Controllability and observability in two-phase porous media flow

Reservoir simulation models are frequently used to make decisions on well locations, recovery optimization strategies, etc. The success of these applications is, among other aspects, determined by the controllability and observability properties of the reservoir model. In this paper, it is shown how the controllability and observability of two-phase flow reservoir models can be analyzed and quantified with aid of generalized empirical Gramians. The empirical controllability Gramian can be interpreted as a spatial covariance of the states (pressures or saturations) in the reservoir resulting from input perturbations in the wells. The empirical observability Gramian can be interpreted as a spatial covariance of the measured bottom-hole pressures or well bore flow rates resulting from state perturbations. Based on examples in the form of simple homogeneous and heterogeneous reservoir models, we conclude that the position of the wells and of the front between reservoir fluids, and to a lesser extent the position and shape of permeability heterogeneities that impact the front, are the most important factors that determine the local controllability and observability properties of the reservoir.     

Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity and Its Uncertainty from Grain-Size Data Using GLUE and Artificial Neural Networks

Various approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods??multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks??that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for K _s prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict K _s from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from the literature demonstrates the importance of site-specific calibration. The data set used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size K _s-pairs. Finally, an application with the optimised models is presented for a borehole lacking K _s data.     

Variscan orogeny in Corsica: new structural and geochronological insights,and its place in the Variscan geodynamic framework

In Western Corsica, remnants of pre-batholitic lithological and metamorphic assemblages are preserved as km-scale septa enclosed within Lower Carboniferous to Early Permian plutons. Two groups of septa were recognized: (1) the Argentella and Agriates-Tenda fragments correspond to Neoproterozoic rocks deformed and metamorphosed during the Cadomian–Panafrican orogeny, and (2) the Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, Solenzara–Fautea, Belgodère, Topiti, and Vignola fragments consist of Variscan metamorphic rocks. The lithological content and the main ductile deformation events for each septum are presented. In the Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, and Topiti septa, a top-to-the-SW ductile shearing (D1 event) coeval with an amphibolite facies metamorphism is responsible for crustal thickening at ca 360 Ma. This main event was preceded by eclogite and granulite facies metamorphic events preserved as restites within migmatites dated at ca 345–330 Ma. A top-to-the-SE ductile shearing (D2 event) coeval with the crustal melting accommodated the exhumation of the D1 event. In contrast, the Belgodère segment is peculiar as it exhibits a top-to-the-E vergence, although retrogressed high-pressure rocks are also recognized. The pre-Permian fragments are arranged in four NW–SE-striking stripes that define a SW–NE zoning with (1) a Western domain in Topiti, Vignola, Zicavo, Porto-Vecchio, and Solenzara–Fautea; (2) a Neoproterozoic basement with its unconformable Early Paleozoic sedimentary cover in Argentella; (3) an Eastern metamorphic domain in Belgodère; (4) another Neoproterozoic basement with its Upper Paleozoic sedimentary cover in Agriates-Tenda. The Argentella basement is separated from the Western and Eastern domains by two sutures: S1 and S2. The Variscan Corsica represents the Eastern part of the Sardinia–Corsica–Maures segment. The comparison of this segment with other Variscan domains allows us to propose some possible correlations. We argue that the Western domain, Argentella, Belgodère, and Agriates-Tenda domains can be compared with the Southern Variscan belt exposed in French Massif Central–Southern Massif Armoricain, Armorica microblock, Léon block, respectively.     

