Ecosystem Production (NEP) of 35–40%, and Net Biome Production (NBP) of 60–80%. The most uncertain aspect is the assessment of change in the soil carbon pool, which limits practical application of a pool-based approach. Regionalization of global process-based models, introduction of climatic data in empirical models, use of an appropriate time period for accounting and reporting, harmonization and multiple constraints of estimates obtained by different independent methods decrease the above uncertainties of NEP and NBP by about half. The results of this study support the idea that FCA of forest ecosystems is relevant in the post-Kyoto international negotiation process.     

Eigen analysis of tree-ring records: Part 1, a limited representativeness of regional curve

Based on a set of very long-living (2,000?years) Qilian junipers (Sabina przewalskii Kom.) from the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau (the region of Dulan), we carefully consider the regional curve standardization (RCS) technique. For this goal, we correlate deviations of individual tree-ring width records from their regional mean age-dependent curve (RC). It turns out that these correlations keep their positivity for almost all shifts between ages compared (up to 500?years and even more) evidencing each Dulan juniper to be a unique ??thermometer??. Just the unification of these ??thermometers?? in the form RC creates a spurious positive trend in the Dulan chronology. We modify the RCS technique to closer attach RC to these ??thermometers?? in order to construct a new chronology in which the trend is absent.     

Connectivity of the Apalachicola River flow variability and the physical and bio-optical oceanic properties of the northern West Florida Shelf

Maps of satellite-derived estimates of monthly averaged chlorophyll a concentration over the northern West Florida Shelf show interannual variations concentrated near the coastline, but also extending offshore over the shelf in a tongue-like pattern from the Apalachicola River during the late winter and early spring. These anomalies are significantly correlated with interannual variability in the flow rate of the Apalachicola River, which is linked to the precipitation anomalies over the watershed, over a region extending 150–200 km offshore out to roughly the 100 m isobath. This study examines the variability of the Apalachicola River and its impacts on the variability of water properties over the northern West Florida Shelf. A series of numerical model experiments show that episodic wind-driven offshore transport of the Apalachicola River plume is a likely physical mechanism for connecting the variability of the river discharge with oceanic variability over the middle and outer shelf.     

Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic Modelling and Inversion from Theory to Application

The whole subject of three-dimensional (3-D) electromagnetic (EM) modelling and inversion has experienced a tremendous progress in the last decade. Accordingly there is an increased need for reviewing the recent, and not so recent, achievements in the field. In the first part of this review paper I consider the finite-difference, finite-element and integral equation approaches that are presently applied for the rigorous numerical solution of fully 3-D EM forward problems. I mention the merits and drawbacks of these approaches, and focus on the most essential aspects of numerical implementations, such as preconditioning and solving the resulting systems of linear equations. I refer to some of the most advanced, state-of-the-art, solvers that are today available for such important geophysical applications as induction logging, airborne and controlled-source EM, magnetotellurics, and global induction studies. Then, in the second part of the paper, I review some of the methods that are commonly used to solve 3-D EM inverse problems and analyse current implementations of the methods available. In particular, I also address the important aspects of nonlinear Newton-type optimisation techniques and computation of gradients and sensitivities associated with these problems.     

A steady state of the disc dynamo

Abstract

We discuss the steady states of the αω-dynamo in a thin disc which arise due to α-quenching. Two asymptotic regimes are considered, one for the dynamo numberD near the generation thresholdD ₀, and the other for |D| ? 1. Asymptotic solutions for |D—D ₀| ? |D ₀| have a rather universal character provided only that the bifurcation is supercritical. For |D| ? 1 the asymptotic solution crucially depends on whether or not the mean helicity α, as a function ofB, has a positive root (hereB is the mean magnetic field). When such a root exists, the field value in the major portion of the disc is O(l), while near the disc surface thin boundary layers appear where the field rapidly decreases to zero (if the disc is surrounded by vacuum). Otherwise, when α = O(|B|^?s) for |B| → ∞, we demonstrate that |B| = O(|D|^1/s ) and the solution is free of boundary layers. The results obtained here admit direct comparison with observations of magnetic fields in spiral galaxies, so that an appropriate model of nonlinear galactic dynamos hopefully could be specified.     

