Geosimulation of urban growth and demographic decline in the Ruhr: a case study for 2025 using the artificial intelligence of cells and agents

The Ruhr is an “old acquaintance” in the discourse of urban decline in old industrialized cities. The agglomeration has to struggle with archetypical problems of former monofunctional manufacturing cities. Surprisingly, the image of a shrinking city has to be refuted if you shift the focus from socioeconomic wealth to its morphological extension. Thus, it is the objective of this study to meet the challenge of modeling urban sprawl and demographic decline by combining two artificial intelligent solutions: The popular urban cellular automaton SLEUTH simulates urban growth using four simple but effective growth rules. In order to improve its performance, SLEUTH has been modified among others by combining it with a robust probability map based on support vector machines. Additionally, a complex multi-agent system is developed to simulate residential mobility in a shrinking city agglomeration: residential mobility and the housing market of shrinking city systems focuses on the dynamic of interregional housing markets implying the development of potential dwelling areas. The multi-agent system comprises the simulation of population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking city agglomerations. Both models are calibrated and validated regarding their localization and quantification performance. Subsequently, the urban landscape configuration and composition of the Ruhr 2025 are simulated. A simple spatial join is used to combine the results serving as valuable inputs for future regional planning in the context of multifarious demographic change and preceding urban growth.     

Evidence for Amazonian acidic liquid water on Mars—A reinterpretation of MER mission results

The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) missions have confirmed aqueous activity on Mars. Here we review the analyses of the field-based MER data, and conclude that some weathering processes in Meridiani Planum and Gusev crater are better explained by late diagenetic water-rock interactions than by early diagenesis only. At Meridiani, the discovery of jarosite by MER-1 Opportunity indicates acidic aqueous activity, evaporation, and desiccation of rock materials. MER-based information, placed into the context of published data, point to local and limited aqueous activity during geologically recent times in Meridiani. Pre-Amazonian environmental changes (including important variations in the near-surface groundwater reservoirs, impact cratering, and global dust storms and other pervasive wind-related erosion) are too extreme for pulverulent jarosite to survive over extended time periods, and therefore we argue instead that jarosite deposits must have formed in a climatically more stable period. Any deposits of pre-existent concretionary jarosite surviving up to the Amazonian would not have reached completion in the highly saline and acidic brines occurring at Meridiani. MER-2 Spirit has also revealed evidence for local and limited Amazonian aqueous environmental conditions in Gusev crater, including chemical weathering leading to goethite and hematite precipitation, rock layering, and chemical enhancement of Cl, S, Br, and oxidized iron in rocks and soils. The estimated relative age of the impact crater materials in Gusev indicates that these processes have taken place during the last 2 billion years. We conclude that minor amounts of shallow acidic liquid water have been present on the surface of Mars at local scales during the Amazonian Period.     

Possibilities for the detection of hydrogen peroxide-water-based life on Mars by the Phoenix Lander

The Phoenix Lander landed on Mars on 25 May 2008. It has instruments on board to explore the geology and climate of subpolar Mars and to explore if life ever arose on Mars. Although the Phoenix mission is not a life detection mission per se, it will look for the presence of organic compounds and other evidence to support or discredit the notion of past or present life.The possibility of extant life on Mars has been raised by a reinterpretation of the Viking biology experiments [Houtkooper, J. M., Schulze-Makuch, D., 2007. A possible biogenic origin for hydrogen peroxide on Mars: the Viking results reinterpreted. International Journal of Astrobiology 6, 147-152]. The results of these experiments are in accordance with life based on a mixture of water and hydrogen peroxide instead of water. The near-surface conditions on Mars would give an evolutionary advantage to organisms employing a mixture of H₂O₂ and H₂O in their intracellular fluid: the mixture has a low freezing point, is hygroscopic and provides a source of oxygen. The H₂O₂-H₂O hypothesis also explains the Viking results in a logically consistent way. With regard to its compatibility with cellular contents, H₂O₂ is used for a variety of purposes in terran biochemistry. The ability of the anticipated organisms to withstand low temperatures and the relatively high water vapor content of the atmosphere in the Martian arctic, means that Phoenix will land in an area not inimical to H₂O₂-H₂O-based life. Phoenix has a suite of instruments which may be able to detect the signatures of such putative organisms.     

Phytoplankton,protozooplankton and nutrient dynamics in the Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea) in 2002–2003 during the German GLOBEC Project

From March 2002 to until April 2003 we investigated the seasonal nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics in the central Bornholm Basin (Baltic Sea) within the framework of the German GLOBEC Project. We choose a nested approach consisting of vertical fluorescence profiles, phytoplankton counts and nutrient analyses. The Fluoroprobe (MultiProbe, BBE Moldaenke) is capable of distinguishing four algal groups (Cryptophyceae, Cyanophyceae, Chlorophyceae, Bacillariophyceae + Dinophyceae). Winter nutrient concentrations were about 5 μM NO₃ and 0.5 μM PO₄ in the central Basin. The spring phytoplankton bloom was dominated by the diatom Skeletonema sp. and reached a maximum of about 270 μg C/l before the onset of the seasonal stratification. Protozooplankton was dominated by the Mesodinium rubrum (a phototrophic ciliate = Myrionecta rubra) and reached a maximum biomass of about 200–300 μg C/l about 2 weeks after the demise of the diatom spring bloom. During summer, the water column was stratified and a subsurface maximum developed near the thermocline consisting of Bacillariophyceae, Cryptophycea and other phototrophic flagellates. Phytoplankton and protozooplankton biomass was generally low. Nutrient concentrations point towards a nitrogen limitation during this period. The stratification period ended during September and surface nutrient concentrations increased again. Protozooplankton reached a second maximum during September. With the Fluoroprobe small scale structures in the plankton community could be detected like a subsurface Cryptophyceae maximum near the thermocline that however, could not be confirmed by cell counts. The chlorophyll a estimate of the Fluoroprobe was in good agreement with the phytoplankton biomass estimated from counts. We conclude that only by combining modern sensing technology with microscopy, the small-scale dynamics and taxonomic spectrum of the plankton can be fully captured.     

Ancient charcoal as a natural archive for paleofire regime and vegetation change in the Mayumbe,Democratic Republic of the Congo

Charcoal was sampled in four soil profiles at the Mayumbe forest boundary (DRC). Five fire events were recorded and 44 charcoal types were identified. One stratified profile yielded charcoal assemblages around 530 cal yr BP and > 43.5 cal ka BP in age. The oldest assemblage precedes the period of recorded anthropogenic burning, illustrating occasional long-term absence of fire but also natural wildfire occurrences within tropical rainforest. No other charcoal assemblages older than 2500 cal yr BP were recorded, perhaps due to bioturbation and colluvial reworking. The recorded paleofires were possibly associated with short-lived climate anomalies. Progressively dry climatic conditions since ca. 4000 cal yr BP onward did not promote paleofire occurrence until increasing seasonality affected vegetation at the end of the third millennium BP, as illustrated by a fire occurring in mature rainforest that persisted until around 2050 cal yr BP. During a drought episode coinciding with the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’, mature rainforest was locally replaced by woodland savanna. Charcoal remains from pioneer forest indicate that fire hampered forest regeneration after climatic drought episodes. The presence of pottery shards and oil-palm endocarps associated with two relatively recent paleofires suggests that the effects of climate variability were amplified by human activities.     

Computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy: A fast and reliable tool for diamond prospecting

Computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy is introduced as a faster, reliably and cost-reducing alternative to conventional electron microprobe analyses on kimberlite indicator minerals. The method is based on conventional scanning electron microscopy and energy dispersive X-ray spectrometry, but due to extended counting times, optimised settings and computer-controlled particle recognition valid data can be obtained on a low amount of operator and machine time. A comparison of the results between both methods yields that computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy is able to investigate major and minor element concentrations in indicator minerals with almost the same precision as the electron microprobe.     

Effect of soil crusting on the emission and transport of wind-eroded sediment: field measurements on loamy sandy soil

Field data are reported for the horizontal and vertical flux of wind-eroded sediment on an agricultural field in northern Germany. Measurements were made during a windstorm that hit the region on 18 May 1999. The magnitude of both fluxes was significantly affected by the presence of a surface crust covering the test field. Measuring the physical crust strength at 45 locations with a torvane, the relationships between crust strength (τ) and the horizontal (F_h) and vertical (F_v) sediment fluxes were investigated. Both fluxes decreased as the surface crust became stronger. The decay behaved as an exponential function for both types of flux. The horizontal sediment flux over a crusted surface can be accurately predicted by completing Marticorena and Bergametti's [Journal of Geophysical Research 100 (1995) 16415] erosion model with a crust function. The vertical particle flux over crusted soil can be calculated by adding a similar function to Alfaro and Gomes's [Journal of Geophysical Research 106D (2001) 18075] dust production model. The study also suggests that the gradual bombardment of a surface crust by impacting particles does not immediately result in a decay of the crust's protective effect, provided that the crust has a minimum thickness. However, once the crust becomes perforated, its protective effect disappears very quickly, leading to much higher horizontal and vertical sediment fluxes than predicted for undamaged crusted soil.     

Efficient finite-difference modelling of seismic waves using locally adjustable time steps

Conventional finite-difference modelling algorithms for seismic forward modelling are based on a time-stepping scheme with a constant (global) time step. Large contrasts in the velocity model or in the spatial sampling rate cause oversampling in time for some regions of the model. The use of locally adjustable time steps can save large amounts of computation time for certain modelling configurations. The computation of spatial derivatives across the transition zone between regions of the model with different temporal sampling requires the definition of the wavefield at corresponding time levels on both sides of the transition zone. This condition can be obtained by extrapolation in time, which is inaccurate, or by multiple time integration in the transition zone. The error in the latter solution is of the same order as the conventional time-stepping scheme because both methods are based on the same iteration formula. The technique of multiple time integration simply requires the use of different sizes of time step. It is applicable only for certain factors of variation of the time step.