Trace element compositions of minerals in garnet and spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Vitim volcanic field, Transbaikalia, eastern Siberia

Peridotite xenoliths from the Bereya alkali picrite tuff in the Vitim volcanic province of Transbaikalia consist of garnet lherzolite, garnet–spinel lherzolite and spinel lherzolite varieties. The volcanism is related to the Cenozoic Baikal Rift. All peridotites come from pressures of 20–23 kbar close to the garnet to spinel peridotite transition depth, and the presence of garnet can be attributed to cooling of spinel peridotites, probably during formation of the lithosphere. The peridotites show petrographic and mineral chemical evidence for infiltration by an alkaline silicate melt shortly before their transport to the Earth's surface. The melt infiltration event is indicated petrographically by clinopyroxenes which mimic melt morphologies, and post-dates outer kelyphitic rims on garnets which are attributed to an isochemical heating event within the mantle before transport to the Earth's surface. Single-mineral thermometry gives reasonable temperature estimates of 1050±50°C, whereas two-mineral methods involving clinopyroxene are falsified by secondary components in clinopyroxene introduced during the melt infiltration event. Excimer Laser–ICP-MS analysis has been performed for an extensive palette of both incompatible and compatible trace elements, and manifests the most thorough dataset available for this rock type. Orthopyroxene and garnet show only partial equilibration of trace elements with the infiltrating melt, whereas clinopyroxene and amphibole are close to equilibration with the melt and with each other. The incompatible element composition of the infiltrating melt calculated from the clinopyroxene and amphibole analyses via experimental mineral/melt partition coefficients is similar to the host alkali picrite, and probably represents a low melt fraction from a similar source during rift propagation. The chemistry and chronology of the events recorded in the xenoliths delineates the series of events expected during the influence of an expanding rift region in the upper mantle, namely the progressive erosion of the lithosphere and the episodic upward and outward propagation of melts, resulting in the evolution of the Vitim volcanic field.     

The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 °C—insights from integrated assessment modelling

Limiting climate change to 2 °C with a high probability requires reducing cumulative emissions to about 1600 GtCO₂ over the 2000–2100 period. This requires unprecedented rates of decarbonization even in the short-run. The availability of the option of net negative emissions, such as bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or reforestation/afforestation, allows to delay some of these emission reductions. In the paper, we assess the demand and potential for negative emissions in particular from BECCS. Both stylized calculations and model runs show that without the possibility of negative emissions, pathways meeting the 2 °C target with high probability need almost immediate emission reductions or simply become infeasible. The potential for negative emissions is uncertain. We show that negative emissions from BECCS are probably limited to around 0 to 10 GtCO₂/year in 2050 and 0 to 20 GtCO₂/year in 2100. Estimates on the potential of afforestation options are in the order of 0–4 GtCO₂/year. Given the importance and the uncertainty concerning BECCS, we stress the importance of near-term assessments of its availability as today’s decisions has important consequences for climate change mitigation in the long run.     

Properties of adjoint sea ice sensitivities to atmospheric forcing and implications for the causes of the long term trend of Arctic sea ice

