Palaeoclimatic record from a loess–soil profile in northeastern Bulgaria—II. Correlation with global climatic events during the Pleistocene

Magnetic susceptibility ( χ ) variations and the behaviour of the ratio of susceptibility to saturation magnetization ( χ/J _s ) along the loess/palaeosol section at Koriten (NE Bulgaria) are used to deduce climatic changes during the Pleistocene in southeastern Europe. A good correlation of susceptibility variations with the astronomically tuned oxygen isotope record from ODP site 677 enables us to propose a more precise dating of the upper part of the Bulgarian loess complex. Close correspondence between susceptibility and δ ^{1 8} O records demonstrates the global significance of the palaeoclimatic signal recorded, although differences in relative amplitudes of χ and χ/J _s and δ ^{1 8} O create difficulties in making quantitative estimates of the climatic humidity in the past. The role of local factors affecting the palaeoclimatic mineral magnetic record deduced from the profile studied in Bulgaria is discussed.     

Parametric model identification of high-speed craft dynamics

Parametric models of heave, pitch and roll dynamics of a high-speed craft have been estimated for different wave incidence angles in the frequency domain. Several issues that make the identification problem interesting are the following: type of parameterization, starting values, non-quadratic functions, excitation signals and short data record. The method employed guarantees a fine linear approximation of the nonlinear dynamics of a fast ship for the ultimate goal of stabilization control to reduce motion sickness associated with heave, pitch and roll accelerations. In addition, the approach achieves high-quality starting values and avoids non-quadratic terms in the cost function, which results in less computational load and significantly more accurate models when compared with a previous method employed for the same problem.     

Concentration–discharge relationships describe solute and sediment mobilization,reaction, and transport at event and longer timescales

Concentration–discharge (C‐Q) relationships reflect material sources, storage, reaction, proximity, and transport in catchments. Differences in hydrologic pathways and connectivity influence observed C‐Q patterns at the catchment outlet. We examined solute and sediment C‐Q relationships at event and interannual timescales in a small mid‐Atlantic (USA) catchment. We found systematic differences in the C‐Q behaviour of geogenic/exogenous solutes (e.g., calcium and nitrate), biologically associated solutes (e.g., dissolved organic carbon), and particulate materials (e.g., total suspended solids). Negative log(C)–log(Q) regression slopes, indicating dilution, were common for geogenic solutes whereas positive slopes, indicating concentration increase, were common for biologically associated solutes. Biologically associated solutes often exhibited counterclockwise hysteresis during events whereas geogenic solutes exhibited clockwise hysteresis. Across event and interannual timescales, solute C‐Q patterns are linked to the spatial distribution of hydrologic sources and the timing and sequence of hydro‐biogeochemical source contributions to the stream. Groundwater is the primary source of stormflow during the earliest and latest stages of events, whereas precipitation and soil water become increasingly connected to the stream near peakflow. This sequence and timing of flowpath connectivity results in dilution and clockwise hysteresis for geogenic/exogenous solutes and concentration increase and counterclockwise hysteresis for biologically associated solutes. Particulate materials demonstrated positive C‐Q slopes over the long‐term and clockwise hysteresis during individual events. Drivers of particulate and solute C‐Q relationships differ, based on longitudinal and lateral expansion of active channels and changing shear stresses with increasing flows. Although important distinctions exist between the drivers of solute and sediment C‐Q relationships, overall solute and sediment C‐Q patterns at event and interannual timescales reflect consistent catchment hydro‐biogeochemical processes.     

Comparing approaches for modeling spatially distributed direct recharge in a semi-arid region (Okanagan Basin, Canada)

Spatially distributed recharge is compared at two different scales using three different modeling approaches within the semi-arid Okanagan Basin, British Columbia, Canada. Regional recharge was modeled by mapping results for one-dimensional soil columns from the water-balance code HELP (Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance, V3.80D). The regional model was then compared to two, independently derived, local-scale models to ensure local trends were captured in the regional model, and to compare modeling methods. Average annual recharge, predicted by the regional model, varied from no recharge to 186 mm/yr. For the north Okanagan (Vernon area), regional estimates were compared to Richards’ equation-based MIKE-SHE (V2007) estimates, which showed a significant difference in average annual recharge: 7 mm/yr (MIKE-SHE) and 109 mm/yr (HELP). In the south Okanagan (Oliver area), regional estimates were compared to high-resolution, local HELP estimates. Similar values of average annual recharge were obtained: 34 mm/yr (local) and 42 mm/yr (regional). A comparison with measured actual evapotranspiration data in the north Okanagan, showed HELP over-predicted recharge compared to MIKE-SHE by under-predicting evapotranspiration during summer months. Thus, the use of HELP in semi-arid areas may be limited if accurate estimates of recharge are needed. However, results may give satisfactory groundwater model calibrations results because of high uncertainty in hydraulic properties.     

