Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part II: Unsaturated soil modeling

The aim of this paper is to extend the generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model presented in part 1 to reproduce the hydro‐mechanical behavior of unsaturated soils. The proposed model is based on two pairs of stress–strain variables and a suitable hardening law taking into account the bonding—debonding effect of suction and degree of saturation. A generalized state parameter for unsaturated state is proposed to reproduce soil behavior using a single set of material parameters. Generalized plasticity gives a suitable framework to reproduce not only monotonic stress path but also cyclic behavior. The hydraulic hysteresis during a drying—wetting cycle and the void ratio effect on the hydraulic behavior is introduced. Comparison between model simulations and a series of experimental data available, both cohesive and granular, are given to illustrate the accuracy of the enhanced generalized plasticity equation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Were merely storm-landslides driven by the 2015-2016 Niño in the Mendoza River valley?

Since Holocene time, above-mean precipitations recorded during the El Niño warm ENSO phase have been linked to the occurrence of severe debris flows in the arid Central Andes. The 2015–2016 El Niño, for its unusual strength, began driving huge and dangerous landslides in the Central Andes (32°) in the recent South Hemisphere summer. The resulting damages negatively impacted the regional economy. Despite this, causes of these dangerous events were ambiguously reported. For this reason, a multidisciplinary study was carried out in the Mendoza River valley. Firstly, a geomorphological analysis of affected basins was conducted, estimating morphometric parameters of recorded events such as velocity, stream flow, and volume. Atmospheric conditions during such events were analyzed, considering precipitations, snow cover, temperature range, and the elevation of the zero isotherm. Based on our findings, the role of El Niño on the slope instability in the Central Andes is more complex in the climate change scenario. Even though some events were effectively triggered by intense summer rainstorm following expectations, the most dangerous events were caused by the progressive uplifting of the zero isotherm in smaller basins where headwaters are occupied by debris rock glaciers. Our research findings give light to the dynamic coupled system ENSO–climate change–landslides (ECCL) at least in this particular case study of the Mendoza River valley. Landslide activity in this Andean region is driven by wetter conditions linked to the ENSO warm phase, but also to progressive warming since the twentieth century in the region. This fact emphasizes the future impact of the natural hazards on Andean mountain communities.     

Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

Middle Pleistocene large‐mammal faunas from North Iberia: palaeobiogeographical and palaeoecological implications

The rich Quaternary fossil record from the Cantabrian region (NW Iberia) is virtually restricted to the Late Pleistocene, with Middle Pleistocene findings very rare. This work presents the study of two Middle Pleistocene palaeontological sites in the Cantabrian region: Llantrales quarry and Mestas de Con mine, both discovered and first described in the 1950s but never studied in detail thereafter. The material was here re‐analysed and re‐evaluated. Taxonomic attributions have been changed in most cases and, consequently, chronological assignments of the fossils have also been changed. This first detailed study of the assemblage from Llantrales quarry revealed the occurrence of the large‐sized deer Praemegaceros solilhacus, which has never been reported previously in North Iberia. Cervus cf. elaphus and Stephanorhinus cf. hundsheimensis were also identified. The age of these fossils was originally regarded as Pontian (late Miocene), but new palaeontological results indicate a much younger age, most likely from around 0.8 to 0.5 Ma. A taxonomic re‐evaluation of the fossils from Mestas de Con provided different results with respect to the 1950s works. The faunal association is composed of a large‐sized deer (probably corresponding to Praemegaceros), Cervus elaphus, Capreolus cf. capreolus, Bison sp. (small sized), Equus sp. (large sized), Stephanorhinus hemitoechus, Ursus sp. and Homotherim latidens. This faunal association was evaluated within a western European context and proves to be highly analogous to other contemporary assemblages there. The chronology was initially regarded as late Villafranchian (in a broader sense). New results, documenting the co‐occurrence of Stephanorhinus hemitoechus and Homotherium latidens, indicate a more precise and younger age, most likely between 0.6 and 0.4 Ma. These two fossil assemblages provide new and relevant information on the Middle Pleistocene faunas from a geographical region where this information, compared with other western European areas, is rare and poorly known.     

