Seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton and nutrient dynamics along Line P in the NE subarctic Pacific

We analysed mixed-layer seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton biomass and macronutrient (NO₃ and Si(OH)₄) concentrations from three decades of observations, and nitrogen uptake rates from the 1990s along Line P in the NE subarctic Pacific. Chlorophyll a concentrations near 0.35 mg m⁻³ were observed year-round along Line P except at the nearshore station (P4) where chlorophyll a concentrations in spring were on average 2.4 times the winter values. In contrast, the temporal variability in carbon-to-chlorophyll ratios at the two main end members of Line P (P4 and OSP) was high. Large seasonal and interannual variability in NO₃ and Si(OH)₄ concentration were observed along Line P. Highest upper mixed-layer (top 15 m) nutrient concentrations occurred on the continental shelf in late summer and early fall due to seasonal coastal upwelling. Beyond the shelf, maximum nutrient concentrations increased gradually offshore, and were highest in late winter and early spring due to mixing by winter storms. Interannual variations in upper mixed-layer nutrient concentrations beyond the shelf (>128°W) were correlated with E-W winds and the PDO since 1988 but were not correlated with either climate index between 1973 and 1981. Despite differences in nutrient concentration, nutrient utilization (ΔNO₃ and ΔSi(OH)₄) during the growing season were about 7.5 μM at all offshore stations. Variations in ΔNO₃ were correlated with those of ΔSi(OH)₄. The annual cycle of absolute NO₃ uptake (ρNO₃) and NH₄ uptake (ρNH₄) rates by phytoplankton in the upper mixed-layer showed a weak increasing trend from winter to spring/summer for the period 1992-1997. Rates were more variable at the nearshore station (P4). Rates of ρNO₃ were low along the entire line despite abundant NO₃ and low iron (Fe), at the offshore portion of Line P and sufficient Fe at the nearshore station (P4). As a result, new production contributed on average to only 32 ± 15% of the total nitrogen (N) uptake along Line P. NO₃ utilization in the NE subarctic Pacific is probably controlled by a combination of environmental variables, including Fe, light and ambient NH₄ levels. Elevated ambient NH₄ concentrations seem to decrease the rates of new production (and f-ratios) in surface waters of the oceanic subarctic NE Pacific. Contrary to expectation, phytoplankton biomass, nutrient utilization (ΔNO₃ and ΔSi(OH)₄), and nitrogen uptake (ρNO₃ + ρNH₄) varied relatively little along Line P, despite significant differences in the factors controlling phytoplankton composition assemblages and production. Future studies would benefit from including other variables, especially light limitation, to improve our understanding of the seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton biomass and nutrients in this region.     

A probabilistic model for rainfall—induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale

This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density.     

Taphonomy at two contiguous coastal rockshelters in Panama: Preliminary observations focusing on fishing and curing fish

The scarcity of animal products negatively influences nutrition in tropical inland areas, which lack large rivers. Consuming cured marine fish mitigates this deficiency. In Panama, trading cured fish from coastal to inland sites is documented ethnohistorically and can be inferred from the current archaeozoological record. Very large numbers of marine fish remains have been recovered at pre-Columbian sites located on and around Parita Bay, a mangrove-fringed estuary on the central Pacific coast. At Sitio Sierra, a farming village 12 km inland from the active marine shore, more than 70% of fish remains deposited between ca. 1800 and 1500 uncalibrated radiocarbon years BP proved to be of marine origin. Two small rock-shelters located downriver from Sitio Sierra and now 2.6 km from the marine shore (Vampiros-1 and Vampiros-2) show evidence for having been used intensively for fishing and preparing fish between ca. 2200 and 1900 BP. A prior model based on air photograph interpretation and sedimentological analyses of marine and terrigenous sediments suggest that these shelters would have been on or very near the active marine shore at this time. A much earlier occupation at Vampiros-1 dating to ca. 11,500–7700 BP corresponds to pre-agricultural (Paleoindian) and early agricultural (Early Preceramic) people who camped occasionally in this shelter when the transgressing ocean was in the process of flooding Parita Bay. No shell or bone was recovered in this earlier cultural component. In the more recent (2200–1900 BP), component abundant remains of marine mollusks and crustaceans and vertebrate bones (mostly fish) are in excellent condition. A synopsis of the geological and cultural history of the Vampiros shelters is followed by preliminary observations on the relationship between pre-Columbian human activities and these sites’ formation processes, soil chemistry, bone integrity and animal species. Evidence is accruing for human impacts on fish skeletons resulting from the in situ preparation of fish (i.e., gutting, cutting and smoking) providing the opportunity to compare our archaeofaunal data with the results of Irit Zohar's ethno-archeological research, which identified how preparing fish for salting and sun-drying at present-day Panamanian fishing villages around Parita Bay affects the fish skeleton physically and proportionally. There is a strong possibility that the Vampiros shelters were used to provision inland sites like Sitio Sierra with inshore marine fish although we cannot yet ascertain the means by which coastal foodstuffs may have arrived at the latter site.     