Coastal Phytoplankton Do Not Rest in Winter

The climatology and interannual variability of winter phytoplankton was analyzed at the Long Term Ecological Research Station MareChiara (LTER-MC, Gulf of Naples, Mediterranean Sea) using data collected from 1985 to 2006. Background winter chlorophyll values (0.2–0.5 μg chl a dm⁻³) were associated with the dominance of flagellates, dinoflagellates, and coccolithophores. Winter biomass increases (<5.47 μg chl a dm⁻³) were often recorded until 2000, generally in association with low-salinity surface waters (37.3–37.9). These blooms were most often caused by colonial diatoms such as Chaetoceros spp., Thalassiosira spp., and Leptocylindrus danicus. In recent years, we observed more modest and sporadic winter biomass increases, mainly caused by small flagellates and small non-colonial diatoms. The resulting negative chl a trend over the time series was associated with positive surface salinity and negative nutrient trends. Physical and meteorological conditions apparently exert a strict control on winter blooms, hence significant changes in winter productivity can be foreseen under different climatic scenarios.     

A hypoplastic macroelement model for shallow foundations under monotonic and cyclic loads

In this work, a macroelement for shallow foundations on sands has been developed based on the theory of hypoplasticity. The incrementally nonlinear constitutive equations of the macromodel are defined in terms of generalized forces and displacements and are constructed based on the general approach proposed by Niemunis (Extended Hypoplastic Models for Soils. Habilitation Thesis, Bochum University, 2002). A suitable vectorial internal variable—mimicking the concept of intergranular strain introduced by Niemunis and Herle (Mech Cohes Frict Mater 2:279–299, 1997) for continuum hypoplasticity—is employed to provide the model sufficient memory of past displacement history to be able to reproduce the observed behavior under cyclic loading paths. As compared to similar macroelements formulated within the framework of the theory of elastoplasticity, the proposed approach has the advantage of a much simpler mathematical structure, which allows a straightforward implementation in existing structural analysis FE codes. The model performance has then been evaluated by comparing the model predictions with available experimental results from a series of small-scale model tests reported by Nova and Montrasio (Géotechnique 41:243–256, 1991). Overall, the model captures reasonably well the observed response under nonproportional, complex loading paths. A series of simulations reproducing the tests performed by di Prisco et al. (Shallow footing under cyclic loading: experimental behaviour and constitutive modelling. Patron, Bologna, 2003) has also demonstrated the potential of the proposed model to simulate the observed behavior of footings under cyclic loading paths, at least from a qualitative point of view.     

Modeling regional coral reef responses to global warming and changes in ocean chemistry: Caribbean case study

Climatic change threatens the future of coral reefs in the Caribbean and the important ecosystem services they provide. We used a simulation model [Combo (??COral Mortality and Bleaching Output??)] to estimate future coral cover in the part of the eastern Caribbean impacted by a massive coral bleaching event in 2005. Combo calculates impacts of future climate change on coral reefs by combining impacts from long-term changes in average sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean acidification with impacts from episodic high temperature mortality (bleaching) events. We used mortality and heat dose data from the 2005 bleaching event to select historic temperature datasets, to use as a baseline for running Combo under different future climate scenarios and sets of assumptions. Results suggest a bleak future for coral reefs in the eastern Caribbean. For three different emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; B1, A1B, and A1FI), coral cover on most Caribbean reefs is projected to drop below 5% by the year 2035, if future mortality rates are equivalent to some of those observed in the 2005 event (50%). For a scenario where corals gain an additional 1?C1.5°C of heat tolerance through a shift in the algae that live in the coral tissue, coral cover above 5% is prolonged until 2065. Additional impacts such as storms or anthropogenic damage could result in declines in coral cover even faster than those projected here. These results suggest the need to identify and preserve the locations that are likely to have a higher resiliency to bleaching to save as many remnant populations of corals as possible in the face of projected wide-spread coral loss.     

