近30年大气化学和大气环境研究回顾———纪念中国气象科学研究院成立50周年

概述了中国气象科学研究院 (简称气科院) 近30年来有关大气化学和大气环境研究成果。该院完成了国家自然科学基金重大项目和科技部973项目等一系列重要研究项目, 做出了许多具有重大创新性的成果:在青藏高原发现“臭氧低谷”, 这一重大发现列为当年中国10大科技成果之一; 首次把环境、生态、气候几个重要领域进行综合研究, 发现人类活动对环境造成的变化改变了生态环境状态, 最终对区域气候造成影响; 对北京市大气污染机理和调控原理进行了深入研究, 在三维立体观测基础上, 提出了点-面结合与统计-动力综合分析, 地面观测-卫星遥感分析方法及模式新技术等, 获取了解决大气环境领域关键技术难点的创新成果; 建立了全球第一个大陆大气本底基准观象台即瓦里关本底台, 开创了我国全球大气本底业务观测等。几十年来气科院大气化学研究工作几乎涵盖了当前大气化学所有重要领域及其前沿学科, 其中包括温室气体、臭氧和反应性气体、气溶胶、酸雨、模式的发展及应用、空气质量预报技术和环境评价等。气科院大气化学研究工作是和中国气象局大气成分监测站网建设密不可分的, 广大科研人员参加了诸如大气本底站网、酸雨站网、臭氧站网、沙尘暴站网等业务站网的建设, 与此同时也构建了大气化学科研平台。     

承德市地质灾害气象预报方法初探

分析承德市1954~2003年地质灾害资料及对应的降水资料,初步揭示了承德市地质灾害发生规律,找出了地质灾害发生与降水的关系。结果表明:局地强降水是诱发地质灾害的主要因素。由于不同地区具有不同的地质结构,根据地质灾害的区划、当日降水强度以及前期降水情况划分了承德市发生地质灾害的3种降水类型:前期饱和型、未来触发型和降水集中型,并确定了3种有利于地质灾害发生的大气环流形势及影响系统,为做好地质灾害气象等级预报预警打下了基础,据此建立的地质灾害气象等级预报预警系统于2005年投入业务使用,应用效果显著。     

OLR与长江中游夏季降水的关联

用SVD方法分析了1、4、7月全球OLR与夏季(6-8月)中国华中区域降水场的关系,结果表明:若1月南非东部沿岸至西印度洋、北美北部OLR(Outgoing Longwave Radiation)偏低(偏高),或北非、美国西南沿岸及近海OLR偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少).若4月澳大利亚至东印度洋、日界线以东热带太平洋OLR偏低(偏高),或西北太平洋偏高(偏低),则夏季长江中游降水将偏多(偏少).若7月东印度洋-澳大利亚大陆、东亚OLR偏低(偏高),则夏季华中区域长江及其以北降水将偏多(偏少),湖南和江西南部降水将偏少(偏多).夏季长江中游旱、涝年前期OLR明显的区别在于热带太平洋:涝年1月东、西太平洋为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧;旱年1月正好相反,东、西太平洋为微弱的正、负异常,4月转为东、西太平洋为微弱的负、正异常.太平洋暖池OLR低值区(强对流区)4、7月持续偏南,是夏季长江中游降水偏多的另一重要信号.冬、春季OLR与夏季长江中游降水大尺度关联的可能机制为:若1月热带东、西太平洋OLR为明显负、正异常,4月这种异常进一步加剧,也即冬、春季热带太平洋Walker环流持续减弱,从而使夏季暖池对流活动减弱,热带辐合带偏南,Hadley环流偏弱,使夏季西太平洋副热带高压主体位置偏南,导致中国夏季主雨带不能北推至黄河流域,而长期滞留长江中下游,最后造成长江中游降水异常.     

上海邻近海域风暴潮数据同化与特征分析

风暴潮是一种复杂的对众多因素敏感又备受关注的海洋现象。本文基于协方差局地化的集合卡尔曼滤波方法（EnKF）,选择201810号台风“安比”登陆上海的风暴潮过程,首次将海洋站和FVCOM数值模拟的不同来源、不同误差信息、不同时空分辨率的风暴潮进行数据同化融合,获得了逐72 h的上海海域风暴潮的最优解,进行了同化结果评估验证,并给出了集合样本数和Schur半径设置范围。结果表明,实测计算和数值模拟的风暴增减水之间均方根误差为0.20 m,实测和同化计算的风暴增减水之间均方根误差为0.07 m,准确度提高了65%;独立观测和同化计算的风暴增减水均方根误差为0.09 m,集合离散度与均方根误差比值为0.90,同化效果较好且可信;同化后的风暴增减水能够较好地刻画双峰增水、台风眼增水、增水锋面等特征,对于风暴潮研究、数值模拟结果订正、海洋防灾减灾等有重要意义。     

Outlining a stepwise,multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system: an example of application in Aizi Valley,China

In recent years, the increasing frequency of debris flow demands enhanced effectiveness and efficiency of warning systems. Effective warning systems are essential not only from an economic point of view but are also considered as a frontline approach to alleviate hazards. Currently, the key issues are the imbalance between the limited lifespan of equipment, the relatively long period between the recurrences of such hazards, and the wide range of critical rainfall that trigger these disasters. This paper attempts to provide a stepwise multi-parameter debris flow warning system after taking into account the shortcomings observed in other warning systems. The whole system is divided into five stages. Different warning levels can be issued based on the critical rainfall thresholds. Monitoring starts when early warning is issued and it continues with debris flow near warning, triggering warning, movement warning and hazard warning stages. For early warning, historical archives of earthquake and drought are used to choose a debris flow-susceptible site for further monitoring. Secondly, weather forecasts provide an alert of possible near warning. Hazardous precipitation, model calculation and debris flow initiation tests, pore pressure sensors and water content sensors are combined to check the critical rainfall and to publically announce a triggering warning. In the final two stages, equipment such as rainfall gauges, flow stage sensors, vibration sensors, low sound sensors and infrasound meters are used to assess movement processes and issue hazard warnings. In addition to these warnings, community-based knowledge and information is also obtained and discussed in detail. The proposed stepwise, multi-parameter debris flow monitoring and warning system has been applied in Aizi valley China which continuously monitors the debris flow activities.     

Catastrophic debris flows triggered by a 14 August 2010 rainfall at the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake

The Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 produced large amounts of loose material (landslide debris) that are still present on the steep slopes and in the gullies. This loose material creates an important hazard as strong rainfall can cause the development of devastating debris flows that will endanger the resettled population and destroy the result of reconstruction efforts. On 14 August 2010, a total of 21 debris flows were triggered by heavy rainfall around the town of Yingxue, located near the epicenter of the Wenchuan earthquake. One of these debris flows produced a debris dam, which then changed the course of the river and resulted in the flooding of the newly reconstructed Yinxue town. Prior to this catastrophic event, debris flow hazard had been recognized in the region, but its potential for such widespread and devastating impacts was not fully appreciated. Our primary objective for this study was to analyze the characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the sediment supply conditions leading to this event. Our field observations show that even small debris flow catchment areas have caused widespread sediment deposition on the existing fans. It is concluded that the whole of the area shaken by the Wenchuan earthquake is more susceptible to debris flows, initiated by localized heavy rainfall, than had been assumed earlier. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events in the earthquake-hit area. This is essential for the implementation of proper early warning, prevention, and mitigation measures as well as a better land use planning in this area.     

邢台地震窗对华北6级以上地震的预测

在分析1966年邢台7.2级地震的构造背景基础上划定邢台地震窗的范围并选取地震资料,分析和计算了地震窗地震活动高频次异常对华北地区6级以上地震的预测效能.结果表明邢台地震窗高频次异常具有较高预测信度.     

中国东部上地幔各向异性研究

地震各向异性研究是了解地壳和上地幔变形的有效方法之一.这一研究不仅能了解板块内部的形变特征,而且能提供与板块构造运动有关的下覆岩石圈的地幔形变状况.中国东部地处欧亚板块与太平洋板块的接触带附近,紧邻西太平洋俯冲带.中国大陆受印度板块与欧亚板块强烈碰撞的影响,大陆西部地壳增厚并隆起,同时造成物质东向挤出.太平洋板块和菲律宾海板块向欧亚板块下的俯冲作用,强烈地影响着板块边缘及内部的构造运动.     

X线CT机选型的依据

本文描述了X 线CT 机的几个主要技术特性,并根据这些特性,计论如何去选择一台价格低、图像质量高的CT 扫描机。     

Influences of the Wenchuan Earthquake on sediment supply of debris flows

The 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake and the subsequent rainstorms induced a large number of landslides, which later were transformed into debris flows. To evaluate the effect of the earthquake on the sediment supply of debris flows, eight debris flow basins near Beichuan City, Sichuan Province, China were chosen as the study area. The area variations of the debris flow source after the Wenchuan Earthquake and the subsequent rainstorm are analyzed and discussed in this paper. Interpretations of aerial photographs (after the 5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake) and SPOT5 images (after the rainstorm event of September 24, 2008) as well as field investigations were compared to identify the transformation of landslide surface in the study area, indicating that the landslide area in the eight debris flow basins significantly increased. The loose sediment area on the channel bed increased after the rainstorm event. In order to estimate the relationship of the landslide area with the rainfall intensity in different return periods, a model proposed by Uchihugi was adopted. Results show that new landslide area induced by heavy rainfall with 50-year and 100-year return period will be 0.87 km2 and 1.67 km2, respectively. The study results show the Wenchuan earthquake had particular influences on subsequent rainfall-induced debris flow occurrence.