Failed magmatic eruptions: late-stage cessation of magma ascent

When a volcano becomes restless, a primary question is whether the unrest will lead to an eruption. Here we recognize four possible outcomes of a magmatic intrusion: “deep intrusion”, “shallow intrusion”, “sluggish/viscous magmatic eruption”, and “rapid, often explosive magmatic eruption”. We define “failed eruptions” as instances in which magma reaches but does not pass the “shallow intrusion” stage, i.e., when magma gets close to, but does not reach, the surface. Competing factors act to promote or hinder the eventual eruption of a magma intrusion. Fresh intrusion from depth, high magma gas content, rapid ascent rates that leave little time for enroute degassing, opening of pathways, and sudden decompression near the surface all act to promote eruption, whereas decreased magma supply from depth, slow ascent, significant enroute degassing and associated increases in viscosity, and impingement on structural barriers all act to hinder eruption. All of these factors interact in complex ways with variable results, but often cause magma to stall at some depth before reaching the surface. Although certain precursory phenomena, such as rapidly escalating seismic swarms or rates of degassing or deformation, are good indicators that an eruption is likely, such phenomena have also been observed in association with intrusions that have ultimately failed to erupt. A perpetual difficulty with quantifying the probability of eruption is a lack of data, particularly on instances of failed eruptions. This difficulty is being addressed in part through the WOVOdat database. Papers in this volume will be an additional resource for scientists grappling with the issue of whether or not an episode of unrest will lead to a magmatic eruption.     

Natural and anthropogenic heavy metals in estuarine cohesive sediments: geochemistry and bioavailability

The geochemistry, mineralogy, and grain size distribution of several estuarine cohesive sediment samples from potentially human-influenced areas without such an influence were analyzed to determine the natural heavy metal content and evaluate its impact on the Bahía Blanca estuarine environment. The data were compared with different ranges of concentrations for heavy metals in marine sediments established by the NOAA Screening Quick Reference Tables in which values range from background levels to those considered toxic to the marine environment. Our total heavy metal contents were below the established hazardous levels in all the analyzed samples, even though the potentially human-influenced areas (harbors, industry, urban spread) showed the highest total concentration values as well as greater percentages of bioavailable compounds. This would imply a low and not extensive anthropogenic input into the environment. The relatively high proportions in which Cd, Pb, and Cr appear as bioavailable compounds at some sites not influenced by human activity suggest the presence of a natural source for these elements. This could be attributed to the weathering of naturally occurring volcanic minerals, indicating that special care must be taken when monitoring of sediment for anthropogenic activity is carried out within this environment. According to the results obtained, and in order to minimize the environmental impact caused by periodic water injection dredging, relocation of sewage outfalls from vessel mooring areas into open waters is strongly recommended.     

Evaluating the sensitivity of DRASTIC using different data sources,interpretations and mapping approaches

When used in a comprehensive risk assessment framework, aquifer vulnerability maps are a tool to identify the relative susceptibility of the groundwater from sources of contamination at the land surface. The DRASTIC method was designed for use over large areas with a wide variety of geological and hydrogeologic settings as a screening tool in groundwater protection and management. In this study, a series of vulnerability maps were made for the Greater Oliver area, in south central Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, to test the sensitivity of the methodology to changes in input data type, interpretation, and mapping approaches. The study also illustrates how DRASTIC can be modified for use in areas of limited geological variability, where it may be important for smaller-scale changes in vulnerability to be recognized. Maps were produced using the original DRASTIC rating tables, a set of expanded tables using the original properties but modified ranges to accommodate the variability of data in the valley bottom region, and alternate tables, with modified properties and ranges. Differences in vulnerability rating for the maps using selected combinations and data interpretations are compared to the map using original DRASTIC rating tables using visual and statistical methods. One map was generated using expert hydrological knowledge. The modified tables allowed a greater amount of variability to be expressed in the valley bottom area compared to using the original tables and methods, and could provide a reasonable approach for assessing local scale variability for source water protection planning.     

Effects of Microcystis aeruginosa on life history of water flea Daphnia magna

Cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic freshwater systems are a worldwide problem, creating adverse effects for many aquatic organisms by producing toxic microcystins and deteriorating water quality. In this study, microcystins (MCs) in Microcystis aeruginosa, and Daphnia magna exposed to M. aeruginosa, were analyzed by HPLC-MS, and the effects of M. aeruginosa on D. magna were investigated. When D. magna was exposed to M. aeruginosa for more than 2 h, Microcystin-LR (MC-LR) was detected. When exposed to 1.5 × 106, 3 × 106, 0.75 × 107, and 1.5 × 107 cell/mL of M. aeruginosa for 96 h, average survival of D. magna for treatments were 23.33%, 33.33%, 13.33%, 16.67%, respectively, which were significantly lower than the average 100% survival in the control group (P < 0.05). The adverse effects of M. aeruginosa on body length, time for the first brood, brood numbers, gross fecundity, lifespan, and population growth of D. magna were density-dependent. These results suggest that the occurrence of M. aeruginosa blooms could strongly inhibit the population growth of D. magna through depression of survival, individual growth and gross fecundity. In the most serious situations, M. aeruginosa blooms could undermine the food web by eliminating filter-feeding zooplankton, which would destroy the ecological balance of aquaculture water bodies.     

Terrestrial photogrammetry without ground control points

Terrestrial photogrammetry should be the survey technique of choice when updating large scale urban maps and GIS databases, where 3D data and attribute data are required. Its main drawback is the need for Ground Control Points (GCP) to reference the survey. To make image georeferencing easier and to provide control information, the use of a simple system, made of a photogrammetric camera fastened to a GPS antenna, is proposed. A photogrammetric block, composed by at least three images, is taken around the object with the receiver measuring in kinematic mode. Tie points are automatically extracted by Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms or measured manually; block orientation is performed by GPS assisted Aerial Triangulation. Advantages as well as limitations of the system are discussed, with particular attention to GPS availability or ill-conditioned block configurations. The issue of system calibration (i.e. measurement of eccentricity between camera and antenna) is also addressed. Several test cases are presented, in which absolute accuracies, verified on check points independently surveyed range from 4 to 7 cm.     

Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA

To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics.