Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

In this paper, we discuss the results of 2000?C2100 simulations following the emissions associated with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) with a chemistry-climate model, focusing on the changes in 1) atmospheric composition (troposphere and stratosphere) and 2) associated environmental parameters (such as nitrogen deposition). In particular, we find that tropospheric ozone is projected to decrease (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6) or increase (RCP8.5) between 2000 and 2100, with variations in methane a strong contributor to this spread. The associated tropospheric ozone global radiative forcing is shown to be in agreement with the estimate used in the RCPs, except for RCP8.5. Surface ozone in 2100 is projected to change little compared from its 2000 distribution, a much-reduced impact from previous projections based on the A2 high-emission scenario. In addition, globally-averaged stratospheric ozone is projected to recover at or beyond pre-1980 levels. Anthropogenic aerosols are projected to strongly decrease in the 21st century, a reflection of their projected decrease in emissions. Consequently, sulfate deposition is projected to strongly decrease. However, nitrogen deposition is projected to increase over certain regions because of the projected increase in NH₃ emissions.     

The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets

The relationship between long-term climate goals and short/medium-term emission targets forms crucial information for the design of international climate policy. Since IPCC??s 4th Assessment Report (AR4), a large number of new scenario studies have been published. This paper reviews this new literature and finds that there is more flexibility in the timing of short-term emission reductions compared to the earlier scenarios assessed by the AR4. For instance, the current literature suggests that a peak of emissions in 2020 and even 2030 would be consistent with limiting temperature change to about 2??C in the long term. The timing when emissions peak depends on whether negative emissions in the long-term can be achieved. The recent scenarios further indicate that global emissions by 2050 should be 40?C80% below 2000 levels. Above all, the paper argues that there is no clear, single ??law?? that would directly determine the required emissions levels in 2020, but that instead policy-makers need to consider trade-offs between the likelihood of achieving long-term targets, the short-term costs, and their expectation with respect to future technologies (and their possible failure). The higher flexibility might be important in finding acceptable agreements on international climate policy.     

Destabilization of hydrodynamically stable rotation laws by azimuthal magnetic fields

We consider the effect of toroidal magnetic fields on hydrodynamically stable Taylor–Couette differential rotation flows. For current-free magnetic fields a non-axisymmetric   m = 1  magnetorotational instability arises when the magnetic Reynolds number exceeds   O (100)  . We then consider how this 'azimuthal magnetorotational instability' (AMRI) is modified if the magnetic field is not current-free, but also has an associated electric current throughout the fluid. This gives rise to current-driven Tayler instabilities (TIs) that exist even without any differential rotation at all. The interaction of the AMRI and the TI is then considered when both electric currents and differential rotation are present simultaneously. The magnetic Prandtl number Pm turns out to be crucial in this case. Large Pm have a destabilizing influence, and lead to a smooth transition between the AMRI and the TI. In contrast, small Pm have a stabilizing influence, with a broad stable zone separating the AMRI and the TI. In this region the differential rotation is acting to stabilize the TIs, with possible astrophysical applications (Ap stars). The growth rates of both the AMRI and the TI are largely independent of Pm , with the TI acting on the time-scale of a single rotation period, and the AMRI slightly slower, but still on the basic rotational time-scale. The azimuthal drift time-scale is ∼20 rotations, and may thus be a (flip-flop) time-scale of stellar activity between the rotation period and the diffusion time.     

Bioenergy in energy transformation and climate management

This study explores the importance of bioenergy to potential future energy transformation and climate change management. Using a large inter-model comparison of 15 models, we comprehensively characterize and analyze future dependence on, and the value of, bioenergy in achieving potential long-run climate objectives. Model scenarios project, by 2050, bioenergy growth of 1 to 10 % per annum reaching 1 to 35 % of global primary energy, and by 2100, bioenergy becoming 10 to 50 % of global primary energy. Non-OECD regions are projected to be the dominant suppliers of biomass, as well as consumers, with up to 35 % of regional electricity from biopower by 2050, and up to 70 % of regional liquid fuels from biofuels by 2050. Bioenergy is found to be valuable to many models with significant implications for mitigation and macroeconomic costs of climate policies. The availability of bioenergy, in particular biomass with carbon dioxide capture and storage (BECCS), notably affects the cost-effective global emissions trajectory for climate management by accommodating prolonged near-term use of fossil fuels, but with potential implications for climate outcomes. Finally, we find that models cost-effectively trade-off land carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for the long-run climate change management benefits of bioenergy. The results suggest opportunities, but also imply challenges. Overall, further evaluation of the viability of large-scale global bioenergy is merited.     

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework.     

Scenarios in Global Environmental Assessments: Key characteristics and lessons for future use

Over the last 10 years a large set of global environmental assessment studies has been published that include scenario projections. Comparison of these studies shows that there is actually a limited set of scenario families that form the basis of many scenarios used in different environmental assessments. Mapping these scenario families allow a simpler comparison across the different assessments. The fact that many assessments can be positioned within these families gives some confidence of their relevance. It is also noticeable that several recent assessments have been focusing on more focussed policy-scenarios as variant to a single baseline. This is partly a response to a different stage in the policy-making process. While there are clear advantages of both categories of scenarios (explorative scenarios and baseline/policy variants), it might be important to test the robustness of scenario outcomes of the policy-scenario approach against the different storyline scenario-families identified in this paper.     

The IMO Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO): Architectural Design

This paper describes the progress on the Virtual Meteor Observatory (VMO), a database which is being developed at ESA/RSSD to store video meteor observations and their derived orbits. The VMO was triggered by a discussion which took place at the first Meteor Orbit Determination (MOD) workshop in Roden, The Netherlands, in September 2006. Representatives of 15 groups working on the determination of meteor orbits and working with the resulting orbits discussed the design and implementation of a database which would combine different meteor orbit datasets. From this the concept of the VMO was born, which will, in the long run, allow accessing meteor observations via the internet. In the beginning, it will focus on meteor orbit data obtained with video systems. This paper presents the architectural design of the database as it has been defined in the meantime.     

The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO₂ concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies—e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO₂).     

Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-equivalent concentrations

This paper assesses regional abatement action and costs for two scenarios in which atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise at 450 and 550 ppm CO₂-equivalent. It evaluates two allocation schemes: Multi-Stage and Contraction & Convergence. It was found that abatement costs as percentages of GDP vary significantly by region, with high costs for the Middle East and the former Soviet Union, medium costs for the OECD regions and low costs or even gains for (other) developing regions. In addition to the abatement costs they incur, fossil-fuel-exporting regions are also likely to be affected by losses of coal and oil exports while the former Soviet Union and South America could experience increased bio-energy exports. Especially in the former Soviet Union and Asia, non-CO₂ abatement options are important in the short term in reducing their emissions. Carbon capture and storage, energy efficiency improvements, bio-energy use and the use of renewables dominate reductions in the long term in all regions. It was found that the regional costs are influenced more by the assumed stabilisation level and baseline scenario than by the allocation regimes explored or the assumptions for different technologies.