Combined Effects of Tectonic and Landslide-Generated Tsunami Runup at Seward, Alaska During the M W 9.2 1964 Earthquake

We apply a recently developed and validated numerical model of tsunami propagation and runup to study the inundation of Resurrection Bay and the town of Seward by the 1964 Alaska tsunami. Seward was hit by both tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami waves during the $M_{\rm W}$ 9.2 1964 megathrust earthquake. The earthquake triggered a series of submarine mass failures around the fjord, which resulted in landsliding of part of the coastline into the water, along with the loss of the port facilities. These submarine mass failures generated local waves in the bay within 5?min of the beginning of strong ground motion. Recent studies estimate the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay to be about 211?million m³ (Haeussler et?al. in Submarine mass movements and their consequences, pp 269?C278, 2007). The first tectonic tsunami wave arrived in Resurrection Bay about 30?min after the main shock and was about the same height as the local landslide-generated waves. Our previous numerical study, which focused only on the local landslide-generated waves in Resurrection Bay, demonstrated that they were produced by a number of different slope failures, and estimated relative contributions of different submarine slide complexes into tsunami amplitudes (Suleimani et?al. in Pure Appl Geophys 166:131?C152, 2009). This work extends the previous study by calculating tsunami inundation in Resurrection Bay caused by the combined impact of landslide-generated waves and the tectonic tsunami, and comparing the composite inundation area with observations. To simulate landslide tsunami runup in Seward, we use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (J Phys Oceanogr 24(3):559?C572, 1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations. The input data set includes a high resolution multibeam bathymetry and LIDAR topography grid of Resurrection Bay, and an initial thickness of slide material based on pre- and post-earthquake bathymetry difference maps. For simulation of tectonic tsunami runup, we derive the 1964 coseismic deformations from detailed slip distribution in the rupture area, and use them as an initial condition for propagation of the tectonic tsunami. The numerical model employs nonlinear shallow water equations formulated for depth-averaged water fluxes, and calculates a temporal position of the shoreline using a free-surface moving boundary algorithm. We find that the calculated tsunami runup in Seward caused first by local submarine landslide-generated waves, and later by a tectonic tsunami, is in good agreement with observations of the inundation zone. The analysis of inundation caused by two different tsunami sources improves our understanding of their relative contributions, and supports tsunami risk mitigation in south-central Alaska. The record of the 1964 earthquake, tsunami, and submarine landslides, combined with the high-resolution topography and bathymetry of Resurrection Bay make it an ideal location for studying tectonic tsunamis in coastal regions susceptible to underwater landslides.     

FESOM under coordinated ocean-ice reference experiment forcing

Characteristics of the ocean state simulated with the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) under the normalized year forcing of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs; Griffies et al., Ocean Model 26:1–46, 2009) are compared with those of other models participating in COREs. In contrast to these models, FESOM is run on an unstructured mesh (with resolution varying between 20 and 150 km). It is shown that the ocean state simulated by FESOM is in most cases within the spread of other models, demonstrating that the unstructured mesh technology has reached the stage when it becomes a reliable tool for studying the large-scale ocean general circulation.     

Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone

A coupled ocean and boundary layer flux numerical modeling system is used to study the upper ocean response to surface heat and momentum fluxes associated with a major hurricane, namely, Hurricane Dennis (July 2005) in the Gulf of Mexico. A suite of experiments is run using this modeling system, constructed by coupling a Navy Coastal Ocean Model simulation of the Gulf of Mexico to an atmospheric flux model. The modeling system is forced by wind fields produced from satellite scatterometer and atmospheric model wind data, and by numerical weather prediction air temperature data. The experiments are initialized from a data assimilative hindcast model run and then forced by surface fluxes with no assimilation for the time during which Hurricane Dennis impacted the region. Four experiments are run to aid in the analysis: one is forced by heat and momentum fluxes, one by only momentum fluxes, one by only heat fluxes, and one with no surface forcing. An equation describing the change in the upper ocean hurricane heat potential due to the storm is developed. Analysis of the model results show that surface heat fluxes are primarily responsible for widespread reduction (0.5°–1.5°C) of sea surface temperature over the inner West Florida Shelf 100–300 km away from the storm center. Momentum fluxes are responsible for stronger surface cooling (2°C) near the center of the storm. The upper ocean heat loss near the storm center of more than 200 MJ/m² is primarily due to the vertical flux of thermal energy between the surface layer and deep ocean. Heat loss to the atmosphere during the storm’s passage is approximately 100–150 MJ/m². The upper ocean cooling is enhanced where the preexisting mixed layer is shallow, e.g., within a cyclonic circulation feature, although the heat flux to the atmosphere in these locations is markedly reduced.