Failed magmatic eruptions: late-stage cessation of magma ascent

When a volcano becomes restless, a primary question is whether the unrest will lead to an eruption. Here we recognize four possible outcomes of a magmatic intrusion: “deep intrusion”, “shallow intrusion”, “sluggish/viscous magmatic eruption”, and “rapid, often explosive magmatic eruption”. We define “failed eruptions” as instances in which magma reaches but does not pass the “shallow intrusion” stage, i.e., when magma gets close to, but does not reach, the surface. Competing factors act to promote or hinder the eventual eruption of a magma intrusion. Fresh intrusion from depth, high magma gas content, rapid ascent rates that leave little time for enroute degassing, opening of pathways, and sudden decompression near the surface all act to promote eruption, whereas decreased magma supply from depth, slow ascent, significant enroute degassing and associated increases in viscosity, and impingement on structural barriers all act to hinder eruption. All of these factors interact in complex ways with variable results, but often cause magma to stall at some depth before reaching the surface. Although certain precursory phenomena, such as rapidly escalating seismic swarms or rates of degassing or deformation, are good indicators that an eruption is likely, such phenomena have also been observed in association with intrusions that have ultimately failed to erupt. A perpetual difficulty with quantifying the probability of eruption is a lack of data, particularly on instances of failed eruptions. This difficulty is being addressed in part through the WOVOdat database. Papers in this volume will be an additional resource for scientists grappling with the issue of whether or not an episode of unrest will lead to a magmatic eruption.     

Natural and anthropogenic heavy metals in estuarine cohesive sediments: geochemistry and bioavailability

The geochemistry, mineralogy, and grain size distribution of several estuarine cohesive sediment samples from potentially human-influenced areas without such an influence were analyzed to determine the natural heavy metal content and evaluate its impact on the Bahía Blanca estuarine environment. The data were compared with different ranges of concentrations for heavy metals in marine sediments established by the NOAA Screening Quick Reference Tables in which values range from background levels to those considered toxic to the marine environment. Our total heavy metal contents were below the established hazardous levels in all the analyzed samples, even though the potentially human-influenced areas (harbors, industry, urban spread) showed the highest total concentration values as well as greater percentages of bioavailable compounds. This would imply a low and not extensive anthropogenic input into the environment. The relatively high proportions in which Cd, Pb, and Cr appear as bioavailable compounds at some sites not influenced by human activity suggest the presence of a natural source for these elements. This could be attributed to the weathering of naturally occurring volcanic minerals, indicating that special care must be taken when monitoring of sediment for anthropogenic activity is carried out within this environment. According to the results obtained, and in order to minimize the environmental impact caused by periodic water injection dredging, relocation of sewage outfalls from vessel mooring areas into open waters is strongly recommended.     

Evaluating the sensitivity of DRASTIC using different data sources,interpretations and mapping approaches

When used in a comprehensive risk assessment framework, aquifer vulnerability maps are a tool to identify the relative susceptibility of the groundwater from sources of contamination at the land surface. The DRASTIC method was designed for use over large areas with a wide variety of geological and hydrogeologic settings as a screening tool in groundwater protection and management. In this study, a series of vulnerability maps were made for the Greater Oliver area, in south central Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to test the sensitivity of the methodology to changes in input data type, interpretation, and mapping approaches. The study also illustrates how DRASTIC can be modified for use in areas of limited geological variability, where it may be important for smaller-scale changes in vulnerability to be recognized. Maps were produced using the original DRASTIC rating tables, a set of expanded tables using the original properties but modified ranges to accommodate the variability of data in the valley bottom region, and alternate tables, with modified properties and ranges. Differences in vulnerability rating for the maps using selected combinations and data interpretations are compared to the map using original DRASTIC rating tables using visual and statistical methods. One map was generated using expert hydrological knowledge. The modified tables allowed a greater amount of variability to be expressed in the valley bottom area compared to using the original tables and methods, and could provide a reasonable approach for assessing local scale variability for source water protection planning.