Analyzing ice dynamics using Sentinel-1 data at the Solheimajoküll Glacier,Iceland

ABSTRACT

The climate in southern Iceland has warmed over the last 70 years, resulting in accelerated glacier dynamics at the Solheimajoküll glacier. In this study, we compare glacier terminus locations from 1973 to 2018, to changes in climate across the study area, and we derive ice-surface velocities (2015–2018) from satellite remote-sensing imagery (Sentinel-1) using the offset-tracking method. There have been two regional temperature trends in the study period: cooling (1973–1979) and warming (1980–2018). Our results indicate a time lag of about 20 years between the onset of glacier retreat (?53 m/year since 2000) and the inception of the warming period. Seasonally, the velocity time series suggest acceleration during the summer melt season since 2016, whereas glacier velocities during accumulation months were constant. The highest velocities were observed at high elevations where the ice-surface slope is the steepest. We tested several scenarios to assess the hydrological time response to glacier accelerations, with the highest correlations being found between one and 30 days after the velocity estimates. Monthly correlation analyses indicated inter-annual and intra-annual variability in the glacier dynamics. Additionally, we investigate the linkage between glacier velocities and meltwater outflow parameters as they provide useful information about internal processes in the glacier. Velocity estimates positively correlate with water level and negatively correlate with water conductivity between April and August. There is also a disruption in the correlation trend between water conductivity and ice velocity in June, potentially due to a seasonal release of geothermal water.     

Consequences of a freshwater canal discharge on the benthic community and its habitat on an exposed sandy beach

This paper analyses the spatial and temporal effects of a freshwater discharge (Canal Andreoni) on the macroinfauna community and its habitat in a sandy beach of Uruguay. Bimonthly, we examined 17 environmental variables plus macroinfauna abundance, biomass, richness, evenness and diversity of three sites: Andreoni, at the canal mouth, Coronilla, at 1 km, and Barra, at 13 km from the mouth. Both univariate and multivariate techniques showed an increasing degree of perturbation towards the canal. This was reflected by abiotic and biotic differences between sites and by a consistent two-dimensional ordination of the samples. A clear seasonal pattern was found, specially accentuated at Coronilla, where the effects of the canal were stronger in winter and weaker in summer. Multivariate linking between macroinfauna and its habitat highlighted the role of salinity as explanatory variable of the observed trends.     

Sumatra tsunami: lessons from modeling

The need for the combination of seismic data with real-time wave height information for an effective prediction of tsunami impact is emphasized in the paper. A preliminary, but comprehensive study of arrival times, wave heights and run-up values at a number of locations and tide gage stations throughout the Indian Ocean seaboard is presented. Open ocean wave height data from satellite observations are analyzed and used in the reconstruction of a tsunami source mechanism for the December 26, 2004 event. The reconstructed source is then used to numerically estimate tsunami impact along the Indian Ocean seaboard, including wave height, and arrival times at 12 tide gage stations, and inundation at 3 locations on the coast of India. The December 2004, as well as the March 28, 2005 tsunamis are investigated and their differences in terms of tsunami generation are analyzed and presented as a clear example of the need for both, seismic and real-time tsunami data for a reliable tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean.     

Discussion of: Ortega-Flores et al. (2018) Provenance analysis of Oligocene sandstone from the Cerro Pelón area,southern Gulf of Mexico.https://doi.org/10.1080/00206814.2018.1476922

ABSTRACT

We discuss the 2018 publication that reports petrographic, heavy mineral data, mineral chemistry, and zircon geochronology for Oligocene sandstones in the Cerro Pelón area in southern Mexico Sureste basin. As the title of their paper says, the goal of their study is to establish the source (s) of the voluminous Cenozoic section in this region, reaching several kilometres in thickness and important as a petroleum system. These authors conclude that Oligocene sandstones of La Laja Formation were mostly sourced from eclogite- to greenschist-facies metasedimentary, metaigneous, and ultramafic rocks of the Guatemala suture complex. Minor contributions from the Chiapas Massif Complex, exposed directly to the south ~60 km of the Cerro Pelón area, were also suggested by the authors. They thus conclude that the Palaeogene stratigraphic record in southeastern Mexico was mostly controlled by the development of the Caribbean–North America plate boundary rather than by orogenic processes at the Pacific margin of North America. Presently, we do not agree with the conclusions of Ortega Flores and colleagues who studied the Cerro Pelón section, thus some discussion is required. Serpentinite bearing Nanchital Conglomerate is well exposed in the Cerro Pelón area, and high- to low-grade metamorphic rocks experienced an uplift in the vicinity of the Cerro Pelón area at the time of deposition of the La Laja Formation. We believe the data are better explained by multiple local sources in southern and eastern Oaxaca as well as sources to the south and southwest, which include the Cenozoic coastal batholith, the Grenvillean/Guichicovi basement complexes, the Chiapas Massif, the Mazatlán schist and other units in the Cuicateco Belt, as well as the Mesozoic cover of these areas (Todos Santos Formation, Cretaceous carbonate rocks, and Paleogene strata such as the Soyaló and Bosque Formations).