An evaluation of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in their skill of simulating the spatial structure of SST variability

The natural sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the global oceans is evaluated in simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and CMIP5 models. In this evaluation, we examine how well the spatial structure of the SST variability matches between the observations and simulations on the basis of their leading empirical orthogonal functions-modes. Here we focus on the high-pass filter monthly mean time scales and the longer 5 years running mean time scales. We will compare the models and observations against simple null hypotheses, such as isotropic diffusion (red noise) or a slab ocean model, to illustrate the models skill in simulating realistic patterns of variability. Some models show good skill in simulating the observed spatial structure of the SST variability in the tropical domains and less so in the extra-tropical domains. However, most models show substantial deviations from the observations and from each other in most domains and particularly in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean on the longer (5 years running mean) time scale. In many cases the simple spatial red noise null hypothesis is closer to the observed structure than most models, despite the fact that the observed SST variability shows significant deviations from this simple spatial red noise null hypothesis. The CMIP models tend to largely overestimate the effective spatial number degrees of freedom and simulate too strongly localized patterns of SST variability at the wrong locations with structures that are different from the observed. However, the CMIP5 ensemble shows some improvement over the CMIP3 ensemble, mostly in the tropical domains. Further, the spatial structure of the SST modes of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 super ensemble is more realistic than any single model, if the relative explained variances of these modes are scaled by the observed eigenvalues.     

Analysis of the Slab Ocean El Nino atmospheric feedbacks in observed and simulated ENSO dynamics

In a recent study it was illustrated that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) mode can exist in the absence of any ocean dynamics. This oscillating mode exists just due to the interaction between atmospheric heat fluxes and ocean heat capacity. The primary purpose of this study is to further explore these atmospheric Slab Ocean ENSO dynamics and therefore the role of positive atmospheric feedbacks in model simulations and observations. The positive solar radiation feedback to sea surface temperature (SST), due to reduced cloud cover for anomalous warm SSTs, is the main positive feedback in the Slab Ocean El Nino dynamics. The strength of this positive cloud feedback is strongly related to the strength of the equatorial cold tongue. The combination of positive latent and sensible heat fluxes to the west and negative ones to the east of positive anomalies leads to the westward propagation of the SST anomalies, which allows for oscillating behavior with a preferred period of 6–7 years. Several indications are found that parts of these dynamics are indeed observed and simulated in other atmospheric or coupled general circulation models (AGCMs or CGCMs). The CMIP3 AGCM-slab ensemble of 13 different AGCM simulations shows unstable ocean–atmosphere interactions along the equatorial Pacific related to stronger cold tongues. In observations and in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 CGCM model ensemble the strength and sign of the cloud feedback is a function of the strength of the cold tongue. In summary, this indicates that the Slab Ocean El Nino dynamics are indeed a characteristic of the equatorial Pacific climate that is only dominant or significantly contributing to the ENSO dynamics if the SST cold tongue is sufficiently strong. In the observations this is only the case during strong La Nina conditions. The presence of the Slab Ocean ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in observations and CGCM model simulations implies that the family of physical ENSO modes does have another member, which is entirely driven by atmospheric processes and does not need to have the same spatial pattern nor the same time scales as the main ENSO dynamics.     

Decoding earth's plate tectonic history using sparse geochemical data

Accurately mapping plate boundary types and locations through time is essential for understanding the evolution of the plate-mantle system and the exchange of material between the solid Earth and surface environments.However,the complexity of the Earth system and the cryptic nature of the geological record make it difficult to discriminate tectonic environments through deep time.Here we present a new method for identifying tectonic paleo-environments on Earth through a data mining approach using global geochemical data.We first fingerprint a variety of present-day tectonic environments utilising up to 136 geochemical data attributes in any available combination.A total of 38301 geochemical analyses from basalts aged from 5-0 Ma together with a well-established plate reconstruction model are used to construct a suite of discriminatory models for the first order tectonic environments of subduction and mid-ocean ridge as distinct from intraplate hotspot oceanic environments,identifying 41,35,and 39 key discriminatory geochemical attributes,respectively.After training and validation,our model is applied to a global geochemical database of 1547 basalt samples of unknown tectonic origin aged between 1000-410 Ma,a relatively ill-constrained period of Earth’s evolution following the breakup of the Rodinia supercontinent,producing 56 unique global tectonic environment predictions throughout the Neoproterozoic and Early Paleozoic.Predictions are used to discriminate between three alternative published Rodinia configuration models,identifying the model demonstrating the closest spatio-temporal consistency with the basalt record,and emphasizing the importance of integrating geochemical data into plate reconstructions.Our approach offers an extensible framework for constructing full-plate,deeptime reconstructions capable of assimilating a broad range of geochemical and geological observations,enabling next generation Earth system models.     

