Further determinations of upper-atmosphere rotational speed from analysis of satellite orbits

The average angular velocity of the upper atmosphere, which we take as Λ times the Earth's angular velocity, can be evaluated by analysing the changes in the orbital inclinations of satellites. In this paper the nine most suitable orbits now available are analysed and values of Λ are found for heights between 200 and 260 km. The results, which are more accurate than in our previous studies, confirm that Λ 1, i.e. that the atmosphere rotates faster than the Earth at these heights, and show that Λ increases with height, from 1.1 at 210 km to 1.4 at 260 km. This corresponds to mean west-to-east winds of 30 m/s at 210 km, increasing to 130 m/s at 260 km height. Results from one satellite indicate that the wind is probably strongest at times near sunset, with Λ = 1.5 ± 0.1 at 200 km height in August 1966. Comparisons are made with previous observational results and some of the suggested theoretical explanations are outlined.     

Recovery of the seabed following marine aggregate dredging on the Hastings Shingle Bank off the southeast coast of England

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of dredging intensity on the physical and biological recovery times of the seabed following marine aggregate dredging. Two areas of seabed, previously subject to, respectively, relatively high and lower levels of dredging intensity, were identified on the Hastings Shingle Bank. Two reference areas were also selected for comparative purposes. All four sites were monitored annually over the period 2001–2004, using a combination of acoustic, video and grab sampling techniques. Since the site was last dredged in 1996, this was intended to provide a sequence of data 5–8 years after cessation of dredging. However, an unexpected resumption of dredging within the high intensity site, during 2002 and 2003, allowed an additional assessment of the immediate effects and aftermath of renewed dredging at the seabed. The early stages of recovery could then be assessed after dredging ceased in 2003. Results from both dredged sites provide a useful insight into the early and latter stages of physical and biological recovery. A comparison of recent and historic dredge track features provided evidence of track erosion. However, tracks were still visible 8 years after the cessation of dredging. Within the high dredging intensity site, recolonisation was relatively rapid after the cessation of dredging in 2003. Rather than indicating a full recovery, we suggest that this initial ‘colonization community’ may enter a transition phase before eventually reaching equilibrium. This hypothesis is supported by results from the low intensity site, where biological recovery was judged to have taken 7 years. Further monitoring is needed in order to test this. An alternative explanation is that the rapid recovery may be explained by the settlement of large numbers of Sabellaria spinulosa. As the resumption of dredging within the high intensity site limited our assessment of longer-term recovery it is not yet possible to assume that a 7-year biological recovery period will be applicable to other, more intensively dredged areas at this or more distant locations.     

Histopathological alterations in Mya arenaria following a # 2 fuel oil spill in the arthur kill, Elizabeth, New Jersey

Following a 2270000-liter #2 fuel oil spill on 1 January 1990 studies were carried out to evaluate histopathological alterations in a population of Mya arenaria inhabiting an impacted tidal mud flat in the Arthur Kill, Elizabeth, New Jersey. Approximately 30 clams were collected 1 week after the spill and on a monthly basis thereafter. The lesion incidence found in M. arenaria following the spill was compared to a base-line incidence established at the same location during 1988 and 1989. There was an increased incidence of moderate and severe lesions of the digestive gland, gills, and mantle 1 week after the spill, returning to pre-spill levels by 1 month. During the first 3 months post-spill an increase in lesion incidence of the intestines was observed which returned to previous levels by 6 months post-spill. The heart and kidney showed a latent increase in lesion incidence 2 and 3 months following the spill, which by 4 months returned to previous levels. Examination of the gonadal development indicated that ova and sperm development were not adversely affected and spawning occurred both in late spring and late summer. The siphon, gill, stomach, foot muscle, and body epithelium were not found to be adversely affected.     

The impact of inhomogenous background errors on a global wave data assimilation system

One of the main limitations in current wave data assimilation systems is the lack of an accurate representation of the structure of the background errors. In this work, models for the observational error variance, background error variance and background error correlations are developed based on the results of previous studies. These are tested in a global wave data assimilation system and the resulting wave forecasts are verified against independent observations from buoys. Forecasts of significant wave height show substantial improvement over the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's current operational wave forecasting system. However, forecasts of peak period are not similarly improved. The regional impacts of the new assimilation scheme are found to vary on a seasonal basis. Overall, it is shown that the inclusion of a latitudinally dependent background error, and improved specification of the background and observational error variances can reduce the root-mean-square error of 24-hour forecast Significant Wave Height by almost 10%.     

Derivation of water vapor fluxes from Lidar measurements

Two techniques are described by which the flux of water vapor can be derived from concentration measurements made by a Raman-Lidar. Monin-Obukhov similarity theory and dissipation techniques are used as the basis for these methods. The resulting fluxes are compared to fluxes from standard point instruments. The techniques described are appropriate for measuring the flux of any scalar quantity using Lidar measurements in the inner region of the boundary layer.     

Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 ^∘C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.     

Validation of the Canadian land surface scheme (class) for a subarctic open woodland

Abstract

This study reports on testing of the peatland version of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) for simulating the energy balance of subarctic open woodland terrain. Model results are compared against several years of measured data from a site near Churchill, Manitoba. In contrast to most forest environments, the floor of the open forest plays a large role in total ecosystem energy exchange. This behaviour presents a significant challenge for land surface models like CLASS and their simplified treatment of vegetation canopies.

Simulations of summer energy balance for seven years encompassing a wide range of meteorological conditions produced consistent results. Root mean square errors for sensible and latent heat fluxes fell between 11 and 28 W m^?2. CLASS consistently underestimated slightly the daily latent heat flux and overestimated the sensible heat flux, average mean bias errors being ‐7.6 and 9.1 W m^?2, respectively. The soil heat flux was less well represented. In general, CLASS was able to capture the diurnal and seasonal behaviour of the measured fluxes under a range of conditions with reasonable accuracy.

In a full year simulation, CLASS reproduced the annual variations in energy balance with some discrepancies associated with snow accumulation and ablation periods. The model performance was sensitive to both snow density and specification of the surface cover. Recommendations for improving the model for subarctic woodlands and terrain types with similar features are discussed.     

Late-Quaternary biogeographic scenarios for the brown bear (Ursus arctos), a wild mammal model species

This review provides an up-to-date synthesis of the matrilineal phylogeography of a uniquely well-studied Holarctic mammal, the brown bear. We extend current knowledge by presenting a DNA sequence derived from one of the earliest known fossils of a polar bear (dated to 115 000 years before present), a species that shares a paraphyletic mitochondrial association with brown bears. A molecular clock analysis of 140 mitochondrial DNA sequences, including our new polar bear sequence, provides novel insights into the times of origin for different brown bear clades. We propose a number of regional biogeographic scenarios based on genetic data, divergence time estimates and paleontological records. The case of the brown bear provides an example for researchers working with less well-studied taxa: it shows clearly that phylogeographic models based on patterns of modern genetic variation alone can be substantially improved by including data on historical patterns of genetic diversity in the form of ancient DNA sequences derived from accurately dated samples and by using an approach to divergence-time estimation that suits the data under analysis. Using such approaches it has been possible to (i) establish that the processes shaping modern genetic diversity in brown bears acted recently, within the last three glacial cycles; (ii) distinguish among hypotheses concerning species’ responses to climatic oscillations in accordance with the lack of phylogeographic structure that existed in brown bears prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM); (iii) reassess theories linking monophyletic brown bear populations to particular LGM refuge areas; and (iv) identify vicariance events and track analogous patterns of migration by brown bears out of Eurasia to North America and Japan.