Satellite-based peatland mapping: Potential of the MODIS sensor

Peatlands play a major role in the global carbon cycle but are largely overlooked in current large-scale vegetation mapping efforts. In this study, we investigated the potential of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to capture the extent and distribution of peatlands in the St. Petersburg region of Russia by analyzing the relationships between peatland cover fractions derived from reference maps and  1-km resolution MODIS Nadir BRDF-Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR) data from year 2002.First, we characterized and mapped 50 peatlands from forest inventory and peat deposit inventory data. The peatlands represent three major nutritional types (oligotrophic, mesotrophic, eutrophic) and different sizes (0.6–7800 ha). In addition, parts of 6 peatlands were mined for peat and these were mapped separately. The reference maps provided information on peatland cover for 1105 MODIS pixels. We performed regression analysis on 50% of the pixels and reserved the remainder for model validation. Canonical correlation analysis on the MODIS reflectance bands and the peatland cover fractions produced a multi-spectral peatland cover index (PCI), which served as the predictor in a reduced major axis (RMA) regression model. The results suggest a high potential for mapping peatlands with MODIS. The RMA regression models explained much of the variance in the PCI (r² = 0.74 for mined and r² = 0.81 for unmined peatlands). Model validation showed high correlation between observed versus predicted peatland cover (mined: r = 0.87; unmined: r = 0.92). We used the models to derive peatland cover estimates for the St. Petersburg region and compared the results to current MODIS land cover maps.     

Designing a long-term flood risk management plan for the Scheldt estuary using a risk-based approach

The Scheldt is a tidal river that originates in France and flows through Belgium and the Netherlands. The tides create significant flood risks in both the Flemish region in Belgium and the Netherlands. Due to sea level rise and economic development, flood risks will increase during this century. This is the main reason for the Flemish government to update its flood risk management plan. For this purpose, the Flemish government requested a cost-benefit analysis of flood protection measures, considering long-term developments. Measures evaluated include a storm surge barrier, dyke heightening and additional floodplains with or without the development of wetlands. Some of these measures affect the flood risk in both countries. As policies concerning the limitation of flood risk differ significantly between the Netherlands and Flanders, distinctive methodologies were used to estimate the impacts of measures on flood risk. A risk-based approach was applied for Flanders by calculating the impacts of flood damage at different levels of recurrence, for the base year (2000) and in case of a sea level rise of 60 cm by 2100. Policy within the Netherlands stipulates a required minimal protection level along the Scheldt against storms with a recurrence period of 1 in 4,000 years. It was estimated how flood protection measures would delay further dyke heightening, which is foreseen as protection levels are presently decreasing due to rising sea levels. Impacts of measures (safety benefits) consist of delays in further dyke heightening. The results illustrate the importance of sea level rise. Flood risks increased fivefolds when a sea level rise of 60 cm was applied. Although more drastic measures such as a storm surge barrier near Antwerp offer more protection for very extreme storms, a combination of dykes and floodplains can offer higher benefits at lower costs.     

Effective precipitation in southern Spain ( 266 to 46 ka) based on a speleothem stable carbon isotope record

We present the longest-duration directly dated terrestrial palaeoclimate record from the western Mediterranean region: a flowstone speleothem from Gitana Cave, southeast Spain. The main phase of growth was 274 to 58 ka, dated by multi-collector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS) U-series methods. Effective precipitation, which we consider primarily responsible for flowstone calcite δ¹³C variations, measured at 300 μm resolution, was higher during interglacials associated with marine oxygen isotope stages (MIS) 7 and 5, and lower during glacial MIS 6. There is a close correspondence between speleothem δ¹³C and sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from adjacent Atlantic Ocean cores during MIS 6, which implies that oceanic conditions are critical in controlling the western Mediterranean terrestrial moisture balance during glacial periods. Other features of our record, such as the sequence of termination II warming/moistening between approximately 133 and 127 ka, including a “pause” around 130–128 ka, and the lagged termination of MIS 5 warm intervals (5e, 5c and 5a) are similar to other terrestrial records within the Mediterranean basin, indicating climate synchroneity along the northern Mediterranean coast. The Gitana cave region also may have been a refugium for temperate species during short-lived cold/arid periods during MIS 5.     

Early Holocene M~6 explosive eruption from Plosky volcanic massif (Kamchatka) and its tephra as a link between terrestrial and marine paleoenvironmental records

We report tephrochronological and geochemical data on early Holocene activity from Plosky volcanic massif in the Kliuchevskoi volcanic group, Kamchatka Peninsula. Explosive activity of this volcano lasted for ~1.5 kyr, produced a series of widely dispersed tephra layers, and was followed by profuse low-viscosity lava flows. This eruptive episode started a major reorganization of the volcanic structures in the western part of the Kliuchevskoi volcanic group. An explosive eruption from Plosky (M~6), previously unstudied, produced tephra (coded PL2) of a volume of 10–12 km³ (11–13 Gt), being one of the largest Holocene explosive eruptions in Kamchatka. Characteristic diagnostic features of the PL2 tephra are predominantly vitric sponge-shaped fragments with rare phenocrysts and microlites of plagioclase, olivine and pyroxenes, medium- to high-K basaltic andesitic bulk composition, high-K, high-Al and high-P trachyandesitic glass composition with SiO₂ = 57.5–59.5 wt%, K₂O = 2.3–2.7 wt%, Al₂O₃ = 15.8–16.5 wt%, and P₂O₅ = 0.5–0.7 wt%. Other diagnostic features include a typical subduction-related pattern of incompatible elements, high concentrations of all REE (>10× mantle values), moderate enrichment in LREE (La/Yb ~ 5.3), and non-fractionated mantle-like pattern of LILE. Geochemical fingerprinting of the PL2 tephra with the help of EMP and LA-ICP-MS analyses allowed us to map its occurrence in terrestrial sections across Kamchatka and to identify this layer in Bering Sea sediment cores at a distance of >600 km from the source. New high-precision ¹⁴C dates suggest that the PL2 eruption occurred ~10,200 cal BP, which makes it a valuable isochrone for early Holocene climate fluctuations and permits direct links between terrestrial and marine paleoenvironmental records. The terrestrial and marine ¹⁴C dates related to the PL2 tephra have allowed us to estimate an early Holocene reservoir age for the western Bering Sea at 1,410 ± 64 ¹⁴C years. Another important tephra from the early Holocene eruptive episode of Plosky volcano, coded PL1, was dated at 11,650 cal BP. This marker is the oldest geochemically characterized and dated tephra marker layer in Kamchatka to date and is an important local marker for the Younger Dryas—early Holocene transition. One more tephra from Plosky, coded PL3, can be used as a marker northeast of the source at a distance of ~110 km.     

Barotropic and baroclinic processes in the transport variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Synoptic scale variability of the Southern Ocean wind field in the high-frequency range of barotropic Rossby waves results in transport variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which are highly coherent with the bottom pressure field all around the Antarctic continent. The coherence pattern, in contrast to the steady state ACC, is steered by the geostrophic f/h contours passing through Drake Passage and circling closely around the continent. At lower frequencies, with interannual and decadal periods, the correlation with the bottom pressure continues, but baroclinic processes gain importance. For periods exceeding a few years, variations of the ACC transport are in geostrophic balance with the pressure field associated with the baroclinic potential energy stored in the stratification, whereas bottom pressure plays a minor role. The low-frequency variability of the ACC transport is correlated with the baroclinic state variable in the entire Southern Ocean, mediated by baroclinic topographic–planetary Rossby waves that are not bound to f/h contours. To clarify the processes of wave dynamics and pattern correlation, we apply a circulation model with simplified physics (the barotropic–baroclinic-interaction model BARBI) and use two types of wind forcing: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) wind field with integrations spanning three decades and an artificial wind field constructed from the first three empirical orthogonal functions of NCEP combined with a temporal variability according to an autoregressive process. Experiments with this Southern Annular Mode type forcing have been performed for 1,800 years. We analyze the spin-up, trends, and variability of the model runs. Particular emphasis is placed on coherence and correlation patterns between the ACC transport, the wind forcing, the bottom pressure field and the pressure associated with the baroclinic potential energy. A stochastic dynamical model is developed that describes the dominant barotropic and baroclinic processes and represents the spectral properties for a wide range of frequencies, from monthly periods to hundreds of years.