Mapping Seabed Geology by Ground-Truthed Textural Image/Neural Network Classification of Acoustic Backscatter Mosaics

We present a novel, automated method for seabed classification based on shallow water backscatter mosaics from Sydney Harbour. Our approach compares the results between two different methods of image feature extraction when combined with artificial neural networks. The association of image textures with seabed geology is used to train the artificial neural networks to recognise the variability of textural attributes for three seabed classes comprising mud, sand and gravel. After network training, we classify unknown portions of the backscatter mosaic with a success rate ranging from 77% to 92%. Our results suggest that the computationally fast grey-level co-occurrence iteration algorithm holds promise for benthic habitat mapping in space and time, leading to real-time data analysis at sea.     

Oxygen isotope systematics of gem corundum deposits in Madagascar: relevance for their geological origin

The oxygen isotopic composition of gem corundum was measured from 22 deposits and occurrences in Madagascar to provide a gemstone geological identification and characterization. Primary corundum deposits in Madagascar are hosted in magmatic (syenite and alkali basalt) and metamorphic rocks (gneiss, cordieritite, mafic and ultramafic rocks, marble, and calc-silicate rocks). In both domains the circulation of fluids, especially along shear zones for metamorphic deposits, provoked in situ transformation of the corundum host rocks with the formation of metasomatites such as phlogopite, sakenite, and corundumite. Secondary deposits (placers) are the most important economically and are contained in detrital basins and karsts. The oxygen isotopic ratios (¹⁸O/¹⁶O) of ruby and sapphire from primary deposits are a good indicator of their geological origin and reveal a wide range of δ¹⁸O (Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water) between 1.3 and 15.6‰. Metamorphic rubies are defined by two groups of δ¹⁸O values in the range of 1.7 to 2.9‰ (cordieritite) and 3.8 to 6.1‰ (amphibolite). “Magmatic” rubies from pyroxenitic xenoliths contained in the alkali basalt of Soamiakatra have δ¹⁸O values ranging between 1.3 and 4.7‰. Sapphires are classified into two main groups with δ¹⁸O in the range of 4.7 to 9.0‰ (pyroxenite and feldspathic gneiss) and 10.7 to 15.6‰ (skarn in marble from Andranondambo). The δ¹⁸O values for gem corundum from secondary deposits have a wide spread between −0.3 and 16.5‰. The ruby and sapphire found in placers linked to alkali basalt environments in the northern and central regions of Madagascar have consistent δ¹⁸O values between 3.5 and 6.9‰. Ruby from the placers of Vatomandry and Andilamena has δ¹⁸O values of 5.9‰, and between 0.5 and 4.0‰, respectively. The placers of the Ilakaka area are characterized by a huge variety of colored sapphires and rubies, with δ¹⁸O values between −0.3 and 16.5‰, and their origin is debated. A comparison with oxygen isotope data obtained on gem corundum from Eastern Africa, India, and Sri Lanka is presented. Giant placer deposits from Sri Lanka, Madagascar, and Tanzania have a large variety of colored sapphires and rubies with a large variation in δ¹⁸O due to mingling of corundum of different origin: mafic and ultramafic rocks for ruby, desilicated pegmatites for blue sapphire, syenite for yellow, green, and blue sapphire, and skarn in marbles for blue sapphire.     

Influence of low ozone episodes on erythemal UV-B radiation in Austria

This study investigates the influence of low ozone episodes on UV-B radiation in Austria during the period 1999 to 2015. To this aim observations of total column ozone (TCO) in the Greater Alpine Region (Arosa, Switzerland; Hohenpeissenberg, Germany; Hradec Kralove, Czech Republic; Sonnblick, Austria), and erythemal UV-B radiation, available from 12 sites of the Austrian UV-B monitoring network, are analyzed. As previous definitions for low ozone episodes are not particularly suited to investigate effects on UV radiation, a novel threshold approach—considering anomalies—is developed to provide a joint framework for the analysis of extremes. TCO and UV extremes are negatively correlated, although modulating effects of sunshine duration impact the robustness of the statistical relationship. Therefore, information on relative sunshine duration (SD_rel), available at (or nearby) UV-B monitoring sites, is included as explanatory variable in the analysis. The joint analysis of anomalies of both UV index (UVI) and total ozone (∆UVI, ∆TCO) and SD_rel across sites shows that more than 65% of observations with strongly negative ozone anomalies (∆TCO < −1) led to positive UVI anomalies. Considering only days with strongly positive UVI anomaly (∆UVI > 1), we find (across all sites) that about 90% correspond to negative ∆TCO. The remaining 10% of days occurred during fair weather conditions (SD_rel ≥ 80%) explaining the appearance of ∆UVI > 1 despite positive TCO anomalies. Further, we introduce an anomaly amplification factor (AAF), which quantifies the expected change of the ∆UVI for a given change in ∆TCO.