Based on adjoint sensitivities of the coupled Massachusetts Institute of Technology ocean–sea ice circulation model, the potential influence of thermodynamic atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of the September sea ice area (AREA) and volume (VOLUME) in the Arctic is investigated for the three periods 1980–1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2009. Sensitivities suggest that only large forcing anomalies prior to the spring melting onset in May can influence the September sea ice characteristics while even small changes in the atmospheric variables during subsequent months can significantly influence September sea ice state. Specifically, AREA close to the ice edge in the Arctic seas is highly sensitive to thermodynamic atmospheric forcing changes from June to July. In contrast, VOLUME is highly sensitive to atmospheric temperature changes occurring during the same period over the central parts of the Arctic Ocean. A comparison of the sea ice conditions and sensitivities during three different periods reveals that, due to the strong decline of sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness, sea ice area became substantially more sensitive to the same amplitude thermodynamic atmospheric forcing anomalies during 2000–2009 relative to the earlier periods. To obtain a quantitative estimate of changes that can be expected from existing atmospheric trends, adjoint sensitivities are multiplied by monthly temperature differences between 1980s and two following decades. Strongest contributions of surface atmospheric temperature differences to AREA and VOLUME changes are observed during May and September. The strongest contribution from the downward long-wave heat flux to AREA changes occurs in September and to VOLUME changes in July–August. About 62 % of the AREA decrease simulated by the model can be explained by summing all contributions to the thermodynamic atmospheric forcing. The changing sea ice state (sensitivity) is found to enhance the decline and accounts for about one third of the explained reduction. For the VOLUME decrease, the explained fraction of the decrease is only about 37 %.     

Vulnerability,resilience and development discourses in context of climate change

The paper discusses how the current climate change debate influences the way in which development is conceptualised, negotiated and implemented. The objective of the article is to explore some of the underlying controversies that characterise development discourses in the context of climate change. Adaptation to climate change goes along with a significant shift in discourses used to deal with what is normally called development. This is reflected in shifting research interests and perspectives, from vulnerability studies to resilience thinking. However, the paper argues, this shift is problematic for the normative contents of development and especially for a pro-poor and grass roots perspective.     

Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.     

Novel 23,28-bisnorlupanes in Tertiary sediments. Widespread occurrence of nuclear demethylated triterpanes

A pair of isomeric C₂₈-bisnorlupanes was detected in high abundance in the saturated hydrocarbon fractions of Tertiary sediments from West Greenland and the Gulf of Suez. The compounds were isolated by preparative gas chromatography and the isomers separated by liquid chromatography. On the basis of mass spectrometric and nuclear magnetic resonance data the structures were assigned to be 17α(H)- and 17ß(H)-23,28-bisnorlupane, respectively. The significance of nuclear demethylated triterpanes is discussed in terms of their generally high abundance, their uneven distribution within a given facies, and their worldwide occurrence.     

Dealing with locally-driven degradation: A quick start option under REDD+

The paper reviews a number of challenges associated with reducing degradation and its related emissions through national approaches to REDD+ under UNFCCC policy. It proposes that in many countries, it may in the short run be easier to deal with the kinds of degradation that result from locally driven community over-exploitation of forest for livelihoods, than from selective logging or fire control. Such degradation is low-level, but chronic, and is experienced over very large forest areas. Community forest management programmes tend to result not only in reduced degradation, but also in forest enhancement; moreover they are often popular, and do not require major political shifts. In principle these approaches therefore offer a quick start option for REDD+. Developing reference emissions levels for low-level locally driven degradation is difficult however given that stock losses and gains are too small to be identified and measured using remote sensing, and that in most countries there is little or no forest inventory data available. We therefore propose that forest management initiatives at the local level, such as those promoted by community forest management programmes, should monitor, and be credited for, only the net increase in carbon stock over the implementation period, as assessed by ground level surveys at the start and end of the period. This would also resolve the problem of nesting (ensuring that all credits are accounted for against the national reference emission level), since communities and others at the local level would be rewarded only for increased sequestration, while the national reference emission level would deal only with reductions in emissions from deforestation and degradation.     

Accurate Ocean Bottom Seismometer Positioning Method Inspired by Multilateration Technique

The positioning of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) is a key step in the processing flow of OBS data, especially in the case of self popup types of OBS instruments. The use of first arrivals from airgun shots, rather than relying on the acoustic transponders mounted in the OBS, is becoming a trend and generally leads to more accurate positioning due to the statistics from a large number of shots. In this paper, a linearization of the OBS positioning problem via the multilateration technique is discussed. The discussed linear solution solves jointly for the average water layer velocity and the OBS position using only shot locations and first arrival times as input data.