Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson     

孟加拉湾晚第四纪的碳酸盐溶解旋回

孟加拉湾由于陆源物质大量输入产生稀释效应,使碳酸盐含量表现为冰期时减小、间冰期时增大的“大西洋型”旋回。通过对该区四支活塞岩芯的有孔虫溶解指数、浮游有孔虫沉积通量、CaCO₃ 沉积通量和 >16 0 μm粗组分沉积通量的分析发现,研究区碳酸盐溶解作用强烈,表现出冰期减弱而间冰期增强的总趋势,且溶解作用滞后于浮游有孔虫壳的氧同位素旋回,尤以氧同位素 4、5期的高溶解度情况与印度洋和太平洋氧同位素 5期晚期至 4期为CaCO₃溶解高峰一致。因此,孟加拉湾地区的CaCO₃ 旋回是大西洋型稀释作用与太平洋型溶解作用两者叠加的产物.     

纪念中国发现钾盐40年

中国察尔汗钾盐矿床是在开发柴达木盆地进程中由筑路工人提供线索，１９５６年，化工部派员初步确定，１９５７年“中国科学院盐湖科学考查队”进行初步评价得以证实的。首次发现的钾盐是一种人工盐坑中新生的含钾光卤石矿物     

Kohonen网络与BP网络的集成应用研究

本文介绍了 Kohonen神经网络对输入数据进行聚类方法在卷烟配方中的应用 ,提出了从核心样本动态搜索 BP网络训练样本的新探索 ,摒弃了过去 BP算法中训练样本固定不变 ,互不相交的方法 ,实现了 BP网络和 Kohonen网络动态无缝集成。     

2.5Ma以来地球轨道参数变化对黄土粒度变化的线性驱动

本文对2.5Ma以来宝鸡黄土剖面粒度曲线与ETP曲线做了互功率谱和凝聚函数分析,以期反映风力强度与地球轨道参数变化的关系。结果表明,2.5Ma以来粒度记录中始终存在着与地轴倾斜度、岁差呈线性响应的41000a、23000a和19000a周期;同时,在0.6—0.0MaB.P.时段存在与偏心率呈线性响应的0.1Ma周期,在2.5—1.6MaB.P.时段存在与偏心率0.4Ma呈线性响应的周期。上述结果佐证了地球轨道变化对内陆古气候变化的线性驱动作用,但该理论不能解释在约0.9—0.6MaB.P.和1.6MaB.P.前后出现的二次较大的主导气候周期转型事件。     

高黎贡山羚牛生境适宜性评价及廊道建设

以高黎贡山羚牛为研究对象,选取了植被类型、植被覆盖度、海拔、坡度、水源、土地覆被、主要道路、居民点8个影响因子,基于GIS技术,构建阻力面,从而探测多因子影响作用下高黎贡山羚牛适宜生境。结果表明：区域内羚牛的适宜生境面积整体占比较少,适宜区域主要分布在研究区的中西部及西南地区,在北部区域也有零散分布。羚牛的迁徙受到人类活动的干扰及道路阻隔的影响,其生境遭到一定程度的破坏。结合现有羚牛栖息地分布及最小阻力模型,建立区域内羚牛的生态廊道,结果显示：廊道主要分布于高黎贡山保护区南段、马边瓦底中段、子巴、俄恰沙迪、马士打亚窟、其期北段、四克洛娃俎及木当一带。     

Distribution and controlling factors of phytoplankton assemblages in a semi-enclosed bay during spring and summer

The phytoplankton assemblages' patterns and their correlation to environmental factors were studied in Bohai Bay during spring and summer. Two zones, the northern (NWA) and southern (SWA) water area, were identified by cluster analysis based on their physical and chemical properties. Principal component analysis (PCA) showed that more phytoplankton species was found in the SWA with low nutrient concentration, while high phytoplankton abundance occurred in the NWA with high nutrient concentration. The seasonal variability in phytoplankton can be explained by water temperature, nutrient, and hydrodynamic conditions (includes mixing during spring and stratification during summer). Results of redundancy analysis (RDA) showed that silicate (SiO(4)) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) were the most important environmental factors influencing the phytoplankton distribution during spring and summer, respectively. Hydrodynamics condition plays a key role in controlling variation of the environmental factors, which determined phytoplankton distribution in Bohai Bay.     

一次华北暴雨过程中边界层东风活动及作用

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