     

The Erbisberg drilling 2011: Implications for the structure and postimpact evolution of the inner ring of the Ries impact crater

The 26 km diameter Nördlinger Ries is a complex impact structure with a ring structure that resembles a peak ring. A first research drilling through this “inner crystalline ring” of the Ries was performed at the Erbisberg hill (SW Ries) to better understand the internal structure and lithology of this feature, and possibly reveal impact‐induced hydrothermal alteration. The drill core intersected the slope of a 22 m thick postimpact travertine mound, before entering 42 m of blocks and breccias of crystalline rocks excavated from the Variscan basement at >500 m depth. Weakly shocked gneiss blocks that show that shock pressure did not exceed 5 GPa occur above polymict lithic breccias of shock stage Ia (10–20 GPa), with planar fractures and planar deformation features (PDFs) in quartz. Only a narrow zone at 49.20–50.00 m core depth exhibits strong mosaicism in feldspar and {102} PDFs in quartz, which are indicative of shock stage Ib (20–35 GPa). Finally, 2 m of brecciated Keuper sediments at the base of the section point to an inverse layering of strata. While reverse grading of clast sizes in lithic breccias and gneiss blocks is consistent with lateral transport, the absence of diaplectic glass and melt products argues against dynamic overthrusting of material from a collapsing central peak, as seen in the much larger Chicxulub structure. Indeed, weakly shocked gneiss blocks are rather of local provenance (i.e., the transient crater wall), whereas moderately shocked polymict lithic breccias with geochemical composition and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr signature similar to Ries suevite were derived from a position closer to the impact center. Thus, the inner ring of the Ries is formed by moderately shocked polymict lithic breccias likely injected into the transient crater wall during the excavation stage and weakly shocked gneiss blocks of the collapsing transient crater wall that were emplaced during the modification stage. While the presence of an overturned flap is not evident from the Erbisberg drilling, a survey of all drillings at or near the inner ring point to inverted strata throughout its outer limb. Whether the central ring of the Ries represents remains of a collapsed central peak remains to be shown. Postimpact hydrothermal alteration along the Erbisberg section comprises chloritization, sulfide veinlets, and strong carbonatization. In addition, a narrow zone in the lower parts of the polymict lithic breccia sequence shows a positive Eu anomaly in its carbonate phase. The surface expression of this hydrothermal activity, i.e., the travertine mound, comprises subaerial as well as subaquatic growth phases. Intercalated lake sediments equivalent to the early parts of the evolution of the central crater basin succession confirm a persistent impact‐generated hydrothermal activity, although for less time than previously suggested.     

Seismic stratigraphy of the Adare Trough area, Antarctica

The Adare Trough, located 100 km NE of Cape Adare, Antarctica, is the extinct third arm of a Tertiary spreading ridge that separated East from West Antarctica. We use seismic reflection data, tied to DSDP Site 274, to link our seismic stratigraphic interpretation to changes in ocean-bottom currents, Ross Sea ice cover, and regional tectonics through time. Two extended unconformities are observed in the seismic profiles. We suggest that the earliest hiatus (early Oligocene to Mid-Miocene) is related to low sediment supply from the adjacent Ross Shelf, comprised of small, isolated basins. The later hiatus (mid-Miocene to late Miocene) is likely caused by strong bottom currents sourced from the open-marine Ross Sea due to increased Antarctic glaciation induced by mid-Miocene cooling (from Mi-3). Further global cooling during the Pliocene, causing changes in global ocean circulation patterns, correlates with Adare Basin sediments and indicate the continuing but weakened influence of bottom currents. The contourite/turbidite pattern present in the Adare Trough seismic data is consistent with the 3-phase contourite growth system proposed for the Weddell Sea and Antarctic Peninsula. Multibeam bathymetry and seismic reflection profiles show ubiquitous volcanic cones and intrusions throughout the Adare Basin that we interpret to have formed from the Oligocene to the present. Seismic reflection profiles reveal trans-tensional/strike-slip faults that indicate oblique extension dominated Adare Trough tectonics at 32–15 Ma. Observed volcanism patterns and anomalously shallow basement depth in the Adare Trough area are most likely caused by mantle upwelling, an explanation supported by mantle density reconstructions, which show anomalously hot mantle beneath the Adare Trough area forming in the Late Tertiary.     

Willingness to pay among households to prevent coastal resources from polluting by oil spills: A pilot survey

In many coastal regions oil spills can be considered to be one of the most important risks for the coastal environment. Efficient contingency management in responding to oil spills is critically important. Strategic priorities in contingency management highly depend upon the importance attributed to different economic and ecological resources such as beaches or birds. Due to the lack of a market for natural resources in the real world, these resources cannot be directly measured in monetary terms. This increases the risk that natural resources and their services are neglected in contingency decision making. This paper evaluates these natural resources in a hypothetical market by using the methodology of stated choice experiments. Results from a pilot survey show that according to the perspective of individuals, an oil spill combat process should focus on the protection of coastal waters, beaches and eider ducks.