几种降水集成预报方法的对比分析

采用多数表决集成法、评分权重集成法、多元回归集成法对承德市两来系统形成的降水进行晴雨和分级集成预报试验.结果表明:在每种单一的数值预报方法TS值均较高,总体预报质量相差不大的情况下,多数表决集中集成法可大幅度提高预报准确率;如果几种数值预报对于降水分级预报的预报准确率相差较大时,可采用评分权重集成法来提高总体预报质量;在样本足够的条件下,细化的预报结果多元回归集成法是晴雨预报和分级降水预报中比较可行的集成方法之一.     

揭阳市高温天气的气候背景特征及其成因

对1966～2006年揭阳市日极端最高气温大于等于35℃的高温天气进行统计分析,得出了高温灾害天气的气候特征,并概括出造成揭阳市高温灾害天气的成因以及环流形势.结果表明:揭阳市高温天气具有明显的时间变化,20世纪90年代以前是偏少期,1990～1997年为平均线附近平稳变化期,1998以来为明显偏多期,而且强度也是呈明显上升的趋势,这与全球气候变暖和城市热岛效应的大背景有密切的关系.同时也与区域大气环流异常有关,造成揭阳市高温天气的主要天气系统是西太平洋副热带高压和热带气旋西北气流的增温作用,前者容易造成持续性的高温天气,后者则容易造成极端最高气温.     

Zircon saturation model in silicate melts: a review and update

Zircon stability in silicate melts—which can be quantitatively constrained by laboratory measurements of zircon saturation—is important for understanding the evolution of magma. Although the original zircon saturation model proposed by Watson and Harrison (Earth Planet Sci Lett 64(2):295–304, 1983) is widely cited and has been updated recently, the three main models currently in use may generate large uncertainties due to extrapolation beyond their respective calibrated ranges. This paper reviews and updates zircon saturation models developed with temperature and compositional parameters. All available data on zircon saturation ranging in composition from mafic to silicic (and/or peralkaline to peraluminous) at temperatures from 750 to 1400 °C were collected to develop two refined models (1 and 2) that may be applied to the wider range of compositions. Model 1 is given by lnC_Zr(melt) = (14.297 ± 0.308) + (0.964 ± 0.066)·M − (11113 ± 374)/T, and model 2 given by lnC_Zr(melt) = (18.99 ± 0.423) − (1.069 ± 0.102)·lnG − (12288 ± 593)/T, where C_Zr(melt) is the Zr concentration of the melt in ppm and parameters M [= (Na + K + 2Ca)/(Al·Si)] (cation ratios) and G [= (3·Al₂O₃ + SiO₂)/(Na₂O + K₂O + CaO + MgO + FeO)] (molar proportions) represent the melt composition. The errors are at one sigma, and T is the temperature in Kelvin. Before applying these models to natural rocks, it is necessary to ensure that the zircon used to date is crystallized from the host magmatic rock. Assessment of the application of both new and old models to natural rocks suggests that model 1 may be the best for magmatic temperature estimates of metaluminous to peraluminous rocks and that model 2 may be the best for estimating magmatic temperatures of alkaline to peralkaline rocks.

     

Characteristics of Carbonate Reservoir and Its Forming Conditions in Continental Lake Basin of China

For decades of exploration, geologists have made great achievements in the exploration of lacustrine carbonate rocks. By dissecting four typical cases of lacustrine carbonate rocks, such as Lucaogou Formation of Permian in Junggar Basin, Da'anzhai Section of Jurassic in Sichuan Basin, Cretaceous in Yin'e Basin and Oligocene in Qaidam Basin, the reservoir characteristics, hydrocarbon generating capacity and reservoir forming model of source rocks were analyzed. The results show that: \mathrm{①} Lacustrine carbonate reservoirs are generally dense, with nano-micron reservoir space as the main reservoir space, including dolomite intergranular pore, organism cavity and accumulation pore, micro-fracture system and its corrosion expansion pore. Saline environment is beneficial to dolomitization and can improve the reservoir capacity of lacustrine carbonate rocks, but most of the permeability is less than 0.1 mD. \mathrm{②} Lacustrine carbonate rocks have not only reservoir capacity, but also can be used as source rocks. The abundance of organic matter is not high and the maturity is generally low. However, dispersed soluble organic matter in source rocks can generate and expel hydrocarbons in large quantities at low maturity stage, which has high liquid hydrocarbon yield. \mathrm{③} Oil and gas reservoirs are characterized by "high initial production, large reduction of production and long-term low and stable production", and are typical "fracture-pore" reservoirs. Fracture networks provide migration pathways in the process of primary migration and accumulation of oil and gas in geological history and oil and gas exploitation nowadays. \mathrm{④} Oil and gas reservoirs are "continuous" unconventional reservoirs, which often form regional oil and gas field groups together with conventional reservoirs in adjacent areas. The research results lay a theoretical foundation for re-evaluating the exploration potential of lacustrine carbonate rocks.     

淮南煤田刘庄煤矿深部煤层气地质特征

为了查明刘庄煤矿深部煤层气赋存及开发地质条件,在井田内实施了两口煤层气探井,并开展了系统的分析测试工作。结果表明:刘庄深部勘查区主要煤层孔隙度一般为4.14%~4.77%,比表面积集中在2.184~5.228m 2/g,13-1煤层、11-2煤层和8煤层试井渗透率分别为0.12mD、0.09mD和0.08mD,孔裂隙系统发育一般,属于渗透性差的储集层;储层压力梯度大于静水压力梯度,属高异常压力范畴;主要煤层兰氏压力平均为2.61MPa,兰氏体积平均为6.74m 3/t,吸附能力较低;LT-1井气测录井过程中共出现14层气测异常,异常层段全烃含量均较低,最大为3.701%(16-1煤);主要煤层的含气量分布在0.21~1.47m 3/t,平均0.65m 3/t,主要煤层含气饱和度均很低,最大值仅为18.0%。综合分析认为,刘庄煤矿深部主要煤层埋深大,孔裂隙系统发育差,渗透率低,而且具有低含气量和低饱和度的特征,煤层气勘探风险较高。     

Experimental study on the pile group-soil vibration induced by railway traffic under the inclined bedrock condition

Acta Geotechnica - The aim of this paper is to study the soil vibration response of a pile group induced by train traffic resting on the inclined bedrock condition. A series of model tests on the...     

SLDZ-1数字化地下流体多测项综合观测仪的研制及试验观测

介绍SLDZ-1数字化地下流体多测项综合观测仪的主要结构和工作原理,以及该仪器的技术指标和功能。根据水位、水温、H2、CO2和CH4的试验观测结果,发现各测项数据的连续性、准确性和稳定性均较强,说明该监测仪器适用于地震地下流体微观和宏观监测、调查与核实等领域。     

金伯利岩的卫星影像识别标志及应用实例

金刚石矿是我国的急缺矿种,具有很高的工业价值和经济价值。但是,过去的 50 年中国在寻找金刚石矿上始终没有取得突破。在科学理解金伯利岩火山地貌形态的基础上,利用卫星影像识别技术,建立一个地区金伯利岩的卫星影像识别标志,能够在金刚石矿靶区范围内有效地缩小目标。这些都是要建立在野外和室内的反复认证的基础之上。本文以世界著名的博兹瓦纳境内两个著名的金刚石矿,结合山东临沂和湖南常德地区的具体实例来推断金伯利岩的存在。在寻找金伯利岩时,理解金伯利质火山是玛珥-管道火山体是寻找金伯利质火山管道的基础,重视对低平圆形地质体成因的研究,建立一个地区的小型圆形地质体的卫星影像识别标准是一个野外和室内反复验证和积累经验的过程。     

三种大型钙化绿藻仙掌藻对海水变化的生理响应

The effects of seawater temperature on the physiological performance of three Halimeda species were studied for a period of 28 d. Five treatments were established for Halimeda cylindracea, Halimeda opuntia and Halimeda lacunalis, in triplicate aquaria representing a factorial temperature with 24°C, 28°C, 32°C, 34°C and 36°C,respectively. The average F_v/F_m of these species ranged from 0.732 to 0.756 between 24°C and 32°C but declined sharply between 34°C(0.457±0.035) and 36°C(0.122±0.014). Calcification was highest at 28°C, with net calcification rates(Gnet) of(20.082±2.482) mg/(g·d),(12.825±1.623) mg/(g·d) and(6.411±1.029) mg/(g·d) for H.cylindracea, H. opuntia and H. lacunalis, respectively. Between 24°C and 32°C, the specific growth rate(SGR) of H.lacunalis(0.079%–0.110% d~(–1)) was lower than that of H. cylindracea(0.652%–1.644% d~(–1)) and H. opuntia(0.360%–1.527% d~(–1)). Three Halimeda species gradually bleached at 36°C during the study period.Malondialdehyde(MDA) and proline levels in tissues of the three Halimeda were higher in 34–36°C than those in24–32°C. The results indicate that seawater temperature with range of 24–32°C could benefit the growth and calcification of these Halimeda species, however, extreme temperatures above 34°C have negative impacts. The measured physiological parameters also revealed that H. cylindracea and H. opuntia displayed broader temperature tolerance than H. lacunalis.     

缢基蜈蚣藻的早期发育、生活史和生态习性

蜈蚣藻属是海膜科中最大的属。在实验室培养条件下,我们详细观察了缢基蜈蚣藻（Grateloupia constricata）早期发育过程及生活史,研究了温度与光周期、温度与光照强度的交互作用对其盘状体发育及幼苗生长的影响。结果表明：缢基蜈蚣藻孢子发育类型为“间接盘状体”类型;缢基蜈蚣藻生活史由单倍体的雌、雄配子体,二倍体的果孢子体和四分孢子体组成,为典型的同型世代交替;温度、光周期和光照强度及其之间的相互作用对盘状体和幼苗的发育有显著影响,其中由温度与光周期、温度与光照强度交互实验得出：缢基蜈蚣藻早期发育的最适条件为温度20℃、光照强度80 μmol photons/(m²·s) 和光周期16L:8D。本研究为缢基蜈蚣藻的种质保存、大规模栽培和可持续开发利用提供了理论依据和技术支持。